Welcome to OGGoldy’s 2022 Minnesota Legislature election preview. Borders are known, endorsements have been given (or not given), and candidates have filed. Primary is in August with General election for all 201 seats in November, all under new lines. Senate districts contain perfectly nested halves, A and B, of equal populations.
Here are the copies of the official maps as imposed by a tripartisan judicial panel, as every map going back to the 1960s has been, transposed into DRA. Election results cited in each district are 2020 President Trump (R) vs Biden (D), 2018 Gubernatorial Johnson (R) vs Walz (D), and 2016 Presidential Trump (R) vs Clinton (D)
https://davesredistricting.org/join/258a5c0d-2aca-480f-959f-6506acc838f2
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6c555f45-86d6-441d-bd76-11ea80fe9244
District 1 (~Old 1): Northwest Minnesota. This area bloats due to massive population loss. 1A takes it all of Lake of the Woods County. 1B takes in half of Norman County plus some more. Representatives John Burkel, Debra Kiel and Senator Mark Johnson all Rs, all live in their existing districts. Johnson faces a primary against retired engineers Dave Hughes, the 2nd place GOP primary in CD-7 against now Representative Michelle Fischbach. Johnson has the endorsement, but Hughes is a couple steps above Some Dude, and Johnson should prevail. No Dem filed in SD-1. Burkel faces a slightly-above-Some Dude candidate in Dem James Sceville, a local politician in Theif River Falls, but Burkel is safe. Kiel faces 2020 opponent Cindy Ansbacher, Kiel will win but a comparable 40-point margin she put up in 2020.
House 1A: 68-30 Trump (’20), 60-36 Johnson, 64-28 Trump (’16)
House 1B: 62-36 Trump (’20), 55-41 Walz, 59-33 Trump (’16)
District 2 (~Old 2A and 5B): This district lies directly to the east of SD1 in NW Minnesota. To accommodate the expansion of next-door District 1, 2A becomes almost all of Beltrami County, and is most closely aligned with the old HD-5A due to population loss, this region sheds a House district. HD-2B State Rep Steve Green (R) is running for the technically vacant Senate Seat, as SD-2 incumbent Paul Utke’s (R) house was drawn into SD-5 as is running there. HD-2A incumbent Matt Grossel is running in his current seat, though covering a lot of new territory in Bemidji which shifts this seat 20 points to the left into the competitive realm. Dems are running Beltrami County Commissioner Reed Olson, and are pumping a lot of resources into his rural populist campaign. HD-5A incumbent Matt Bliss (R) is running in 2A, as his old seat is the majority within this new configured 2A. Bliss is running against Bemidji State University executive Erika Bailey Johnson, but the district is too red to be competitive in spite of Bliss’s previous win-some-lose-some electoral record the last few cycles.
House 2A: 51-47 Trump (’20), 49-47 Walz, 51-39 Trump (’16)
House 2B: 59-39 Trump (’20) 53-43 Johnson, 58-35 Trump (’16)
District 3: (~Old 3A and 6B: Welcome to the northern side of the Iron Range and the BWCA / Arrowhead. The seat largely resembles the old seat, just bloating to make up for lost population. Senator Tom Bakk (I) retired after a career that saw him go from the Senate Majority Leader as a Dem, to being a turncoat independent that propped up a narrow Republican majority in the Senate after an unceremonious coup following the 2020 elections. The race to succeed him his quite bitterly divided, on every front other than mining, as every candidate is trying to out-pro-mining everyone else. Republicans endorsed Babbitt mayor Andrea Zupancich, who is seen as a bit of a loose cannon, so former iron mining executive Kelsey Johnson is moving forward into the Republican primary. Zapancich is a strong favorite in the primary. Awaiting the winner in November is Hermantown city councilman Grand Hauschild (D). It is ancestrally as Dem as any place in the state, but has been moving rightward at an alarming clip. If Bakk endorses a candidate, that candidate instantly becomes the favorite, but he has not endorsed anyone yet, and very well may not. Dem State Reps Rob Ecklund is running for reelection in HD-3A against the winner of a Republican primary in his seat. Roger Skraba, the mayor of Ely is the favorite in his primary and is running with the party’s endorsement against former John Hoeven staffer Blain Johnson. Mary Murphy (D), first elected in 1976 is running for reelection again in HD-3B against Republican Some Dude Natalie Zeleznikar.
House 3A: 52-46 Trump (’20), (52-45 Walz, 50-42 Trump (’16)
House 3B: 52-46 Biden, 57-38 Walz, 48-44 Clinton
District 4: This is Moorhead and the immediate surrounding area. SD4 was the ONLY district in the northern 60% of the state that was OVERpopulated and therefore shrunk ever so slightly geographically. Still, Dems hold all 3 seats here, but 2 of them are retiring and are among the most likely seats in the state to flip from left to right. Senate Kent Eken retired instead of running as the only Dem in a Trump won seat remaining in the Senate. Democrats have settled on an unconventional candidate in KVRR (Fargo Fox affiliate) chief meteorologist Rob Kupec to carry the blue banner in SD-3. Dems Heather Keeler, Paul Marquart and Kent Eken all live here and in their predecessor seats. There is a primary on the Republican side, with former Moorhead city councilman Dan Bohmer getting the party endorsement, but right-wing activist Edwin Hahn. Hahn is best known for being a former Republican Party of Clay County Chair, but due to his unhinged behavior was ousted from his post by the party itself. If Hahn wins, Dems are a coin flip to hold, but Bohmer is a prohibitive favorite if he gets through the primary. Freshman Dem incumbent Heather Keeler is running for reelection in by far the more liberal half of the senate seat in 4A against Republican psychologist Lynn Halmrast. In the decidedly more conservative 4B, serial over-performing Democrat Paul Marquart is retiring, and this seat is almost certainly going to flip to the Republicans in November as Hawley mayor Jim Joy is a prohibitive favorite against Some Dude Dem John Hest.
House 4A: 57-40 Biden, 57-38 Walz, 49-40 Clinton
House 4B: 59-38 Trump (’20), 54-42 Johnson, 58-34 Trump (’16)
District 5: This district doesn’t really have a precedessor district on the 5A side, as it takes parts from a BUNCH of now defunct districts, while 5B is kinda-sorta a successor to 9A.In the senate seat, SD-2 incumbent Paul Utke is running here after his home was drawn in here and the local state senator Paul Gazelka went all-in on his gubernatorial election and came up short. That being said, not only is their a primary, but the local party endorsed AGAINST Utke, going instead with retired army veteran Bret Bussman, a “both parties are far too liberal” and “separation of church and state shouldn’t be a thing” kind of guy. Utke seems like a coinflip in the primary. Whoever wins the primary will win in November in this heavily conservative north central Minnesota district against Dem Some Dude John Peters. The House side is only marginally more boring, even without any incumbents. Lake Shore mayor Krista Knudsen is going to win easily against Hubbard County Democratic Party Vice Chair Brian Hobson in 5A. On the other hand in 5B, the local convention chose conservative activist and COVID denier Mike Wiener, an otherwise Some Dude level candidate against Wadena GOP Chair, and Wadena County Commissioner Sheldon Monson. Monson is moving ahead to the primary against Wiener, and is generally seen as the favorite. Either way, whichever man wins will be the next Representative in central Minnesota, as no Dems filed at all, and only a random independent candidate filed against Weiner and Munson.
