Final predictions for the 2014 elections! 2012 results listed on each district, with final ratings listed, and previous ratings listed in parentheses. All predictions made on or after October 29th, using the final Campaign Finance Board reports.
Percentages are the odds the favored candidate will win:
Tilt D/R: 50.1%-60%
Lean D/R: 60.1-75%
Likely D/R: 75.1-99%
Safe D/R: <99%
District 1: Northwest Minnesota. This used to be a Democratic district, but has shifted right in recent cycles. In 2008 both house seats were held by the DFL and in 2010 they were won by Republicans. The senate seat has been held by Leroy Stumpf (D) since before I was born, but he may be the last Democrat to come out of here for a while, but it isn’t set in stone yet, as it has old loyalties. District 1A has sophomore incumbent Dan Fabian was first elected in 2010, and has entrenched himself already. He was not seriously challenged in 2012, and is facing the same token opponent in Bruce Patterson (DFL) again. Fabian looks a lock to return to St. Paul for another 2 years. The Roseau area is fully owned by Polaris, and is certainly the more Republican of the two House districts, with Fabian having raised quite a bit of money from the aforementioned vehicle manufacturer. Over in 1B, Deb Kiel has not given off quite as good of an impression locally as Fabian has, and 1B is a lot less Republican friendly than 1A. 1B is centered around Theif River Falls, and is essentially a wholely owned subsidiary of Arctic Cat (Yes, both major American snowmobile/fourwheeler manufacturer’s are in the same Senate district in the middle-of-nowhere-Minnesota). Keil was challenged pretty hard in her first reelection bid in 2012, but won 52-48. Her challenger for 2014 is political newcomer: agricultural businessman and Crookston Daily Times writer Eric Bergeson. Bergeson is quite familiar within DFL circles, and is a friend of long-term State Representative Bernie Lieder. Kiel started out as a clear favorite, but Bergeson has done quite well, having outraised, and by all accounts outcampaigned Kiel. His professional speaking career and ability have shown a clear distinction between him and his opponent. Given the lean/trend of the district, and the power of incumbency, I give Kiel a slight edge still, but only just.
House A
Romney (R) 54-43
Peterson (D) 67-30
Fabian (R) 60-40
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Romney (R) 52-46
Peterson (D) 69-27
Kiel (R) 52-48
Tilt R (Likely R)
District 2: District 2A is essentially the half of the Bemidji area that is in MN-7, the Red Lake Indian Reservation, and Lake of the Woods. 2A had another Republican swept into office during the 2010 wave, but he was unable to win reelection the way his western neighbors did. David Hancock had a one term hold on this Lake Of The Woods district before Roger Erickson (DFL) unseated Hancock in 2012 by a healthy 55-45 margin. This district is one that used to be solidly Democratic, but has moved the other direction, although much more slowly than 1. The aforementioned Hancock is back in 2014 for a rematch. Erickson looks to be a pretty clear favorite, with Hanock struggling to keep pace with the fundraising, even with the public matching funds, he has been unable to approach the limit, and had to loan is campaign 10,000 to keep the money game close. It is a Romney district in outstate Minnesota, and both Dayton and Franken are likely to narrowly lose the district in their reelection bids, so it can’t be taken off the table, but Erickson is the favorite. Directly to the south of 2A is the more GOP friendly 2B with Park Rapids at its core. Republican Steve Green won this redrawn seat in 2012, and after a divisive primary, running a shoestring campaign against a much more seasoned politician in the general election, former Representative Brita Sailer. Sailer opted not to seek a rematch, and that left Democrats with tailor and army veteran David Sobieski. Sobieski is not nearly of the caliber Sailer was, but his business connections, and tightknit relationship with Collin Peterson (a 2B resident himself) has seem to filled his coffers nicely, having outraised the incumbent nearly 2:1. Even with the spending advantage, this is an increasingly rough place for a Democrat to be elected. I was fairly certain that Green would cruise to reelection, but not there is a sliver of doubt about his reelection chances after he raised less than half of the voluntary spending limit.
House A
Romney (R) 50-48
Peterson (D) 67-29 (~60%)
Cravaack (R) 52-48 (~40%)
Erickson (D) 55-45
Lean D (Lean D)
House B
Romney (R) 56-42
Peterson (D) 64-32 (~60%)
Cravaack (R) 56-43 (~40%)
Green (R) 51-49
Lean R (Likely R)
District 3: Welcome to the northern side of the Iron Range and the BWCA: Home to Senate Majority Leader Tom Bakk who, along with the rest of the senate, is not up until 2016. Long-term incumbents Mary Murphy and David Dill (Both DFL) should win by their customary landslides against token opposition.
House A
Obama (D) 55-42
Nolan (D) 56-42
Dill (D) 67-33
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 60-38
Nolan (D) 60-40
Murphy (D) 65-35
Safe D (Safe D)
District 4: This is essentially Moorhead and surrounding area. This district is best known as the former home of long-time moderate Republican Morrie Lanning who retired in 2012. Given the movement in this particular part of the state, he is likely to be the last Republican representing Moorhead’s House district, which is a college town across the river from Fargo ND. DFLer Ben Lien won against Republican Travis Reimche in 2012. Up until the morning of filing closing June 3rd, it looked like Republicans would not have a candidate of any type in the seat, as it was one of the seats left uncontested on the previous Friday’s big Republican ticket announcement. No one seemed to know anything about the Republican nominee, but he has drawn quite a bit of money to his cause. But Republicans and Democrats alike concede is is unlikely to do better than a 10 point showing against Lien. Lien is young, and looks to have a long tenure ahead of him in the House. The long game here may be to try and rough up Lien, as to dissuade him from wanting to move up the ranks. Still, keeping near parody with and incumbent Democrat when your party is losing the money game 2:1, he has a nonzero chance at catching lightning in a bottle. In the more Republican (rural areas around Moorhead) 4B Paul Marquart (DFL) looks to lock in his 8th term in the House (He won by a margin of nearly 50 points in Republican wave of 2010, and by 30 in the more Republican redrawn district in 2012). Like in 4A, Republicans couldn’t find a warm body to trot out on Friday, but did manage to find a man by the name of Jared LaDuke to file on the last day. Again, the Republican candidate seems to be someone off the street that doesn’t have any name recognition or political history or connections. Marquart is a famously tireless campaigner, and is one of the most personable politicians you’ll ever meet. Marquart is at the top of the list when it comes to strongest DFLers to run to succeed Peterson when Peterson hangs it up. Expect another 30-50 point blowout for Marquart.
