Incredibly popular 3-term mayor R.T. Rybak (DFL) is opting not to seek a certain 4th term as mayor of Minneapolis. This has opened the flood gates to a plethora of contenders for this seat. A lot of people, me included, have not been able to easily make heads or tails of this race. It is a complex mess of 35 candidates, and a top-3 ranked-choice voting system (Formerly referred to as Instant Runoff Voting). Let’s sift through the unimportant fluff first, then get to the actually important candidates, and see how they stack up against one another.
Unimportant people running for mayor, in alphabetical order:
Mark Anderson – Simplify Government
Merrill Anderson – Jobs and Justice
Neal Baxter – Independent
Troy Benjegerdes – Local Energy/Food
Alicia Bennett – DFL
Edmund Bryere – Legacy Next Generation
Again Carney Jr. (Really, his name will be listed as “Again” on the ballot) – Demand Transit Revolution
Chris Clark – Libertarian (He is endorsed by the LPM, however, he isn’t a serious candidate)
James Everett – Green
Bob Fine – DFL
Cyd Gorman – Police Reform
Michael Gould – DFL
Kurtis Hanna – Pirate Party
John Hartwig – Independent
Gregg Iverson – DFL
Bill Kahn – Last Minneapolis Mayor
Jaymie Kelly – Stop Foreclosures Now
Tony Lane – Socialist Workers Party (Endorsed)
Doug Mann – Libertarian (He is endorsed as the #2 choice by the LPM)
Abdul Rahaman – We The People…
Josh Rea – End Homelessness Now
Ole Savior – GOP (He is a well known perennial candidate. But he is well known as a perennial candidate
Captain Jack Sparrow – Count All Rankings (The dude seriously changed his name to do this)
Jimmy Stroud – The People’s Choice
Jeff Wagner – DFL (The guy from “The Video”)
John Wilson – Lauraist Communist (From what I can tell, this guy is so off of his rocker that he is a harm to society)
Stephanie Woodruff – DFL (She is actually endorsed by the Independence Party of Minnesota, and will draw more votes than anyone else on this part of the list)
Rahn Workcuff – Independence Party of Minnesota
Christopher Robin Zimmerman – Libertarian
Okay, now on to the candidates have a greater than 0.0% chance of winning, in ascending order of likelihood of victory:
Cam Winton – Independent Responsible Inclusive (But really a Republican)
Cam Winton is a Minneapolis attorney that finds himself endorsed by the Minneapolis branch of the Republicans (Insert requisite “Both of them” joke here). He also finds himself as the official #3 pick of both the Libertarian Party, and Independence Party. For being a political neophyte, he is seen as a “serious” candidate. Winton’s chances went from terrible to nearly nonexistent when Dan Cohen entered the race after the DFL chose not to endorse a candidate at the convention. All of Winton’s would-be support is now going to Cohen.
Don Samuels – DFL
Don Samuels is a DFL city councilman from the North Side of Minneapolis, and represents a heavily minority district. He is notable as he is the only serious candidate that is pro-stadium, Outgoing DFL mayor R.T. Rybak was the major driving force behind getting the new Twins stadium, Gopher stadium, and now the Vikings stadium. Samuels was an ally with the current mayor on these issues. Samuels’ main problem is he is from a downtrodden area of the city, and the rest of the city may have reservations about voting from a candidate from the less affluent North Side.
Dan Cohen – Jobs Downtown Casino (but a former Republican city council president from the 60s)
Dan Cohen’s emergence from the political grave was very surprising to me. But he vowed to enter if the DFL did not endorse, and they didn’t. Cohen has a long history in the city, serving on the planning commission a number of times, being a former city council president, and was most recently seen losing the 1969 race for this very position. Cohen is running an unabashedly populist campaign. He would not be recognized as a Republican in today’s day and age, but he is decidedly to the right of the very leftist field here. But I have yet to hear an ad on the radio that wasn’t Cohen’s, so it is no surprise to me that he has been polling first choice voters pretty well. In fact, I would be surprised if he is not in 1st place after the first round of ballots, pre-trimming. But that will likely be his ceiling.
Betsy Hodges – DFL
Betsy Hodges represents a pretty affluent Minneapolis district in the SW corner of the city, and is a seasoned political veteran. She snagged the endorsement of the Star Tribune, which was the de facto pseudo-endorsement of Rybak, as Rybak is a former Star Tribune guy. Rybak himself has stayed officially out of the race, plus he and Hodges haven’t always had a peachy relationship. Hodges was the co-favorite going into the convention, and Hodges delegates battled Andrew’s delegates through many ballots. But once it became clear that Andrew would eventually gain enough votes to officially lockdown the endorsement (and thus the election) Hodges told her delegates to leave the premises. Once they left, there was an absence of a quorum, and the convention disbanded without a candidate. This could be overcome, in theory, but Hodges has done nothing in the following 3 months to warrant a change in her position as the clear #2.
Mark Andrew – DFL
Mark Andrew is a former Hennepin County Commissioner, and more importantly, a former chairman of the Minnesota DFL. He, like Hodges, is from the southern edge of the city. Andrew is well-connected, and knows everyone a Minneapolis mayoral candidate / mayor needs to know. He and Rybak have an icy relationship, and it will really burn Rybak personally once Andrew takes the keys to the mayor’s office. But Andrew is at least 95% likely to emerge victorious next Friday, even though he may be in 3rd or 4th on the first ballot.
Politically, Andrew and Hodges are ideologically in-sync liberal Democrats. They both oppose the Vikings stadium, however, which will make the construction rather awkward, as it is starting next month. If I were still a Minneapolis resident, my ballot would be Samuels – Hodges – Andrew. Samuels for my personal support of the stadium, and Hodges above Andrew due to the relative closeness between her and Rybak, whom I admire a great deal.