House 5A: 61-37 Trump (’20) 62-34 Johnson, 67-27 Trump (’16)
House 5B: 62-35 Trump (’20) 65-32 Johnson, 61-31 Trump (’16)
District 6: The closest predecessor district here was the old SD-10, but this is based further south than the old version.. GOP Senators Carrie Ruud (SD-10) and Justin Eichorn (SD-5) were both drawn into this seat. Ruud and Eichorn went to the convention, and Eichorn left with the endorsement and Ruud withdrew, leaving Eichorn as the prohibitive favorite in the general election against former State House Sergeant at Arms Steve Samuelson, the son of former State Senate President Don Samuelson, who represented some of this area in the state legislature from 1969-2003. 10A Representative Dale Lueck (R) is not running for reelection, and Spencer Igo (R) is opting to move homes to run in next door in 7A which contains more of his base, but not his Grand Rapids house, leaving this seat officially open in spite of having 2 incumbents drawn in it. Local pastor Ben Davis won the party’s endorsement, and is a prohibitive favorite to be the next representative here. Meanwhile in 6B, Josh Heintzman gets a brand-new district, with the only difference between this seat and the old 10A is the fact Heintzman’s tiny home down of Nisswa changes into the Brainerd-based 6B, so this district is 95% new to him, but he does live here. Heintzman faces a token primary challenge from the right from Some Dude Doug Kern. Heintzman should win his primary and coast to reelection in his new district against Dem Some Dude Sally Boos
House 6A: 61-37 Trump (’20), 55-41 Johnson, 59-34 Trump (’16)
House 6B: 62-36 Trump (’20), 57-39 Johnson, 61-31 Trump (’16)
District 7: This is the successor district to the old SD-7, but expanded further south due to being short on population. Dave Tomassoni (D->I), Tom Bakk’s right hand man is retiring due to an aggressive case of ALS, departing with a rather emotional speech on the Senate floor via text to speak from his wheelchair, as he can no longer talk nor walk. His retirement leaves open this recently strong Republican district. Republicans settled on 2016 and 2020 HD-6A candidate Rob Farnsworth who lost twice to DFL representative Julie Sandstede, once quite narrowly. This seat is a LOT juicier for him, and he is quite likely to end of in the State Senate come November. Dems have a primary between Ben DeNucci, and Kim McLaughlin, neither one of which have much of a chance in November, though DeNucci should be favored in the primary as he has the DFL endorsement. In 7A we have our first member-on-member general election. Freshman Republican Spencer Igo is running against 3 term DFLer Julie Sandstede, mentioned above. It’s hard to see Sandstede holding on again after winning by the skin of her teeth in 2020 under bluer lines. Still, she is well financed and isn’t phoning it in. 7B is slightly less conservative than 7A, but is still redder than it was prior to redistricting and political shifts in the region. DFL Representtive Dave Lislegaard is running for reelection in this Trump+4 seat. There isn’t much in terms of a Republican bench in the eastern Iron Range, so Matt Norri doesn’t have an A or B level political resume, but given the trends and map of this district, he is probably even money against Lislegaard.
House 7A: 55-43 Trump (’20), 51-44 Walz, 51-41 Trump (’16)
House 7B: 51-47 Trump (’20), 56-40 Walz, 47-44 Trump (’16)
District 8: Duluth, formerly numbered SD-7. It’s very blue, and it’s not getting a larger population so the borders puffed out a bit to fill out population. Jennifer Schultz and Liz Olsen keep their districts, and Senator Jen McEwen is also in there. Senator Jen McEwen (D) is running against UMD college student Alex Moe (R), little more than a sacrificial lamb. Incumbent Representative Liz Olson (D) is running for reelection in 8B, and there is a GOP primary after the local convention didn’t endorse a candidate. But Allan Kehr and Ary Johnson aren’t threats to Olson. The other Duluth based state Rep Jen Schultz is leaving the legislature behind to take on Congressman Pete Stauber (R) in MN-8. To replace her the local DFL endorsed city official Alicia Kozlowski. Duluth City Councilman Arik Forsman is going forward with a primary anyways, but Kozlowski is a marginal favorite in the primary given her endorsement. Whichever DFLer gets through the primary will be a State Rep after defeating Republican nominee Becky Hall.
House 8A: 67-30 Biden, 68-27 Walz, 59-31 Clinton
House 8B: 70-28 Biden, 69-27 Walz, 60-30 Clinton
District 9 West central Minnesota, deeply conservative farmland with Fergus Falls being the only town of any note out there. Due to massive population loss, this seat is essentially a combination of the old 8A, 8B and 12A, so this is a place in outstate where a House seat was lost due to population shifts. Current 8B Representative Jordan Rasmussen (R) is running for what is an open senate seat following the retirement of long-time State Senator Bill Ingebrigtsen. Rasmussen does face a token primary challenger from the more fringe right in Nathan Miller, but the primary is a formality here, as is the general election against local attorney Cornel Walker (D). 12A Rep Jeff Backer (R) is running safely for reelection in the new 9A and will win the November election against DFL Some Dude Nancy Jost. In District 9B there will be a new Representative, and his name is Tom Murphy (R), a retired local farmer, after he defeats DFL Some Dude Jason Satter.
House 9A: 63-35 Trump (’20), 57-39 Johnson, 61-31 Trump (’16)
House 9B: 68-30 Trump (’20), 63-34 Johnson, 66-27 Trump (’16)
District 10 This is a greatly reconfigured district that takes in a large chunk of rural central Minnesota between St. Cloud and Brainard. Former State Rep Jim Newberger (R), best known as the sacrificial lamb who got flatted by Amy Klobuchar in 2018, former State Rep circa 1982-2000, and local activist Nathan Wesenberg fought to a drew at the local convention and none of them received the endorsement. Newberger is probably the slight favorite in the primary, but it is not clear how strong that favorite status is. Either way, whichever man wins, they will be a newly minted state Senator after he defeats Suzanne Cekalla (D) in November. Representative Ron Kresha is safe for reelection against Dem Chuck Parins (D) in 10A. In 10B there is another non-endorsement primary on the Republican side. Nothing really stands out between Blake Paulson, Isaac Schultz or John Ulrick, but one of them will be a state representative next year after winning his primary and then a general election against Dem Hunter Froelich.
House 10A: 68-30 Trump (’20), 61-36 Johnson, 66-28 Trump (’16)
House 10B: 76-22 Trump (’20), 67-29 Johnson, 74-20 Trump (’16)
District 11 This is more or less the old SD-11, which keeps numbering easy here. Senator Jason Rarick is running for reelection and will win another term against Dem John Puera. 2020 HD-11A nominee Jeff Dotseth is back for a second bite at the apple, but this time the seat is open as DFL incumbent Mike Sundin has retired. Dotseth did well in 2020 and is a strong candidate in this right-trending Clinton-Walz-Biden seat. Dems are not punting though, and have recruited prominent local lawyer Pete Radosevich (D). This is going to be an immensely competitive election. In 11B, incumbent Nathan Nelson is running for reelection and will face a far less interesting November in the far-redder half of this district against local Dem Eric Olson.
House 11A: 49.17-48.51 Biden, 55-41 Walz, 56-45 Clinton
House 11B: 66-32 Trump (’20), 56-39 Johnson, 62-31 Trump (’16)
District 12 Western Minnesota, with 12B basically being Alexandria, and 12A being the sparsely populated areas south and west of Alexandria. This is as cut at dry as possible, as Senator Torrey Westom, and Representatives Paul Anderson, and Mary Franson are all running for reelection in safely Republican seats. Dems Kari Dorry, Edie Barrett and Jeremy Vinar are the Dems they will defeat, respectively.
House 12A: 65-33 Trump (’20), 57-40 Johnson, 60-32 Trump (’16)
House 12B: 67-31 Trump (’20), 62-36 Johnson, 66-27 Trump (’16)
District 13 This is the populated parts of Stearns County that is not St. Cloud, very similar to the old version of SD-13. Much like SD-12, this one is easy, as all 3 incumbent Republicans are running for reelection in safely Republican seats; in this case it’s Senator Jeff Howe and Representatives Lisa Demuth and Tim O’Driscoll who are running and going to win against Democrats Alissa Brickman, Andrea Robinson, and Melissa Bromenschenkel.
House 13A: 69-29 Trump (’20), 62-35 Johnson, 66-27 Trump (’16)
House 13B: 61-36 Trump (’20), 58-39 Johnson, 62-30 Trump (’16)
District 14 St. Cloud. This is going to be hotly contested turf, as it always is these days. Senator Aric Putnam (D), a St. Cloud State University Professor is facing 14A Representative Tama Theis in one of the truly marquee races of the entire election cycle, as SD-14 is the 34th is absolutely necessary for Republicans to retrain their majority, and Dems have little margin for a majority without it (though it does exist). In the seat Theis leaves behind, Republicans have tapped local businesswoman Bernie Perryman, while Dems have turned to retired teacher Tami Calhoun. In the slightly more liberal HD-14B incumbent Dan Wolgamott is running for reelection against St. Cloud restaurant owner Aaron Henning. Both House seats are also expected to be competitive, in addition to the Senate seat.
House 14A: 49-48 Biden, 50-46 Walz, 49-41 Trump (’16)
House 14B: 50-46 Biden, 50-45 Walz, 49-41 Trump (’16)
District 15 Western Minnesota, south of the Minnesota River. This seat is very similar to the old SD-16, but has grown geographically due to population losses in the area. Senator Gary Dahms and Representatives Chris Swedzinski and Paul Torkelson are all safe for reelection in their respective seats against Ania Gaul, Keith VanOverbeke, and Tom Kuster.
House 15A: 63-35 Trump (’20), 55-41 Johnson, 60-31 Trump (’16)
House 15B: 67-31 Trump (’20), 57-40 Johnson 65-27 Trump (’16)
District 16 This seat most resembles the old SD-17, being the northern bank of the Minnesota River up to Wilmar and Litchfield. Much like the rest of rural, conservative western Minnesota there is going to be little turnover as Senator Andrew Lange and Representatives Dean Urdahl and Dave Baker are all safe for reelection against Fernando Alvarado, Robert Wright and Fred Cogelow, their Dem opponents.