House A
Obama (D) 55-42
Peterson (D) 69-26
Lien (D) 55-45
Likely D (Safe D)
House B
Romney (R) 51-47
Peterson (D) 69-27
Marquart (D) 65-35
Safe D (Safe D)
District 5: The amalgam district: 5B is very much an Iron Range district, and 5A is decisively NOT. I hold this district near and dear to my heart, as I have a lot of family and friends here. This district is one of the 3 or 4 I know better than any political subdivision anywhere, and it stretches from Bemidji on the west, and Grand Rapids and western Itasca County in the east. Alright, that’s enough about me and my sentiment for this district. In the 2012 redistricting, this district had all sorts of people watching, as 6 incumbents were mashed up into the district, 3 Republicans and 3 Democrats, so the senate race, and both house races saw incumbent vs. incumbent showdowns. Democrats swept the races in the end, with ease that surprised even me. In 5A there was a Bemidji (DFL area) vs. Cass County (GOP area) between two strong Representatives: Larry Howes (R) and Persell (D). Persell ended up winning 56-44, which was an eye popping margin considering I had it as a Toss-up / tilt R race going into election night. Howes is not running a rematch, and Republicans have 32 year old upstart Phillip Nelson carrying the banner. Nelson has not raised sufficient money to even submit paperwork to the CFB, so his campaign is effectively nonexistent. It would be hard to see Persell losing to a political newcomer after easily dispatching a top notch incumbent like Howes regardless, though. This simply solidifies the fact it’ll be a bloated margin In 5B we reenter the Iron Range from the west, home of 4-term incumbent Tom Anzelc, who is running for reelection in his Grand Rapids area district, plus a portion of blood-red Cass County. Alnzelc defeated fellow incumbent, 1-term Representative Caroline McElfatrick in 2012. McElfatrick was a byproduct of the 2010 Red Wave, and was promptly voted out of office, although she kept it more respectable that I figure she would. Regardless, she is not running in a rematch against Anzelc. Representative Anzelc will instead face Justin Eichorn. It appears as though Mr. Eichorn had drawn some of the top level GOP operatives in the area, but they have all packed up shop and moved on to other races, with Eichorn’s early fundraising successes having also gone the way of the dodo, taking the district off the map for 2014
House A
Obama (D) 51-46
Peterson (D) 64-31 (~40%)
Nolan (D) 53-47 (~60%)
Persell (D) 56-44
Safe D (Likely D)
House B
Obama (D) 49-48
Nolan (D) 53-47
Anzelc (D) 53-46
Safe D (Likely D)
District 6: Heart of the Iron Range. 29-year old Carly Melin will return to St. Paul for her second full term in 6A. She also served the vast majority of her first term following the special election to replace Tony Sertich, who resigned to take over as IRRRB Chairman in Dayton’s cabinet in early 2011. Republican Roger Weber is seeking a rematch against Miss Melin, but he is unlikely to do any better than the 71-29 thumping he received in 2012. Over in 6B, Melin’s former campaign manager, and current Representative in his own right Jason Metsa is seeking his first reelection after winning his seat when Tom Rukavina retired in 2012. Metsa was another candidate that nearly had a free shot in 2014, with a last-minute Republican getting in at the filing deadline. Matt Matasich, last seen losing to Senator Dave Tomassoni in 2010 70-30 is back for a second try for office in the Lower House against the freshman Metsa. His entrance doesn’t change the calculus in this Safe D affair, however.
House A
Obama (D) 63-34
Nolan (D) 64-35
Melin (D) 71-29
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 62-36
Nolan (D) 58-42
Metsa (D) 68-32
Safe D (Safe D)
District 7: Duluth. Duluth is a mini-San Francisco on the shore of Lake Superior, as well as the hub and port of the Iron Range. In 7A, 22-year incumbent Tom Huntley is stepping aside. Dr. Huntley, the Chairman of the Health and Human Services committee has been the driving force behind liberal health care reform for many years. Immediately after Huntley stepped aside, a fellow UMD professor announced her candidacy. Dr. Jennifer Schultz, a professor of economics, specializing in medical economic policy is running as a younger clone of Huntley. Schultz was quickly anointed by the DFL establishment as the heir apparent to this deep blue seat. Republicans are running former political staffer Becky Hall, who has raised a respectable sum of money in her own right, but this D+14 seat won’t be close. In 7B, we have a rematch between Representative Erik Simonson (DFL) and Travis Silvers. Silvers is making is 3rd run for office, having never really come close, and has raised a grand total of 310 dollars this cycle. Life is rough being a Duluth Republican trying to win an election. It is amazing to think that Chris Dahlberg has had electoral success here, but running for a nonpartisan office allows a certain degree of political anonymity.
House A
Obama (D) 67-30
Nolan (D) 68-32
Huntley (D) 71-29
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 70-28
Nolan (D) 70-30
Simonson (D) 62-22-16 (serious write in campaign by a fellow Democrat)
Safe (Safe D)
District 8: This is blood red farm territory in NW Minnesota, so much so that Amy Klobuchar lost this district in 2006. That really does sum up the political leanings of Ottertail and Douglas Counties. In 8A, long time GOP Representative Bud Nornes is assured a spot back in St. Paul again for a 10th term. Democrats managed to put up a sacrificial lamb in Cargill engineer Jim Miltich. Nornes won by 26 in 2012, and likely will repeat his performance in 2014 against the underfunded Mitich. This entire area should be safely Republican; however, district 8B is the home of one Mary Franson. Franson is a famously loud candidate that nearly lost her district, which is one of the most heavily Republican in the entire state. After a recount, she ended up winning by 12 votes against high school football coach Bob Cunniff. Cunniff is not taking another shot at Franson, but the Democrats have recruited Alexandria Community College professor and former head of the Minnesota FFA, Jay Sieling to take on Franson. Sieling seems to be running a race as a safe farm-centric (think Collin Peterson) candidate that is not Mary Franson. Franson herself was challenged from the RIGHT by Otter Tail County GOP Chairwoman Sue Nelson, but after 7 ballots, she fended off the challenge. There was some chatter that Nelson would run in the primary anyways, but she did not file the paperwork, so it is Franson’s nomination. In reality this race has almost nothing to do with Jay Sieling, and everything to do with Mary Franson. Franson’s handlers have wisely kept her out of the spotlight, and she has not made any controversial statements recently, allowing the R next to her name to likely carry her to victory.