House 16A: 67-31 Trump (’20), 57-39 Johnson, 63-29 Trump (’16)
House 16B: 62-36 Trump (’20), 56-40 Johnson, 59-33 Trump (’16)
District 17 Here we are getting closer to being considered SW Metro exurbs, taking in Hutchinson to parts of Carver County. The successor district to the old SD-18, it moves considerably further towards the metro as the remaining rural seats have grown in size, and thus also has considerable turf from the old HD-47A. Senator Scott Newman (R) is retiring from this seat after his home was drawn out of this district, and he ended up double bunked with Lange next door in SD-16Old 18B incumbent Representative Glenn Gruenhagen is running for a promotion to the Senate and will get it after a November victory over 2020 Dem nominee against Newman: Chad Tschimperle. Republican activist Dawn Gillman will be the next Representative from 17A after she defeats DFLer Jennifer Carpentier. Sibley County Commissioner Bobbie Harder is unopposed in the primary and general election, so congratulations to Representative Bobbie Harder on her unanimous victory.
House 17A: 67-30 Trump (’20), 62-34 Johnson, 65-26 Trump (’16)
House 17B: 67-31 Trump (’20), 61-35 Johnson, 66-26 Trump (’16)
District 18 Mankato and the surrounding area. This district is little changed from the old SD-19. Dem Senator Nick Fretnz is running against Republican retired businessman Mark Wright. In one of the biggest upsets and surprises of the 2020 election was Republican Susan Akland unseating Dem State Rep Jeff Brand by 108 votes. Brand is running for a second round, and both sides are putting this race as a priority and expect it to be razor close again. In the bluer 18B, which is basically Mankato proper, Dem Luke Frederick is safe for reelection against Republican Some Dude Dar Vosburg.
House 18A: 50-47 Biden, 58-39 Walz, 47-43 Trump (’16)
House 18B: 58-39 Biden, 63-32 Johnson, 48-40 Clinton
District 19 This seat is essentially Fairbault (19A) and Owatanna (19B) which lie half way between Minneapolis and the Iowa border on I-35, and is the successor district to the old SD-24. Like other rural districts this cycle, this has 3 Republican incumbents running against token Dem opposition. Senator John Jasinski and Reps Brian Daniels and John Petersburg will handily defeat Dems Kate Falvey, Carolyn Treadway and Abdulahi Ali Osman in November.
House 19A: 60-37 Trump (’20), 53-43 Johnson, 58-33 Trump (’16)
House 19B: 59-38 Trump (’20), 53-43 Johnson, 58-33 Trump (’16)
District 20 This is southeastern Minnesota along the border with Wisconsin down the Mississippi River, it’s a successor district to the old SD-21. Representative Steve Drazkowski, one of 4 members of the of the right-wing splinter caucus within the Minnesota House is running for Senate after incumbent Mike Goggin retired earlier this year before maps were drawn. He faced fellow state Rep Barb Haley, a more traditional Republican politico in the convention and won the endorsement against her. Drazkowski will win against Dem Some Dude Brad Drenckhahn in November. Because the incumbent Senator retired and both State reps vied for a promotion, but HD-20A and HD-20B are both open. There was no GOP endorsement at the convention in 20A, so Jesse Johnson and Pam Altendorf are both headed to a primary. Whoever emerges will be the prohibitive favorite against Dem Laurel Stinson in November. In 20B, Winona County Commissioner Steve Jacobs won the endorsement, and will be the next State Rep from 20B after defeating DFLer Elise Diesslin, a former Elgin City Councilwoman.
House 20A: 54-43 Trump (’20), 48.20-47.56 Johnson, 52-39 Trump (’16)
House 20B: 63-35 Trump (’20), 55-42 Johnson, 60-31 Trump (’16)
District 21 The southwest corner of the state, a physically larger version of the old SD-22 due to massive population loss in this corner of the state. Senator Bill Weber didn’t even draw a Dem challenger, and only has a primary challenger from his right against local preacher Brad Hutchinson, but Hutchinson is not seen as a serious threat to Weber in August. Joe Schomacker, the current 22A incumbent is going to win another term against Dem Pat Baustian in the new 21A. In 21B, political outsider Marj Fogelman won the endorsement, but faces a contested primary against local pastor Jayeson Sherman. No idea how this primary turns out, as the endorsed Fogelman doesn’t even have a website. Either one of them will win in November against Dem Michael Heidelberger though
House 21A: 71-28 Trump (’20), 60-37 Johnson, 67-26 Trump (’16)
House 21B: 63-35 Trump (’20), 52-45 Johnson, 60-33 Trump (’16),
District 22: This is a skinny district that runs Northeast-Southwest just missing Mankato on its west and takes in a bunch of territory that used to be in the old SD-20 and SD-23. Senator Julie Rosen retired after this map basically destroyed her old seat and double bunked her with Rich Draheim. Draheim thus has a completely cleared field, lacking both a primary and general election opponent. Old 20A Representative Brian Pfarr is safe for reelection against Dem Marisa Ulmen in the new HD-22A. Old 23A Representative Brian Pfaar is safe for reelection to the new HD-22B against Dem Marcia Stapleton.
House 22A: 65-33 Trump (’20), 55-42 Johnson, 63-29 Trump (’16)
House 22B: 64-34 Trump (’20), 54-32 Johnson, 62-30 Trump (’16)
District 23: Southern Minnesota, made up of Albert Lea (23A) and Austin (23B), which stands as the successor district to the old SD27. And I’m sure you’ve figured out the pattern here: 3 Republican incumbents, all running for reelection. Senator Gene Dornin along with Representatives Peggy Bennet and Patricia Mueller are all running for reelection. While Dornink’s and Bennett’s races against token Dems Brandon Lawhead, and Mary Hinnenkamp respective are going to be uneventful, Mueller’s race is going to be interesting as popular 5-term Austin mayor Tom Stiehm is an A+ level recruit for the blue team, and this race is going to be tight in this Trump/Walz district.
House 23A: 60-37 Trump (’20), 50-46 Johnson, 63-29 Trump (’16)
House 23B: 52-46 Trump (’20), 53-43 Walz, 58-34 Trump (’16)
District 24: This is a reconfigured version of the old SD-26, and takes in southern Rochester, but instead of taking in southern Olmsted County as the old district did, the new district takes in rural turf well to the west of Rochester in the adjacent county. The cartographers making this choice likely salvaged one of the two Republican-held Rochester Senate seats for the Red Team, at least for the early part of the decade. Rochester is growing at an alarming clip due to the Mayo Clinic becoming more and more powerful and drawing in major numbers of highly educated medical professionals, getting bluer and bigger every year. Trump won this seat by 11 in 2016, but only 2 in 2020, and those trends show no signs of slowing let alone reversing. Still, Senator Carla Nelson (R) breathed a major sigh of relief when she saw the maps, and should be favored against her 2020 opponent Aleta Borrud (Nelson won 51-49) under the old lines, which admittedly were more friendly to Borrud than the new ones. Republican Representative from the old 25A Duane Quam, a notoriously lazy campaigner was the other Republican beneficiary in this map, and he now sits in a bright red district and faces only token DFL opposition in Keith McLain. On the flip side, the Rochester-based half of the seat that makes up 24B is home to long-time DFL Representative Tina Liebling, who sits in a comfy position in her bright blue district and will handily defeat Republican challenger Katrina Pulham.
House 24A: 59-38 Trump (’20), 54-43 Johnson, 58-32 Trump (’16)
House 24B: 57-41 Biden, 55-42 Walz, 47-43 Clinton
Districts 25 Northern Rochester, and a reconfiguration of the old SD-25, but shrunk way down into being almost entirely within Rochester proper now due to explosive growth. With the sedding of the few Republicans that remained in the old SD-25, Senator David Senjem (R)opted to run for Olmsted County Commissioner instead of facing sure defeat, and old HD-25A Rep Nel Pierson (R) opted to run in the MN-1 special election, and when he lost that he opted to retire instead of lose. With Senjem’s retirement, Old 25B incumbent Liz Bolden (D) is running for his seat and will win, in spite of the fact Republicans are propping up one of the pothead parties’ candidate here hoping to squeeze in former Rochester City Commissioner (an appointed position) Ken Navitsky (R); it won’t be nearly enough in this Biden+21 seat. With Pierson being scared out of running again, and Duane Quam being drawn into 24A, that leaves 2020 Dem nominee Kim Hicks (against Quam) a clear path to the House in November as she is a prohibitive favorite against Republican realtor Wendy Phillips. With Representative Bolden soon to be Senator Bolden, she leaves behind her old seat for fellow DFLer and businessman Andy Smith, who will easily defeat his token GOP opponent John Robinson.
House 25A: 57-41 Biden, 55-42 Walz, 47-43 Clinton
House 25B: 62-35 Biden, 62-34 Walz, 53-36 Clinton
Districts 26 SE Corner of the state. This is the home of Senate Majority Leader Jeremy Miller. Miller of course is propping up a pothead party candidate, as this seat is just on the cusp of being competitive if the stars if the starts align, but Miller really doesn’t need it as he has always been a major overperformer as he has a golden last name in Winona politics. Miller will defeat Dem Daniel Wilson with or without Legal Marijuana Now Party candidate Eric Leitzen. If there is one constant in Minnesota politics it’s that southeastern Minnesota’s 2 House seats will be won by Dem Gene Pelowski and GOPer Greg Davids, with them entering office in 1987 and 1991 respectively. They each have an opponent in Stephen Doerr (R) and Laura Thorson (R) respectively. So Davids is clear in November after his primary, and Pelowski has a GE opponent but should win yet again.
House 26A: 52-46 Biden, 57-39 Walz, 46-44 Clinton
House 26B: 59-39 Trump (’20), 49-48 Johnson, 56-36 Trump (’16)
Districts 27 (~Old 26A, 26B): We now officially enter the metro on the northwest corner. The old metro seats started at 29, and the new ones start at 27, so in effect 2 full Senate seats moved from outstate to the metro due to population shifts in the last census. This seat is in the northwest exurbs, and doesn’t really have a fully defined successor district, as it takes in portions of a bunch of other old seats, but it closest to 30A and 31A with bits of 15B smashed together. Senators Andrew Mathews and Mary Kiffmeyer were double bunked here. Kiffmeyer immediately announced her retirement in spite of representing FAR more of the new seat than Mathews, and having more seniority than her colleague. Mathews is going to be reelected against Dem Emy Minzel. 15B State Shane Mekeland (R) will win against Dem Ronald Theissen. Republican House Leader from the old 31A Kurt Daudt is running for reelection in this seat and will easily be reelected against his primary challenger Rachel Davis and his general election challenger Brad Brown.
House 27A: 68-29 Trump (’20), 63-33 Johnson, 67-25 Trump (’16)
House 25B: 71-27 Trump (’20), 64-32 Johnson, 69-23 Trump (’16)
District 28 Isanti (A) and Chisago (B) Counties on the northern edge of the Twin Cities metro, nearly identical to the old SD-32. Much like its rural conservative brethren, this exurban conservative seat has 3 incumbent Republicans for 3 seats: Mark Koran (28), Brian Johnson (28A) and Ann Neu Brindley (28B) will defeat their token DFL opponents: Victoria Bird, Erik Johnson, and Katie Malchow respectively, with 28B a rematch of the 2020 election where Bridley defeated Malchow 62-38.
House 28A: 67-31 Trump (’20), 59-36 Johnson, 64-28 Trump (’16)
House 28B: 62-35 Trump (’20), 56-40 Johnson, 60-32 Trump (’16)
District 29 The lion’s share of solidly Republican Wright County in the western exurbs, basically all of Wright County that isn’t part of the St. Michael-Albertville school district, with the lines largely unchanged from the old version of SD-29. Senator Bruce Anderson, and 29A Representative Joe McDonald have token DFL opponents in Chris Brazelton and Sherri Leyda, but 28B incumbent Marion O’Niell is unopposed and is assured of her 6th term of office come election day.
House 29A: 65-32 Trump (’20), 60-36 Johnson, 62-28 Trump (’16)
House 29B: 62-35 Trump (’20), 56-39 Johnson, 61-31 Trump (’16)
District 30 This seat takes in the edges of Wright, Eherburne and Anoka Counties, skirting the edge of Hennepin County, but not crossing Hennepin County (aside from the tiny split town of Hanover), with the lack of Hennepin County being key here. Current 30B Representative Eric Lucero had been a resident of Dayton Minnesota, in the northwest corner of Hennepin County, he had to move to St. Michael in order to run for Senate. This will be a little more comfortable for him, as northwest Hennepin County is very quickly starting to vote like the rest of Hennepin County, and Lucero is a hard-edge kind of guy and he’ll be a LOT more comfortable in this 61% Trump seat, than in Dayton’s 56% Biden SD-34. Lucero only has token Dem opposition in DFLer Diane Nguyen. In the St. Michael-Albertville based 30A, there will be a new State Rep here in the form of Albertville City Councilman Walter Hudson, who is better known for his previous brief stint on local AM talk radio as this seat is red enough that he shouldn’t have to worry much about his election against Democrat Sonja Buckmeier. In the Sherburne (and a little Anoka) County based 30B, incumbent Paul Novotny (R) will have little difficulty beating his 2020 opponent Chad Hobot a second time, after winning 66-34 last round.
House 30A: 61-36 Trump (’20), 60-37 Johnson, 62-29 Trump (’16)
House 30B: 62-35 Trump (’20), 59-37 Johnson, 62-30 Trump (’16)
District 31 This seat is still based in northern Anoka County, but it is so far shifted inwards that it should functionally be considered a “new” seat, especially the 31A half. Senator Michelle Benson represents the old SD-31, but her house was put just across the border in the new SD-32, and she did not enter either race after she ended her 2022 gubernatorial campaign. With an open Senate seat, old 31A Rep Cal Bahr, perhaps the least loud of the right-wing splinter caucus members threw his hat in the ring and got the party’s endorsement. He still faces a primary from political neophyte Maribella McDermid, but he should win easily, and then easily defeat 2020 HD-35B Dem nominee Jason Ruffalo, who lost 60-40 to Rep Peggy Scott that year. In 31A, which now is nearly coterminous with the suburbs of Ramsey and Andover Republicans have tapped local attorney Harry Niska who should have little difficulty defeating his Dem challenger Betsy O’Berry. In 31B the aforementioned Peggy Scott is running for another term in a vastly different looking district that includes very little of her old seat, but is still safely Republican for her against DFLer Bill Fisher in her newly-drawn Ham Lake and East Bethel based seat.
House 31A: 57-40 Trump (’20), 55-41 Johnson, 58-34 Trump (’16)
House 31B: 65-33 Trump (’20), 61-35 Johnson, 63-20 Trump (’16)
District 32: (~Old 39A, 39B): This is mostly Blaine in central Anoka County, with a highly-suspiciously drawn tendril into Columbus township that really can’t be explained by anything other than intentionally trying to make it more Republican. Even with the odd tendril, this is clearly the successor seat to SD-37. Due to a very odd move by Jerry Newton (more on him in the SD-35 section), the senate seat is open and will be immensely completive in this suburban Trump/Walz seat won by less than 1% by each of them. Both parties are pulling out all the stops here with the DFL tapping Forest Lake School Board member Kate Luthner, and the GOP going with Spring Lake Part School Board member Michael Kreum, expect this one to be close, and expensive. Nolan West, a punk kid who got fired as a GOP staffer after, among other things, tweeting “It’s lynching time!” after Obama won reelection a decade ago, has somehow managed to get elected twice by the skin of his teeth without any friends in capital hill of either party. He got a gift in adding Columbus Township to the northern fringe of his seat, and he should win more comfortably this time around against Dem college student Ashton Ramsammy.in 32B, we have an incumbent in real danger following redistricting. Old 38-A Republican Donald Raleigh (R) is running. I’ve seen no notice of his moving, but his Circle Pines residence is clearly in HD-36A, but he is legally required to have established a residence within 32B by primary day; happy house hunting Donald. It may well all be for naught, however, as in this is a 5-point Biden / 6-point Walz seat Dems have gone with local attorney Matt Norris, and are fully backing his campaign; Raleigh is in trouble.