House A
Romney (R) 59-39
Peterson (D) 56-40
Nornes (R) 63-37
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Romney (R) 58-40
Peterson (D) 55-40
Franson (R) 49.98-49.94 (10642-10630)
Likely R (Toss-up)
District 9: This is an agricultural and summer cabin district north of St. Cloud and west of Brainerd that was not-so-long-ago competitive for Democrats, but I think those days are now behind us now. This was a notion cemented by Senator Paul Gazelka (R) easily handling former Representative Al Doty (DFL) here in the 2012 senate race. In 2012 in 9A, pilot Mark Anderson (R) won this open and newly-drawn seat. He faced more opposition in the primary than in the general ultimately. There is an interesting name that stepped up to face Representative Anderson, Dan Bye, the 30 year old son of legendary 8th congressional district chairman Don Bye. In spite of his last name, Bye fell flat on his face, and his campaign never got off the ground, leaving Anderson free and clear for his first reelection campaign. In 9B freshman incumbent Republican Ron Kresha was thought to have an easy reelection campaign, until the aforementioned Doty decided to file for his old seat after unsuccessfully trying to move up in 2012. Honestly, Doty’s entrance was a surprise to me, but he appears to have not lost a step, outraising the incumbent Kresha significantly. ConservaDem Doty represented the 2002-2012 version of this district from 2007-2011. For what it’s worth, Doty lost his home district to the incumbent Gazelka 51-49., and I expect this to be a 51-49 race, whoever wins. I give Gazelka the slightest of edges based on the trajectory of the district.
House A
Romney (R) 60-37
Peterson (D) 58-37 (~60%)
Cravaack (R) 58-41 (~40%)
Anderson (R) 58-42
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Romney (R) 60-37
Peterson (D) 58-37 (~20%)
Cravaack (R) 57-43 (~80%)
Kresha (R) 53-47
Tilt R (Lean R)
District 10: This was a new district in 2012 by combining bits of other surrounding districts. It is fairly conservative area that has two DFL representatives, including a 28 year old freshman, and a GOP senator. 10A, which consists mostly of Brainerd with some of western Crow Wing County in there as well, is the more Republican of the two districts, but John Ward (DFL) is a popular 4-term incumbent. Ward is running for his 5th term this November against Republican Josh Heintzman, the chairman of the Crow Wing County Republican Party. Heintzman is a step above Ward’s 2012 candidate, but it wasn’t exactly a squeaker for Ward last time around as he won comfortably by 14. Ward has outraised Heintzman, but thanks to a personal loan from Heintzman, the difference is not that great. For what it’s worth, both Stewart Mills III and Rick Nolan both live in 10A. Over in the slightly more DFL 10B, which is eastern Crow Wing County and all of Aitkin County, we have the young freshman, Representative Joe Radinovich (DFL). Radinovich has already garnered a bit of a name for himself by destroying former State Representative David Schaaf in the 2012 DFL primary for this seat, and then going on to win the general election 51-49 in this GOP leaning area against Republican Dale Lueck. Lueck is back for a rematch, and given the closeness of the race last time, and the reddish tint to the district, Radinovich could be in serious trouble. I have to give it to Radinovich though; the kid’s got panache when it comes to campaigning. He has raised the second most money of any outstate politician Democrat or Republican, has outraised Lueck 2:1, and has been all accounts ran a masterful campaign. Still, I have a bad feeling about this district, and while I no longer think Radinovich is dead in the water, I think he is a slight underdog for reelection. If he survives, look for Radinovich to be a major contender for Nolan’s seat when Nolan retires, which is not too far away.
House A
Romney (R) 55-43
Cravaack (R) 52-48
Ward (D) 57-43
Likely D (Likely D)
House B
Romney (R) 53-44
Cravaack (R) 49.92-49.75 (11053-11017)
Radinovich (D) 51-49
Tilt R (Lean R)
District 11: This district is based south of Duluth. The northern part of the district has a decidedly Iron Range flavor, and the southern portion is North Woods, but no Iron Range (picture the Venn diagram). The DFL is absolutely dominant in Carlton County to the north, and has a fair presence in the southern part of this district as well. In 11A, union leader Mike Sundin (DFL) easily won his first term in the then-open Carlton County district. Sundin will easily win his second term against Tim Hafvenstein, the 2006 and 2008 GOP candidate against then-DFL Representative Bill Hilty. In 11B, incumbent Tim Faust is looking for his 4th non-consecutive term in office, having been swept out for a term by the Red Wave of 2010. Faust faces IBEW union electrician and union official Jason Rarick. Rarick seems to be trying to hitch his wagon as closely to Stewart Mills as possible. Faust is a seasoned politician, but this district specifically may be tough for Democrats in November. Faust seems to be playing up his career as a Lutheran minister as a way to mitigate the attacks on his vote for gay marriage in 2013. Either polling must have shown a shift in the subject, or his preemptive defense worked, because the attacks on that front have been nonexistent for months. The fundamentals favor Faust, but I don’t see him as an especially strong incumbent, nor do I see Rarick as an especially strong challenger. So while this race could easily go either way, tie goes to the incumbent here.