House 32A: 52-45 Trump (’20), 51-45 Johnson, 53-39 Trump (’16)
House 32B: 51-46 Biden, 51-45 Walz, 47-44 Trump (’16)
District 33 Northern Washington County which is Forest Lake (33A) and Stillwater (33B) and a few sporadic cities in towns in there for population. This is quite similar to Karin Housley’s old SD-39, with some of the further out townships shed due to being overpopulated at the time of the census. Housley is best known nationally as being the losing GOP candidate against US Senator Tina Smith in 2018, and she is running for reelection again this November. Dems are challenging her with local psychologist Nancy McLean. Housley is a strong incumbent, and Dems have challenged her before, but she has held on before as well. In the more Republican Forest Lake half, 16-year incumbent Bob Dettmer (R) is retiring. Running to succeed him is Patti Anderson. Patti Anderson, formerly known politically as Pat Anderson, and before that known as Pat Awada is an interesting candidate. Patti Anderson, then using her then-husband’s name of Awada served as mayor of Eagan Minnesota (which clear is on the other side of town from here in Dakota County), and actually won statewide election via plurality in Minnesota 20 years ago serving 1 term as Minnesota State Auditor, way back when Republicans were capable of such feats. This is Anderson’s 4(???)th attempt at a political comeback in the 2 decades since, losing the State Auditor’s election in 2006, the GOP primary for Governor in 2010, and then in 2018 lost the 38B (based in White Bear Lake, in Ramsey County). None of the old HD-38B is in the new 33A except the tiny hamlet of Delwood, which is where Anderson now lives. This might be a case of “4th time’s the charm” for her comeback bid, as this seat is still Republican enough that she is a clear favorite against Forest Lake City Councilwoman Hanna Valento, though Valento is seen as a rising star in her own right, so the margins here are important for the political future of both Anderson and Valento. In the more Democratic Stillwater-based HD-33B, incumbent DFLer Shelly Christensen retired after 2 terms, so Dems are running Josiah Hill, who was the losing nominee against Housley in 2020 after putting up a respectable 53-47 loss to the incumbent. Hill would be a decisive favorite against anti-vaxx activist Mark Bishofsky, provided Bishofsky is able to parlay his GOP endorsement in the primary against more mainstream Republican Stillwater School Board member Tina Riehle. Riehl vs Hill would have significantly higher potential to be competitive.
House 33A: 52-45 Trump (’20), 51-45 Johnson, 52-39 Trump (’16)
House 33B: 53-45 Biden, 52-44 Walz, 47-44 Clinton
District 34 Northern edge of Hennepin County, with 34A being Champlain/Dayton/Rogers and 34B being Brooklyn Park and a precinct across the river in Coon Rapids. The senate seat is a shrunk down successor of the old SD-36, shedding the vast majority of it’s Anoka County portion due to population growth in this ring of Hennepin County suburbia. Senator John Hoffman has represented this area for a decade, and will extend that another 4 years after he defeats Republican nurse Karen Attia in November. 34A is moving left at a rapid clip, going from Johnson +18 in 2014, Trump+13 in 2016, Johnson+7 in 2018, and Trump+3 in 2020, and that trend shows no signs of slowing and the inflection point of being D-leaning will be sometime in the first half of the 2020s. Dems are going with 2020 34A nominee Brian Raines, which is largely seen as a recruiting miss, as Raines did not do very well last cycle, relatively speaking. Republicans are tapping former Jeff Johnson staffer Danny Nadeau, who’s only electoral experience is losing the Hennepin County Commission seat formerly held by Johnson when Johnson stepped aside instead of lose due to the political shifts in the region. Still, HD-34A is redder than Hennepin County Commission District 7, and Nadeau should get his first electoral victory this fall, but his seat will be tough to hold for the GOP in short order as the political shifts continue as they have for the last decade. 34B is safely Democratic, and is represented by Speaker Melissa Hortman, who is seeking another term, and she will get it against her 2020 opponent Scott Simmons, likely matching her 61-39 victory that year.
House 34A: 50-47 Trump (’20), 52-45 Johnson, 52-39 Trump (’16)
House 34B: 62-35 Biden, 60-36 Walz, 55-37 Clinton
District 35 This seat got a major makeover with it moving towards Minneapolis, shedding darkred Ramsey and solid red Andover in favor of light blue Coon Rapids; the only thing that’s the same is purple Anoka, the biggest city in the district and home of Senator Jim Abeler (R). This moves Abeler into the less comfortable position of being in a Biden+4 seat instead of a Trump+10 seat. It’s hard to see Abeler lose, but his seat really got nerfed, and he may be in for the first serious reelection effort of his career. The reconfiguration of the seat gives us a rare member-on-member general election as John Heinrich (old 35A) and Zach Stephenson (old 36A), both sophomores are pitted against one another. This is going to be a highly contested race. Meanwhile in 35B, we have a unique situation as SENATOR Jerry Newton is running for a demotion, after announcing his retirement initially, he is opting to run in the open HD-35B at age 85. Newton is a favorite against Republican newcomer Polly Matteson, but given his age nothing is a given.
House 35A: 51-47 Biden, 50-45 Walz, 48-43 Trump (’16)
House 35B: 51-46 Biden, 50-45 Walz, 48-42 Trump (’16)
District 36. This is Southeastern Anoka County and northeastern Ramsey County. Roger Chamberlain has represented the predecessor seat here, the old SD38 since 2010. Chamberlain was a major target for Dems given the leftward political shift in this well-to-do suburban area, and redistricting certainly did not do him any favors as his old seat went to Biden by 1, while he won reelection by 4. This new seat went to Biden by 10, and the leftward suburban lurch continues under his feet: Chamberlain now finds himself as a major political underdog against teacher Heather Gustafson (D). On the House side, old 38A incumbent Donald Raleigh lives here, but is running next door in the Blaine based seat, leaving the Lino Lakes based seat vacant. The race for 36A kind of ended up being a recruiting dud for both parties given how marginal the seat is. GOP and DFL are running political neophytes with no real experience, but either Elliott Engen (R) or Susie Strom (D) will be sworn in come January. In the far bluer White Bear Lake half, incumbent Ami Wazlawik, a sophomore best known for defeating Patti Anderson in Anderson’s 2018 comeback attempt, is retiring after just 4 years in office. For this open seat, LGBT activist Brion Curran is a first time candidate and will be a first time elected official come November after she defeats Republican businesswoman Heidi Gunderson.
House 36A: 50-48 Biden, 49-48 Johnson, 48-43 Trump (’16)
House 36B: 57-40 Biden, 56-41 Walz, 50-41 Clinton
District 37 This is Maple Gove (37A & 37B), and the few remaining farm fields in western Hennepin County (37A). Maple Gove was not-so-long-ago the center of Republicanism in the state, but the rug has been pulled out from the GOP in this once-red bastion. One man who has seen this shift first hand is 28-year incumbent Warren Limmer (R). Limmer used to coast to reelection, but that has changed rapidly, being held to a 1.5% win in 2020 after defeating the same DFL opponent 60-40 just 4 years prior. While the western edge of this district changed shape a bit, the politics and population in both the old SD-34 and the new SD-37 is dominated by one city: maple Gove, and that city is the core and 90% of the population of both iterations. Limmer is in trouble against former Minnesota NAACP President Farhio Khalif. One of the only Republicans left in Hennepin County who has a shot at victory this November is Representative Kristen Robbins, whose district includes the few remaining Republican precincts in the far western part of the county, and has not quite been fully drowned out by the Maple Grove portion of her district (though the trends to that direction is evident). Robbins draws 2020 Dem nominee for the old 33A Caitlin Cahill, who is not seen as an especially strong recruit. In 37B, which is fully contained within Maple Grove, incumbent Kristen Bahner (D) is going de win a 3rd term against USAF veteran John Bristol (R).
House 37A: 50-48 Trump (’20), 55-43 Johnson, 52-39 Trump (’16)
House 37B: 56-41 Biden, 53-44 Walz, 47-44 Clinton
District 38 Parts of Brooklyn Park and all of Brooklyn Center, in dark blue suburban turf north of Minneapolis. The senate seat is interesting, as the DFL convention did not produce an endorsement. Brooklyn Park City Councilwoman Susan Pha has the bulk of the institutional support with a resume a mile long, but she was denied the endorsement by political newcomer Huldah Hiltsey. The Hmong community bloc votes, and Pha is a strong favorite in the primary, but Hiltsley has a bit of an activist following locally. Either woman will win handily in November against pothead party candidate Mary O’Connor and retired MMA fighter Brad Kohler (R). 20-year incumbent Representative Michael Nelson (D) is unopposed in 38A, while sophomore incumbent Samantha Vang has token Republican opposition in Robert Melvin.
House 38A: 68-30 Biden, 65-30 Walz, 63-30 Clinton
House 38B: 72-26 Biden, 69-25 Walz, 66-26 Clinton
District 39 This is the tiny southern tail of Anoka County: Spring Lake Park, Fridley, Columbia Heights, St. Anthony and a tiny slice of New Brighton across the Ramsey County border for population. This seat is essentially unchanged from the old SD-41, moving only 2 precincts for population shifts. Freshman Senator Mary Kunesh (D) will win a second term against GOP opponent Pam Wolf. Erin Koegel will win a 4ther term in 39A in a very different seat than her old 37A, after her house was added to this seat in the one precinct that changed in Spring Lake Park against Republican Rob Sylvester. In 39B, there was actually a double bunking, as the line that closely divided Connie Bernardy’s house (old 41A) and Sandra Feist (old 41B) no longer runs between their houses. They live 2 blocks apart, a strong golf swing could get from one house to the other. Bernardy had previously retired then unretired before, now she is retiring again to give the freshman Feist another term in office after a formality election against GOPer Mike Sharp.
House 39A: 63-34 Biden, 62-33 Walz, 55-36 Clinton
House 39B: 71-27 Biden, 68-29 Walz, 61-29 Clinton
District 40 Northeastern Romsey County, primarily Moundsview, Shorview, Roseville and New Brighton. Jason Isaacson (D-old 42) and John Marty (D-old 66) were double bunked here. Isaacson yielded to the more tenures Marty, though this is Marty’s first time representing a primarily suburban seat, as he lives on the border of Roseville and St. Paul, and has long been drawn into a St. Paul based seat, going all the way back to the mid-80s. The House seats are less interesting, as Representatives Kelly Moller and Jamie Becker-Finn (both D) get similar seats to their old ones and will win against Republican challengers Ben Schwanke and Allen Shen respectively.
House 40A: 61-36 Biden, 58-39 Walz, 52-38 Clinton
House 40B: 67-30 Biden, 64-33 Walz, 59-31 Clinton
District 41 Southeastern Washington County along the border with Wisconsin, with crossing the Dakota County border to take in Hastings. This is kind of the random parts left over of Washington County after the cities like Maplewood Stillwater and Forest Lake are all kept whole in other seats. It’s the successor eat to the old SD-54, but with different bits included or excluded. It is quite marginal politically going for both Walz and Biden narrowly after going narrowly for Trump in 2016. Incumbent SD-54 Senator Karla Bigham was drawn out of her seat and didn’t want to move, so she is running for Washington County Commissioner instead leaving this marginal seat open. Dems are looking to local lawyer Judy Seeberger, while Republicans have a contested primary. Tony Jurgens is the incumbent State Rep for the old 54B and was seen as a marquee recruit, however he LOST the endorsement from a conservative challenger Tom Dippel. Jurgens did not take this lying down and filed for the primary anyways. Local Republicans are in the awkward position of wanting Jurgens to win, but being obligated to support Dippel officially, as Dippel would be a significantly weaker candidate in this Biden/Walz won seat. In the northern half (41A), 54A incumbent was drawn out of his seat as well, and is also running for Washington County Commission, setting up a hell of a County Commission level election with a sitting State Senator facing a sitting State Representative. Dems are running teacher Pat Driscoll while Republicans are running police officer Mark Wiens. Wiens does not appear to have a campaign website, or any campaign money, so Republicans could be punting here, but that would seem odd. Jurgens left behind his current House seat to run for Senate, so we have another open seat. Republicans have tapped conservative veteran Shane Hudella, and the DFL is going with Hastings City Councilwoman Tina Folch. Expect a lot of attention here in both the primary and general elections for all 3 of these seats are pivotal.
House 41A: 51-47 Biden, 49-48 Walz, 48-44 Trump (’16)
House 41B: 49-48 Biden, 50-45 Walz, 48-43 Trump (’16)
District 42 This is Plymouth, except for 2 precincts in the southeastern corner of the district. 42A is western Plymouth, and 42B is eastern Plymouth. Unfortunately for freshman Senator Ann Johnson-Stewart ( D old SD44), she lives in that southeastern corner part of the city and was drawn out of her seat (more on her later in SD45). For the open seat Dems are going with the woman who held long-time incumbent Warren Limmer (covered above in SD-37) to a 1.5% win in 2020. The new SD-42 is even bluer than SD-37 so she should waltz into office with little trouble after defeating local Republican businessman Paul Hillen in November. Dem Plymouth City Councilman will win the 42A House seat after it was drawn without an incumbent living there, and he will easily defeat local Republican party official Kathy Burkett. 42B has incumbent Ginny Klevorn, who will win a 4th term after she beats Jackie Schoeder, an anti-vaxxer activist who had 15 minutes of fame when she became the poster child for “horse dewormer cures covid” movement when she took the issue to court.
House 42A: 61-37 Biden, 55-43 Walz, 52-39 Clinton
House 42B: 63-35 Biden, 57-40 Walz, 54-37 Clinton
District 43 New Hope and Golden Valley, the successor district to the old SD-45. Ann Rest (D) has represented this seat in the Senate since the 2000 elections, and did not draw a Republican challenger, and will win heandily against the random pothead party challenger against her. The House seats have two unopposed Democrats: Cedrick Frazier in 43A, and Mike Freiberg in 43B. Freiberg was officially double bunked, but it didn’t matter as old 46A incumbent Ryan Winkler (D) long ago announced he was going to run for Hennepin County Attorney.
House 43A: 66-31 Biden, 63-32 Walz, 58-32 Clinton
House 43B: 73-24 Biden, 70-26 Walz, 66-26 Clinton
District 44 East central Ramsey County just north of St. Paul with a small chunk of western Washington County, namely Oakdale, added for population. This is closely related to the old SD-43, just shrink inwards towards St. Paul due to population growth. In perhaps the single biggest political downgrade move for those drawn out of their seats is Senator Chuck Wiger, who has been a State Senator since 1996 is running for Maplewood city council, as his home was drawn out of his seat. FWIW, if there was an award for gerrymandered cities in Minnesota, Maplewood is one of 3 possible candidates, the other 2 being St. Cloud, and the abomination that is the Crystal-New Hope border. Regardless, this DFL primary has turned a bit nasty. Old 53A State Rep Tou Xiong (D) won the party’s endorsement, but he has 2 challengers that vied for the nomination but were defeated, Wiger’s Chief of Staff and local school board member Nancy Livingston is the more serious of the two, with the other being attorney Leslie Lienemann. It’s hard to see Xiong losing the primary, but there’s a tiny chance Livingston’s political connections could be important, as Xiong’s political base is largely outside of the seat in neighboring SD-47. Whichever Dem wins the primary, they will be a Senator after beating Republican Paul Babin in November. The House side is much less interesting as long-term incumbent DFLers Peter Fischer (44A) and Leon Lillie (44B) will cruise to reelection against Alex Pickney and William Johnson respectively. In a rare Libertarian Party appearance, 44B has Libertarian Party member TJ Hawthorne who petitioned his way onto the ballot.
House 44A: 63-35 Biden, 62-34 Walz, 57-35 Clinton
House 44B: 58-40 Biden, 58-36 Walz, 51-40 Clinton
District 45 This is essentially the city of Minnetonka (45B) and Lake Minnetonka (45A). This district is INSANELY wealthy, and has the unique distinction of not only double bunking two sitting Senators, but also neither one of them will appear on the ballot. Dave Osmek (R) was scared into retirement after his old seat was redrawn to be unwinnable for him or any Republican, while Ann Stewart-Johnson was drawn into the corner of this seat when her old seat was reconfigured, and ran for the nomination. However State Rep Kelly Morrison, who had the territorial advantage in the district came out on top and Stewart-Johnson withdrew instead of going to a primary with Morrison. Mirrison is as good as Senator-elect at this point as she will handily defeat Republican realtor Kathleen Fowke. 45A, a full 30 points to the right of 45B is going to be an interesting race. Republicans are running former Tonka Bay City Councilman Andrew Myers. Tonka Bay is one of many micro-cities that make up the various pennisulas, bays and shore of Lake Minnetonka; Tonka Bay has a population of 1400 for context. Dems are going with local economist Lauren Breshahan, a former CBO economist. Myers should be the favorite, but it is going to be a competitive race that draws in lots of money. 45B is a lot less interesting as DFL incumbent Patty Acomb is going to flatten former Wayzata City Councilwoman Lorie Cousineau.
House 45A: 49-48 Biden, 52-45 Johnson, 49-42 Trump (’16)
House 45B: 64-34 Biden, 59-39 Walz, 56-36 Clinton
District 46 The epicenter of left-wing Hennepin County suburbia, with St. Louis Park, Hopkins and half of Edina making up the entirety of this seat. One only need look at candidate filings to see how little Republicans care about this area: 3 seats, ZERO Republicans. Senator Ron Latz and Representative Cheryl Youakim soon to be joined by current St. Louis Park City Councilman Larry Craft. Latz and Senator Melizza Lopez Franzen (D) were double bunked here, but Lopez Franzen deferred to Latz and announced her retirement shortly after the new maps were drawn.