House A
Obama (D) 62-36
Nolan (D) 63-37
Sundin (D) 64-30
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Romney (R) 51-47
Nolan (D) 51-49
Faust (D) 51-49
Tilt D (Toss up)
District 12: This is old school Farmer Labor country, specifically from the Farmer faction. This is Peterson country, with sugar beets, corn, and soybeans as far as the eyes can see. This is one area that the DFL prospects dim as time goes on. Politics isn’t a zero sum game, but as the DFL gains in some of the suburbs, the “F” faction of the DFL is dying off. This is also home of Senator Torrey Westrom, who is challenging Peterson for his U.S. House seat. In 12A, former Elbow Lake mayor Jay McNamar managed to win a narrow plurality election for the open seat against Brandom mayor Scott Dutcher. McNamar is facing another former small town mayor Jeff Backer, of Browns Valley, and the district hasn’t gotten bluer in the last 2 years. I give the edge to Backer, as this area is just getting too tough for Democrats. And if McNamar manages to win in 2014, it’s only a matter of time. 12B is substantially more Republican than 12A, and Paul Anderson (R) hasn’t done anything to upset voters in his 3 terms. He is safe against DFL challenger Pope County Commissioner Gordy Wagner. Wagner is a solid recruit, and should keep Anderson under 60%, but that’s about it.
House A
Romney (R) 52-46
Peterson (D) 64-32
McNamar (D) 47-46
Likely R (Lean R)
House B
Romney (R) 62-36
Peterson (D) 57-38
Anderson (D) 66-34
Safe R (Safe R)
District 13: This is more farm county surrounding St. Cloud, and is generally quite Republican, but has gone to the right Democrats now and then, such as Larry Hosch. Freshman representative Republican Jeff Howe should win 13A again comfortably against 2014 College of St. Benedict graduate Emily Jensen. Interesting line on a resume to have: first job out of college a candidate for Minnesota State House. But that’s all she will be able to put on that resume, as she won’t win. Republican incumbent Tim O’Driscoll did not get a challenger in 11B and will appear on the ballot unopposed.
House A
Romney (R) 57-41
Peterson (D) 56-38 (~20%)
Graves (D) 52-48 (~80%)
Howe (R) 59-41
Safe R (Likely R)
House B
Romney (R) 57-41
Graves (D) 52-48
O’Driscoll (R) 60-40
Safe R (Safe R)
District 14: This district is a dot of purple in a sea of red, consisting of St. Cloud and the immediate surrounding area. 14A is slightly more Republican currently but ancestrally even more Republican than the PVI would suggest. In 14A, partial term incumbent Tama Theis, who won the special election to replace Steve Gottwalt after he resigned in early 2013, is running for her first reelection. She won the 2013 contest 55-43. She will be facing Realtor and local high school football coach Dan Wolgamott, who is not politically experienced. Theis should win fairly easily, although her district is one place where Democrats are doing better than they used to, a rarity in outstate Minnesota. In 14B, freshman DFL representative Zach Dorholt won a surprisingly strong 13 point victory over incumbent GOP representative King Banaian (yes, that is is real name). Dorholt’s victory was surprising, as he substantially over performed Obama against an incumbent that hadn’t made any egregious errors. Dorholt has drawn perhaps the strongest challenger of any incumbent Democrat up for reelection in the form of former 12-year moderate GOP state representative Jim Knoblach. Knoblach opted to not seek reelection in 2006 in favor of a primary challenge to Michele Bachmann for MN-6, which was being vacated by Mark Kennedy who was running for U.S. Senate against Amy Klobuchar. Knoblach got his name back in the headlines earlier this year by suing the state of Minnesota for the new Capital Building renovations, which he has made a central tenant of his 2014 camapaign. The lawsuit was tossed out of court, but it provided the launching pad Knoblach wanted for a return to politics. The immediate St. Cloud area that makes up 14A is more Demoratic than when Knoblach represented it, but he was well liked when he left office. This will be a pivotal race for control of the legislature, as both parties have invested heavily here, with Knoblach raising money by the truckload, and getting a lot of top level staffers that were pulled from other triaged races. I have to give the edge to Knoblach here, even though this is one of the bluer districts the Republicans are targeting. I simply think the St. Cloud State University students stay home, and that’s enough to swing it to Knoblach.
House A
Romney (R) 50-48
Graves (D) 57-42
Gottwalt (R) 54-46
Likely R (Likely R)
House B
Obama (D) 53-43
Graves (D) 62-38
Dorholt (D) 56-43
Tilt R (Toss up)
District 15: This is a fairly Republican area east of St. Cloud, with the Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe reservation in 15A. The DFL didn’t put up any strong candidates in either race, so neither race is likely to be extremely competitive. Incumbent 15A GOP representative Sondra Erickson drew only a token Democrat in some dude James Rittenour, so she has had an easier go of it than she did in 2012 in the more moderate half of the senate district. In the more conservative 15B, freshman GOP incumbent Jim Newberger looks to repeat his victory over DFL lawyer Brian Johnson for the second time in two cycles, after winning by 16 in 2012.
House A
Romney (R) 55-42
Bachmann (R) 58-42 (~25%)
Cravaack (R) 51-49 (~75%)
Erickson (R) 52-47
Safe R (Likely R)
House B
Romney (R) 63-35
Bachmann (R) 55-45 (~99%)
Cravaack (R) 57-43 (~1%)
Newberger (R) 58-42
Safe R (Safe R)
District 16: This is basically a southern bank Minnesota River Valley district. 16A is not as ancestrally DFL as the northern bank of the Minnesota. 16A is represented by sophomore Republican Chris Swedzinski, who is not in danger of losing in 2014. This is Marty Seifert’s old stomping grounds. Representative Swedzinski faces Democrat Laurie Dreissen in November. Dreissen seems to have run a semi-respectable campaign, but isn’t a threat to the incumbent. Downstream from 16A on the Minnesota River lies the more Republican 16B. Paul Torkelson (R) lives here, and has represented the area since being first elected in 2008. He faces DFLer James Kanne, but the general election is a formality, as Kanne is running a futile rematch of 2012.
House A
Romney (R) 52-45
Peterson (D) 62-34
Swedsinski (R) 57-43
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Romney (R) 57-40
Walz (D) 53-46 (~60%)
Peterson (D) 58-37 (~40%)
Torkelson (R) 56-32-12 (Strong IP presence)
Safe R (Safe R)
District 17: We cross the river to the north side of the Minnesota River here. This is substantially more DFL leaning than the southern bank, even if not fully reflected in presidential PVI. I had my questions about the senate race in 2012, but Lyle Koenen won the incumbent vs. incumbent matchup with GOP senator Joe Gimse fairly handily, so the old loyalties aren’t dead here yet. As far as the 2014 House races go, 31 year-old 3-term incumbent rep. Andrew Falk (DFL) is running for reelection in 17A. Falk faces the man he defeated 2 years ago, Tim Miller (R). One big advantage that Falk has had is a massive warchest that he did not dip into to win by 8 points in 2012. He must be feeling confident, as he has banked more money than he has raised in 2014 while Miller has spent almost everything he raised, and has had outside groups spending on his behalf. I hope that Falk still knows what he is doing, and isn’t getting too cocky, as he is well to the left of a lot of Democrats and voters in this area, but voters have known that since he was a 25 year old running for office for the first time in 2008. Still, everyone I’ve talked to feels like Falk is in good shape going into Tuesday. In 17B freshman DFL Representative, teacher Mary Sawatzky is running for reelection. Sawatzky won a narrow plurality election against incumbent GOP representative Bruce Vogel. Vogel did not opt to seek a rematch, and the Republican banner will be carried by hotel/restaurant executive David Baker. Baker brought personal money to the race, but has not had to dip into his own coffers, as he has garnered a lot of donations elsewhere, outraising the incumbent significantly. I suspect he wins, as Sawatzky is generally not considered a strong incumbent, and when Republicans are badly training Democrats on the money front, a GOP candidate that outraised the incumbent he is challenging must be taken seriously.
House A
Romney (R) 51-47
Peterson (D) 63-33
Falk (D) 54-46
Lean D (Lean D)
House B
Romney (R) 51-47
Peterson (D) 55-40
Sawatzky (D) 48-44
Likely R (Lean R)
District 18: This is where the exurbs meet the cornfields. This is prime Republican territory. In 18A, 12-year incumbent Dean Urdahl (R) is running for his 7th term, and is a lock for it. Urdahl faces 2012 DFL candidate for Senate District 18, Steven Schiroo. Schiroo lost to Senator Scott Newman by the same 58-42 margin that Urdahl carried this district by against Nancy Larson last cycle. In 18B, sophomore Republican representative Glen Gruenhagen faces a Democratic some due John Lipke. No matter, Guenhagen will romp regardless.
House A
Romney (R) 58-40
Bachmann (R) 62-38 (~10%)
Peterson (D) 52-41 (~90%)
Urdahl (R) 58-42
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Romney (R) 60-37
Peterson (D) 49-43
Gruenhagen (R) 58-42
Safe R (Safe R)
District 19: This is essentially Mankato and Nicollet County in south-central Minnesota, and is pretty blue turf. In 2012, 2 of the 3 DFLers running for reelection didn’t even have Republican opponents. That is not the case in 2014, however. Terry Morrow (19A-DFL) resigned shortly after winning unopposed, and the special election to succeed him was easily won by now-Representative Carl Johnson (DFL) over quixotic former State Representative Al Quist and an Independence candidate 53-36-10. Johnson is running for reelection against Republican Kim Spears, a last-minute filer and Some Dudette. Johnson will win handily. In 19B, which is effectively Mankato proper, 4-term representative Kathy Brynaert chose to retire instead of run for another term after her 70th birthday. In the seat she is vacating there will be a head to head matchup of Mankato City Councilman Jack Consadine (DFL), and small business owner Dave Kruse (GOP). Kruse was unopposed in his bid for the nomination, but Consadine had a contentious endorsement battle with fellow member of the Mankato City Counsel, Karen Foreman. After 5 ballots however, Consadine crossed the 60% threshold, and Foreman and Brynaert immediately endorsed him. Consadine is a prohibitive favorite in November.
House A
Obama (D) 52-45
Walz (D) 63-37
Morrow (D) 100% (Unopposed)
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 57-40
Walz (D) 65-35
Brynaert (D) 64-36
Safe D (Likely D)
District 20. The northern portion of this district is some far flung exurbs(A), and the southern part (B) is actually DFL leaning farmland and the liberal college town of Northfield, former home of Senator Paul Wellstone. Kelby Woodard (R) won a nailbiter 37-vote victory over David Bly in 2010, and then underperformed Romney against a nobody in 2012. Kelby is a staunch Kurt Daudt ally, and serves as Assistant Minority Leader. Once seen as a rising state in the Republican Party, he has decided to hang it up after 2 terms. Running to replace Kelby is former Scott County Commissioner Bob Vogel. Vogel is a long time bank executive, and presumably has plenty of money to throw around here. He has not needed to self fund in this 58-40 Romney district however. Vogel will run against and beat DFLer Tom Lofgren. Interestingly, Lofgren wasn’t supposed to be the nominee at all. Tom Rees, a former Republican state legislator (circa 1979-1987) had filed for the office as a Democrat on the same day that Lofgren did, but unexpectedly withdrew his nomination 2 days later to avoid the primary. Rees’ candidacy was something I was keeping an eye on, but not so much for Lofgren. In 20B, David Bly (DFL) has settled into his 2012 redrawn blue district, after serving 2 terms in a purpler district previously. Bly, a former teacher, will face Republican Dan Matejcek. Matejcek, from what I understand, is not a standard political candidate, and does not have political tact, or have a firm grasp of issues. As he proclaimed at his own nomination convention speech that he simply doesn’t want to embarrass himself. As a result, his campaign never garnered much attention, or money.