House 46A: 76-22 Biden, 73-23 Walz, 69-22 Clinton
House 46B: 71-27 Biden, 66-31 Walz, 62-29 Clinton
District 47 This is essentially Woodbury in southwest Washington County, and is nearly identical to the old SD-53. In spite of how little this seat changed, there are no incumbents running. Senator Susan Kent (D), the ringleader of the 2020 coup against Tom Bakk announced she is retiring to return to the private sector. Representative Tou Xiong (D) got put into the neighboring district and is running for Senate there, and Octogenarian Steve Sandell (D) is retiring after his sophomore term in office. In the Senate side there is a heavy Air Force presence, as Colonel Dwight Dorau (ret.) is facing Lieutenant Colonel Nicole Mitchell (USAFR). Given the seat’s lean, Mitchell will win, but still a neat little tidbit about the candidates’ similar backgrounds. In 47A, Dems are running union official Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger while Republicans are running local businessman Bob Lawrence. Local activist Ethan Cha, a refuge from Laos is the D nominee in 47B, while Republicans got a solid recruit in former State Rep Kelly Fenton who was swept in on the 2014 red wave, and swept out in the 2018 blue wave. This area is too blue for anything other than a Dem win how, but there’s a tiny sliver of hope for Fenton if things turn REALLY sour for Dems.
House 47A: 62-36 Biden, 59-38 Walz, 54-37 Clinton
House 47B: 58-40 Biden, 54-44 Walz, 50-42 Clinton
District 48 This district takes up the lion’s share of Carver County. Due to rapid growth in Carver County over the last decade, the old SD-47 had to shrink massively, and it did so by shedding chunks of the rural portions of the district, moving it WELL to the left of its old configuration, and as the area has grown, it’s also been bluing; Dems seem this as fertile ground in 2022 and beyond after having punted on everything involving Carver County for the last century or so. Senator Julie Coleman suddenly finds herself in a Biden won seat after having previously won a Turmp+7 seat for the first time in 2020. Coleman is the favorite here against Dem psychologist Dan Kessler, but this seat is changing, and she likely won’t ever have an easy reelection moving forward. In the far more conservative half, incumbent Jim Nash (R) is in for a comfortable reelection in 48A. In the suddenly Biden+11 48B, incumbent Greg Boe (R) is in a tough situation. Boe is going into the general election instead of turning tail and looking for the exit, but he starts off as a heavy underdog to Chanhassin City Councilwoman Lucy Rehm (D).
House 48A: 53-44 Trump (’20), 54-42 Johnson, 54-36 Trump (’16)
House 48B: 54-43 Biden, 49-48 Walz, 46-45 Clinton
District 49 This is a compact seat in southwestern Hennepin County, taking in all of Eden Prairie and southern Minnetonka. Once Republican turf and home to former Congressman Erik Paulsen, those days seem like a distant memory at this point. Like some outstate seats, this district doesn’t have much noteworthy going on with the D incumbents all running. Senator Steve Cwodzinksi and Representatives Laurie Pryor and Carlie Kotyza-Witthuhn will all easily defeat their Republican opponents Marla Helseth, Ryan Chase and Thomas Knecht.
House 49A: 64-34 Biden, 59-38 Walz, 55-36 Clinton
House 49B: 61-36 Biden, 55-42 Walz, 52-39 Clinton
District 50 This is western Bloomington (50B) and the half of Edina not in SD46 (50A). While very similar to the old SD-49, it does not include Melissa Lopez Franzen (D)’s house, so she is retiring instead of moving or primarying a fellow Dem. Someone who IS carpetbagging in is former State Rep Alice Mann, who represented a Burnsville based House seat for 1 term from 2018-2020. Mann, a medical doctor, has moved to Edina and is running for this Senate seat, and she is going to win it against token GOP candidate Doug Fulton. Similarly Representative Heather Edelson is going to defeat her GOP opponent Sami Cisman. 50B is another matter entirely. It’s safely Dem, but there are two incumbent Dem Reps here, and no endorsement was given, so it’s an incumbent-incumbent primary. Andrew Carlson (Old 50B) and Steve Elkins (Old 49B) are in their 3rd and 2nd terms respectively, and either man will handily defeat Republican Beth Beebe in November, but they have to get by each other in August first. Elkins probably has the advantage, as he currently represents a large portion of the new district.
House 50A: 69-30 Biden, 63-35 Walz, 61-31 Clinton
House 50B: 64-34 Biden, 59-38 Walz, 55-36 Clinton
District 51 Richfield (51A) and eastern Bloomington (51B). This district is similar to the current SD-50, but shrunk in towards Minneapolis due to population growth both here and in Minneapolis. Politically this is slightly less affluent version of SD-50 next door. Senator Melissa Halvorson Wiklund (D) will extend her 10-year tenure by defeated Republican opponent Frank Pafko. Representative Mike Howard (D) will get a 3rd term after he defeats Ryan Wiskerchen (R). 51B is currently vacant, as Andrew Carlson’s home was drawn in the neighboring district. Bloomington City Councilman Nathan Coulter will cruise into St. Paul after he defeats former State Rep Chad Anderson (R) , who won a flukey special election 52-48 in December 2015 before being beaten in a rematch in November 2016. He also was the nominee against Carlson in 2018, losing 61-39, as Bloomington shifter further and further left.
House 51A: 73-24 Biden, 71-24 Walz, 66-25 Clinton
House 51B: 64-34 Biden, 62-34 Walz, 56-35 Clinton
District 52 This is essentially Eagan and the smaller Mendota Heightsin northern Dakota County, roughly analogous to the old SD51. Senator Jim Carlson (D) is safe for reelection against Republican Stephen Lowell. On the House side, both Sandra Masin (D-old 51A) Liz Reyer (D-old 51B) were double bunked. No endorsement was given and they go to a primary in 52A, which is quite similar to Masin’s old seat. Either woman will defeat Republican Fern Smith. In a district that’s largely new to the person running here, incumbent State Rep Ruth Richardson (D-old 52B) was drawn into the Eagan-centric seat, but she is safe for reelection against Cynthia Lonnquist (R)
House 52A: 62-35 Biden, 59-37 Walz, 53-37 Clinton
House 52B: 63-34 Biden, 59-38 Walz, 54-36 Clinton
District 53 Directly to the east of 52 lies 53, which contains the most of the rest of northern Dakota County including Inver Grove Heights and South St. Paul (a suburb, not a neighborhood of St. Paul). This is the successor district to the old SD52. Senator Matt Klein (D) is safe for reelection against Republican Chris Rausch, as is Representative Rick Hansen (D) in 53B, though the MNGOP is propping up a random pothead party campaign in hopes they can snipe Hansen, which they’ve tried several times before in redder versions of this district over the 18 years he’s been in office. Republican Steven Swoboda is not going to defeat Hansen regardless. In 53A, with Richardson being drawn into a neighboring district, there will be a new Dem elected to the House from northern Dakota County, and that Dem is Mary Frances Clardy, a local teacher. Republicans are also propping up a pothead party candidate here, but much like in 53B, it's meaningless and Republican Todd Kruse is DOA against Clardy.
House 53A: 59-39 Biden, 56-40 Walz, 52-40 Clinton
House 53B: 56-41 Biden, 57-37 Walz, 49-41 Clinton
District 54 The majority of Scott County, anchored by Shakopee (54A) and Prior Lake (54B), the successor district to SD55, just grealy shrunk in size due to explosive growth. In the Senate seat, incumbent Senator Eric Pratt (R) lost out on the endorsement, but is moving forward with a primary against nurse Natalie Barnes, who challenged Pratt from the right. Democrats chose a relatively unknwon Alicia Donahue, who was an also-ran in the 2018 MN-3 primary that was won by now-Congressman Dean Phillips. Donahue is not seen as an especially strong candidate, so she may not be well positioned to capitalize on a potentially weak GOP candidate Barnes, should she prevail in the primary. 54A is where all the money is watching though. Shakopee has exploded in growth the last decade, moving left in the process, and with the explosion in growth, has shed basically all of the red non-Shakopee territory it used to have, moving 2 points to the left in the process. The election here could have its own diary, but 2 former state reps are challenging the incumbent state rep. Current Rep Erik Mortensen was first drummed out of the main House GOP caucus for being an absolute schmuck, and then drummed out of the splinter right-wing caucus for being a schmuck and too right-wing for them. Mortensen has no friends and has basically declared war on the entire Republican Party. He is facing a primary from the left from former State Rep Bob Loonan, a conservative in his own right, and those two men absolutely HATE eachother. Former Rep Brad Tabke is waiting for the winner in November. The GOP is propping up a pothead party candidate to try and salvage this seat, but it likely isn’t enough as Mortensen has already told his supporters to under no circumstance to vote for Loonan, and Loonan has hinted at endorsing Tabke outright if he loses the primary. That’s likely too much in a Biden+8 left-trending seat, even in 2022. 54B is far more boring as local high school principal Ben Bakeberg is going to be the next Republican House member after he defeats Dem Some Dude Brendan Van Alstyne.