House A
Romney (R) 58-40
Walz (D) 54-46 (~40%)
Kline (R) 66-34 (~60%)
Woodard (R) 54-45
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Obama (D) 54-44
Quist (R) 54-44 (~40%)
Obermueller (D) 61-39 (~60%)
Bly (D) 57-43
Safe D (Safe D)
District 21: This is very marginal territory overall that essentially covers the SE corner of Kline’s district along the Mississippi river. I was actually kind of surprised when Obama within 3 points of Romeny, as I figured this would be a 55/45 R area, as it had been previously. Either way, it is pretty swingy now, with the two incumbent Republicans sweeping their two house seats, and the DFL surprisingly winning the senate race with Matt Schmit unseating Senator John Howe (R). So the area is slowly moving to the left, albeit slower than a lot of other areas in MN-2. Rep Tim Kelly (R-21A) is running for his 4th term after winning 57-22 in the bluer of the two districts, which was actually won by Obama by 4 points. Kelly, a former member of the Redwing School Board, faces silica-sand mining opponent, Wabasha City Councilwoman Lynn Schoen. This topic has been of great debate in the sandstone-rich region of SE Minnesota. There are a host of issues like increased train traffic, North Dakota oil spills and such. Environmentalists in the region have taken up the cause of preventing the sand they use in North Dakota oil and gas extraction from being quarried there. The battle lines have been drawn in the area with about a 50/50 split. I didn’t see a strong chance for a candidate running a single-issue campaign, and Shoen’s campaign never really got much traction. In the more Republican 21B, incumbent Steve Drazkowski (R) is running for his 4th full term, after winning a special election victory for his seat upon the resignation of Steve Sviggum (R) in early 2007. Mark Schneider, the man whom Drazkowski pounded 65-35 in 2010 is giving it a second shot after not running in 2012. The Right-to-work advocate Drazkowski is among the safest Republicans in the state, even though his district is not among the most conservative.
House A
Obama (D) 51-47
Kline (R) 53-47
Kelly (R) 57-42
Safe R (Likely R)
House B
Romney (R) 54-44
Walz (D) 56-44 (~30%)
Kline (R) 59-41 (~70%)
Drazkowski (R) 58-42
Safe R (Safe R)
District 22: This is the southwest corner of the state, and full of corn fields. Once able to be won by Democrats, the area is now very Republican, and contains the only 2 counties in the entire state Amy Klouchar lost in 2012: Rock and Pipestone. 28 year-old Joe Schomacker first won this seat 6 months after returning to Minnesota after getting his MPA from George Washington University at age 24 in 2010. He drew a Some Dude(tte) challenger in Dianna Slyther, but that’s just a formality, as he will win 60-40. Next door in 22B, Rod Hamilton, first elected in 2004, is equally assured of a 6th term against the woman he defeated in 2012: Cheryl Avenel-Navara. Avenel-Navara didn’t impress last time, and I don’t expect her to do so this round either.
House A
Romney (R) 56-41
Quist (R) 55-45 (~25%)
Peterson (D) 53-42 (~75%)
Schomacker (R) 59-41
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Romney (R) 54-44
Walz (D) 54-46 (~75%)
Peterson (D) 57-37 (~25%)
Hamilton (R) 60-40
Safe R (Safe R)
District 23: This is the south-central Minnesota district along the Iowa border. 21A will again reelect Bob Gunther (R) to another term in St. Paul, this time against Nurse Pat Bacon. Gunther has not been challenged seriously in 20 years, and is not in any danger this round either. Gun advocate representative Tony Cornish (R-23B), for the second cycle in a row, will not have a general election opponent, which is quite strange, as it is not nearly as Republican as some other districts in the state, and Cornish has a tendency to cause waves when it isn’t necessary. Either way, he can’t lose an election to a blank ballot line.
House A
Romney (R) 59-39
Quist (R) 52-48
Gunther (R) 56-44
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Romney (R) 50-47
Walz (D) 59-41
Cornish (R) 96% (Unopposed)
Safe R (Safe R)
District 24: This is a locally swingy area around Owatana in southern Minnesota that is more Republican upballot. Unlike a lot of other farm areas, this one isn’t really moving right, as Owatana has long been a Republican bastion. It has actually started to move left downballot while the top of the ticket has stayed marginally Republican, making it quite unique in terms of political trends. DFLer Vicki Jensen won the open senate seat in 2012 when Paulite Senator Mike Perry chose to take a shot at Walz in MN-1, losing the nomination to Quist. In the more Republican 24A, freshman GOP representative John Petersburg is running for a second term against last-minute filer Beverly Cashman. Cashman is a music teacher that and political neophyte, but has managed to keep near parody with the incumbent. Still, Petersburg has had a fairly straight forward reelection campaign after fighting in a contested race in 2012. Patti Fritz (DFL) in 24B has been a top-level Republican target since she was first elected in 2004, and her margins have never been stellar due to that fact, along with the nature of the district. Although in 2012 she performed better than many people, myself included, thought she would. The next hurdle for her is Brian Daniels. Daniels is a recent transplant to the Owatana area, and is best known as 29A State Representative Marion O’Niell’s little brother. Until recently Daniels was a resident of Bagley Minnesota, on the clear opposite side of the state. Obviously having a sister in the chamber is a campaign asset, but is had a strange kickoff saying that he and Fritz agree on most issues, and that he likes her personally. It has been a surprisingly quiet campaign, with some prognosticators taking it off the board entirely. I am not willing to do that, but Fritz looks better than she did earlier this year.