House 54A: 53-45 Biden, 50-45 Walz, 47-44 Trump (’16)
House 54B: 55-43 Trump (’20), 55-42 Johnson, 56-35 Trump (’16)
District 55 Next door in Savage (55A) and Burnsville (55B), along the western edge of Dakota County, we have a far more boring set of elections in the successor district to the old SD56. Dem Senator Lindsey Port is running against and will defeat Republican Pam Myhra. Myhra has been a victim of changing tides in the South metro, and finds herself a candidate who can’t find an office she can win, but not for lack of trying. After her last reelection effort in 2012, she ran as Marty Seifert’s LG nominee finishing 3rd in the GOP primary in 2014, She ran for MN-2 in the GOP primary to replace John Kline but withdrew before the primary was won by Jason Lewis, she then was the losing Republican nominee against Julie Blaha in the State Auditor election in 2018, and in 2020 she lost the election to reclaim her old State House seat as the politics of the area shifted under her feet. Now she is trying to defeat Senator Port in a newly drawn Biden+17 seat, so one has to wonder if she finally hangs it up this time which will be her 5th loss in a row. Freshman DFL State Rep is a strong favorite against Slovakian immigrant Gabriela Kroetch (R), and fellow freshman DFLer Kaela Berg will get a sophomore term against former St. Paul staffer / attorney Van Holston (R).
House 55A: 55-43 Biden, 52-45 Walz, 47-44 Clinton
House 55B: 60-38 Biden, 57-39 Walz, 51-40 Clinton
District 56 Apple Valley (56A and 56B) and Rosemount (56B) in central Dakota County. This is a more compact version of the old SD57 that shrunk in size due to population growth. Like much of Dakota County, this used to be Republican territory, but that has shifted significantly over the last decade. The Senate seat is open due to the retirement of Greg Clausen (D) last December. Republicans have a settled on pastor Jim Bean, while Dems have a bit of a clusterf**k of a primary. The party endorsed State Senate staffer Justin Emmerich, but former State Representative Erin Maye Quade, who lost the nomination to Emmerich is running in the primary. Quade left a bad taste in the mouth of a lot of party insiders due to her role in the near collapse of the caucus-convention system in 2018 as she jumped ship from her House seat for a failed suicide LG run as Erin Murphy’s 2nd that nearly led Dems to not have a nominee in what should have been a safely Dem seat. The primary electorate may or may not care as much about it though, so Quade is a serious contender against Emmerich. Either one will defeat Bean in November, as Dakota County has just moved too far to the left for him to win. Dems have incumbents in both house seats, and Robert Bierman and John Huot have clear paths to reelection against Republicans Joe Landru and Joe Canlon respective.
House 56A: 60-37 Biden, 57-39 Walz, 51-40 Clinton
House 56B: 56-42 Biden, 54-43 Walz, 48-43 Clinton
District 57 This is Lakeville (57A, 57B) and rural eastern Scott County (57A). Freshman Senator Zach Duckworth got a boost in redistricting with the addition of the rurals to his seat, and he is secure for reelection, even as the populated Lakeville portion of the seat lurches leftwards. Representative Jon Koznick is also pleased with his 57% Trump seat and is comfortable for a blowout reelection against Dem Greg Henningsen. HD57B is entirely within the city of Lakeville, quite marginal and moving leftwards, and most importantly: open. Republicans got retired police office Jeffe Witte as a nominee, but Witte doesn’t have a website and doesn’t appear to be actively campaigning. Dems have tapped local teacher Erin Preese. Preese seems like a B-list candidate, but at least has a functional campaign presence. This one has the potential to go either way depending on the leanings of the year and trends in the sest.
House 57A: 57-41 Trump (’20), 56-41 Johnson, 58-35 Trump (’16)
House 57B: 50-48 Biden, 50-46 Johnson, 51-40 Trump (’16)
District 58 This is an super awkward “new” district, including uber-liberal Northfield and the rest of northern Rice County (58A) and Farmington plus the rest of rural southern Dakota County. Due the eastern half of this seat being so incredibly Republican, the Senate seat is going to go the Republicans. Chiropractor Bill Lieske more of the right-wing populist type won the endorsement over Farmington School Board member Jake Cordes, but Cordes is moving forward to the primary. Either may will defeat Clarice Grabau (D), a local teacher. 58 is immovable in its politics due to the vast polarization with Northfield voting as a bloc for Dems, and that being enough to overcome the rest of the district, but that means the margin never moves from a single-digit Dem win. Dems are going with Northfield-based non-profit exectutive Kristi Pursell, and she is strongly favored to win against accountant Gary Bruggenthies (R) in November. In 58B, incumbent Pat Garafalo is the last man standing from the 2013 group of Republicans who voted for marriage equality, with most of them defeated by homophobes in primaries immediately thereafter and one other losing a general election a cycle later. Garafalo still remains standing, and will win a 10th term against Dem Some Dude Steve Dungy.
House 58A: 52-46 Biden, 55-42 Walz, 48-44 Clinton
House 58B:57-41 Trump (’20), 53-43 Johnson, 57-34 Trump (’16)
Districts 59-63. These seats are all Minneapolis, and all are going to go 75-25 DFL+.
District 59 North Minneapolis. Senator Bobby Joe Champion and Representatives Fue Lee and Esther Agbaje are all unopposed
District 60 Northeast and Southeast Minneapolis, essentially all of Minneapolis that is east of the Mississippi River. Senator Kari Dziedic and Representative Mohamud Noor are both unopposed, while Representative Sydney Jordan has token GOP opposition in Diana Halsey
District 61 This is southwest Minneapolis, including the chain of lakes, by far the richest part of Minneapolis. Senator Scott Dibble and Reps Frank Hornstein and Jamie Long are all unopposed.
District 62 Southern downtown, and all of uptown Minneapolis: Hipster central. Senator Omar Fateh has a token primary against DFLer Shaun Laden and a token GOP opponent Andrew Schmitz. Rep Aisha Gomez has a DFL primary against Osman Ahmed. Representative Hodan Hassan has token Republican opponent Taylor Hammond.
District 63 South Minneapolis. Senator Patricia Torres Ray is retiring. The winner of the DFL primary, either Zaynam Mohamed or Todd Scott will win the seat against GOPer Shawn Holster; Mohamed has the endorsement. 63A Representative Jim Davnie is retiring, leaving the seat for Samantha Sencer-Mura after she defeats Republican Kyle Bragg.63A incumbent Emma Greenman is unopposed
Districts 64-67: These seats are all St. Paul, and all are going to go 75-25 DFL+.
District 64 Highland Park and Snelling Hamline in southern St. Paul. Senator Erin Murphy and Representatives Kaohly Vang Her and Dave Pinto are all running against Republican Challengers, Robert Bushard, Dan Walsh and Lorraine Englund respectively
District 65 Downtown and the small portion of St. Paul south of the Mississippi River. Senator Sandy Pappas has been in the senate for 32 years. If she wins her tri-lateral primary against Sheigh Freeberg and Zuki Elli she’ll make it 36, as any of the 3 will defet Republican Paul Holmgren. Both 65A and 65B are open as incumbents Rena Moran is running for Ramsey County Commissioner and Carlos Molinari is retiring. They will be replaced by Samakab Hussein and the winner of a primary between Maria Isa Perez-Hedges and Anna Botz. Both have general election opponents named John Schonebaum and Kevin Fjensted.
District 66 Northern St. Paul. With John Marty being drawn into a suburban-only seat, this is open, and DFLer Clare Oumou Verbeten will take office after she defeats Republican Mikki Murray and Libertarian Jeremy Peichel. 66A is also open with the retirement of Alice Hausman who has been in office since 1989. There is a primary to replace her, with neither candidate carrying the DFL endorsement. The winner of Dave Thomas and Leigh Finke will go on to win against Republican Trace Johnson. 66B incumbent Athena Hollins has Republican opponent Jay Hill.
District 67 Eastern St. Paul. Senator Foung Hawj is unopposed. If Erik Mortensen is the most problematic Republican in office, 67A incumbent John Thompson is the most problematic Democrat in office. He has been drummed out the party due to his personal and criminal problems in his 2 short years in office. Local DFLers have backed Liz Lee, and Lee is going to defeat Thompson in the August primary and then take office after she beats Republican Beverly Peterson in November. 67B incumbent Jay Xiong has opponent Fred Turk.
Hope this was informative. I’ll be doing a ratings diary in the next iteration after the primaries.