House A
Romney (R) 52-45
Walz (D) 54-46
Petersburg (R) 52-48
Safe R (Likely R)
House B
Romney (R) 50-47
Walz (D) 54-46 (~95%)
Kline (R) 61-39 (~5%)
Fritz (D) 57-43
Likely D (Lean D)
Districts 25 and 26. I do this together, as they are essentially mirror images of each other. 25B and 26A are Rochester, and have gone from a Republican bastion to a DFL stronghold in just a few short years. This used to be the land of Republicans like Gil Gutknecht, but those days have passed as the Mayo Clinic has exploded and more educated liberals move to the area for work. 25A and 26B are the surrounding areas around Rochester, and are currently Republican seats, as they have not seen the influx that Rochester proper has. 25A GOP Representative Duane Quam was challenged pretty intently in his 52% Romney district in 2012, but this cycle he gets the Tony Cornish treatment, having not drawn a general election opponent at all. Similarly in 25B, DFL incumbent Kim Norton does not have a Republican challenger this cycle, after beating Melissa Valeriano in 2012. In 26A we have a Rochester Rematch, with DFL incumbent Tina Liebling facing Rochester School Board member Republican Breanna Bly for the second time in as many cycles. Liebling won 59-41, and I expect a similar margin here this round as well. 26B is open after Mike Benson ran for the GOP nomination to take on Tim Walz. Strangely, Benson was left out of the running in what is turning out to be a strange, strange saga in MN-1 this cycle. Either way, it’s an open 53% Romney seat that was represented by a Republican (Benson) from 2010-2014, and a Democrat (Andy Welti) from 2004-2010, and another Republican (Bill Quisle, Jeff Johnson’s 2014 LG running mate) before that. Still, this is not an even playing field for Democrats, as Welti was a special candidate. The leading candidate for this open seat is GOPer Nels Pierson. Pierson is the chairman of the Olmsted County GOP, and has been in and around campaigns for a long time. Democrats got a good candidate here too in Richard Wright, the president of the Olmsted County Bar Association, and a school board member. Given the completive nature of the race, I expected it to garner more attention. Both candidates raised about the same amount of money, and outside interest simply has not been there the way it has been in other outstate districts. Given the lean of the district, I give Pierson the edge. Perhaps I missed something, but this has been a dud of a race where I didn’t expect a dud.
House 25A
Romney (R) 52-45
Walz (D) 53-47
Quam (R) 54-45
Safe R (Safe R)
House 25B
Obama (D) 53-44
Walz (D) 58-41
Norton (D) 58-42
Safe D (Safe D)
House 26A
Obama (D) 57-40
Walz (D) 63-37
Liebling (D) 59-41
Safe D (Safe D)
House 26B
Romney (R) 53-44
Walz (D) 52-48
Benson (R) 57-43
Lean R (Lean R)
Districts 27. This area is fairly strong DFL cornfields along the Iowa border, akin to neighboring IA-1 to the south. 27A is more or less Albert Lea/ Freeborn County, and 27B is more or less Austin/Mower County. In 27A, freshman DFLer Shannon Savick unseated accidental 1-term GOP representative Rich Murray. Murray raised gobs and gobs of cash for his reelection bid, but Savick pulled off the win anyways. Savick is facing retired teacher Peggy Bennet, who has generated a lot of buzz in Republican circles. The IP is choosing to play here after making a decent showing in 2012, which can always be a wildcard. Still, Savick beat a stronger, and incumbent, Republican in 2012 with IP interference then. This is a 55/42 Obama district, but Savick is once again losing the dollars game. This race is going to be a lot closer than I thought it would be initially. 27B incumbent Democratic Representative Jeanne Poppe has represented her 60% Obama district for a decade. She has drawn a retired Republican businessman opponent in the form of Dennis Schminke. Schminke actually has seemed to be a decent candidate for a political newbie. Still, Poppe is not going anywhere.
House A
Obama (D) 55-42
Walz (D) 64-36
Savick (D) 48-44-8 (IP Candidate)
Tilt D (Likely D)
House 2B
Obama (D) 60-38
Walz (D) 67-33
Poppe (D) 63-37
Safe D (Safe D)
District 28: This is the southeastern corner of the state along the Iowa/Wisconsin border and the Mississippi river around and south of the college town of Winona. The northern part around Winona is generally a solidly DFL area, while the southern 28B is more swingy with an EVEN PVI. Interestingly, this is home to GOP Senator Jeremy Miller, the scion of a local Republican family. Miller isn’t up until 2016, but he is going to be very difficult to unseat, even then. Gene Pelowski (DFL) has represented the Winona area in the House of Representatives since his first election in 1986, and has not been challenged seriously in decades. Pelowski drew 21-year old Winona State University student Lynae Hahn. I have no idea who Miss Hahn is really, but she is listed as the campus Republican President. Kudos to her for throwing together a campaign complete with campaign manager, treasurer, bank account, and campaign finance board paperwork; I certainly could not have done that at 21. There are incumbents that have trouble getting all their paperwork in on time. It matters for naught though, as Pelowski is bulletproof. In 28B there is Republican incumbent Greg Davids, who has represented this area more or less since 1991. He did lose for a single term in 2006, but won against the man who defeated him, Ken Tschumper against the 2008 headwind. Davids and Tschumper have run a number of times against one another, most recently in 2012, but Tschumper is sitting this one out. Instead, Davids will face off against DFL restaurateur Jon Pieper. Pieper seems to have a bit of money, but has not made more than a trivial loan to his own cause, but has raised a decent amount externally. It isn’t 100% safe for Davids, given the fact that he has lost this district in the recent past, and it is a marginal district, but he is verging on safe, but I am not 99% sure he will win. 95%? Absolutely, but not 99.
House A
Obama (D) 56-41
Walz (D) 62-38
Pelowski (D) 67-33
Safe D (Safe D)
House 26B
Obama (D) 52-46
Walz (D) 59-41
Davids (R) 58-41
Likely R (Likely R)
District 29: Centered in some of the western exurbs centered around Buffalo in blood red Wright County, there are two unopposed Republicans. Sophomore Joe Joe McDonald and freshman Marion O’Neil didn’t draw a single opponent between them.
House A
Romney (R) 60-38
Bachmann (R) 54-45
McDonald (R) 62-38
Safe R (Safe R)
House 26
Romney (R) 57-40
Bachmann (R) 52-47
Chrissis (R) 50-42
Safe R (Safe R)
District 30: Much like district 29, but even more Republican and centered around St. Michael/Albertville and Elk River. Former Elk River City Councilman Nick Zerwas easily won his inaugural race for the state legislature in 2012, and is a shoo-in for a second. Zerwas faces young DFL upstart Brednen Ellingboe, who is running a “True Believer” unabashedly progressive campaign. It won’t matter, as he will lose 2:1 against Zerwas. Firebrand Dayton city councilman Eric Lucero, who had entered against David FitzSimmons after he voted to allow gay marriage in Minnesota in 2013, won his primary against more mainstream St. Michael City Councilman Kevin Kasel. St. Michael is significantly larger than Dayton, so the smaller town candidate winning definitely shows the fervor put into the race from the religious right after the gay marriage debate. FitzSimmons, you may remember, supported the same sex marriage bill that passed in 2013, and from that point forward it was clear he would not receive the GOP endorsement for his race again, so he chose to retire than be shown the door at the convention. Lucero will easily defeat FitzSimmons’ 2012 opponent Sharon Shimek.
House A
Romney (R) 58-39
Bachmann (R) 53-46
Zerwas (R) 64-36
Safe R (Safe R)
House 26B
Romney (R) 62-36
Bachmann (R) 55-45
FitzSimmons (R) 62-38
Safe R (Safe R)
District 31: This is the part of Anoka County that makes Anoka County Republican. The rest of the county is actually pretty marginal, but this area is blood red exurbs. Kurt Daudt (R-31A) may be the luckiest politician in the state. After his “Montana incident”, I was astonished when I found out that he not only got his party’s endorsement, but he didn’t even get a general election opponent. On the other side of the district, Tom Hackbarth got his token DFL opponent of the cycle in the form of public health official JD Holmquist. Hackbarth will win easily.
House A
Romney (R) 62-35
Bachmann (R) 58-42 (~75%)
Cravaack (R) 58-42 (~25%)
Daudt (R) 60-39
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Romney (R) 59-38
Bachmann (R) 54-46
Hackbarth (R) 61-39
Safe R (Safe R)
District 32: This is Chisago and Isanti Counties, which up until fairly recently was winnable for Democrats, and as recently as 2010 had DFL representation in these seats. However those two counties, while stagnating in population now after 15 years of explosive growth, became one of the Republican epicenters of the state. In 32A, which is more or less Cambridge and unpopulated areas in Isanti and western Chisago Counties, we have a rematch of 2012. GOP Representative Brian Johnson, a former police officer, faces off once more against Paul Gammel, a fellow police officer himself. I don’t see this race going any differently than the last time, with a solid mid-to-upper single digit Johnson victory all but assured. 32B is essentially the eastern part of Chisago County, including North Branch. In one of the tightest races in the state last cycle, 2010 wave Republican incumbent Bob Barrett faced off against former State Senator Rick Olseen and pulled off a 391 vote victory. Olseen is not running again, but Democrats got an interesting candidate in former Duluth(!!!) City Councilwoman Laurie Warner. I met Mrs. Warner while she was a member of the Duluth City Council a decade ago, and she is a pure populist. She is a union official and a church deacon. I am not sure how the people in North Branch will react to her only living in the area for a handful of years (he husband is from there, FWIW). I still give a strong edge to Barrett, but Warner has outraised him.
House A
Romney (R) 57-41
Cravaack (R) 54-46
Johnson (R) 51-44
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Romney (R) 55-43
Cravaack (R) 53-47
Barrett (R) 51-49
Likely R (Likely R)
District 33: Money Money Money Money. This includes the wealthiest areas of the entire state around Lake Minnetonka, plus exurbs not around the lake. The exceedingly wealthy in Minnesota lean Republican but not to the same level they do in other states, and the exurbanites in district 33B are as conservative as the ones in 29 and 30. This district actually saw more than its fair share of insurgent Tea Party type candidates unseat incumbents in 2012 in their primaries. Freshman Jerry Hertaus in 33A represents all of the blood red sparsely populated areas on the western edge of Hennepin County. Moderate DFL businessman Todd Mikkelson is taking another stab at this seat after losing to Hertaus in 2012. Mikkelson actually did fairly decently for a Democrat in the area, but this area is just so incredibly red it is hard to see him doing much better this round; Hertaus is safe. In 33B, there is perhaps the second biggest Republican bomb thrower in the state legislature (behind Mary Franson) in Cindy Pugh. Pugh was one of the Tea Party candidates mentioned above, and she has not shied away from stirring the pot with some comments one might have expected based on how her initial 2012 campaign went. Pugh faces a no-name Democrat Paul Alegi. Pugh will likely lag in the richer, and less cookie-cutter mansion exurban Lake Minnetonka district. And Alegi has not been nearly strong enough to make Pugh sweat, but expect her to run 20+ points behind Paulsen’s margin of victory here, and 10+ points behind the GOP statewide ticket’s.
House A
Romney (R) 62-36
Paulsen (R) 70-30
Hertaus (R) 62-38
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Romney (R) 55-44
Paulsen (R) 63-37
Barrett (R) 54-46
Safe R (Likely R)
District 34: Maple Grove. In terms of raw vote totals, Maple Grove is one of the places Republicans need to run up the margins to be competitive statewide. After a decade of smooth reelection efforts, Republican Joyce Peppin is running unopposed in 34A. Former Speaker Zellers represents 34B, but retired in order to pursue a race against Mark Dayton, the nomination which he lost to Jeff Johnson in the primary. Zellers’ campaign treasurer Dennis Smith won the GOP endorsement at the party convention, and his primary opponent Osseo School Board Member Dean Henke withdrew and endorsed Zellers’ right hand man for the seat. Smith will face off against construction company owner David Hoden, who ran and lost to Zellers (when Zellers was the sitting Speaker) in 2012. Hoden actually did pretty well against Zellers, and has raised the same amount of money as Smith. I expect Smith to win, but it is not a 100% lock
House A
Romney (R) 58-40
Paulsen (R) 67-33
Peppin (R) 64-36
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Romney (R) 51-47
Paulsen (R) 61-39
Zellers (R) 55-45
Likely R (Likely R)
District 35: This is Branden Petersen’s senate district. Peterson burst onto the scene as a 24 year old unabashedly Tea Party backed candidate in 2010, then looked for a swift promotion to the Senate following a double bunking in redistricting. Peterson surprised many by being a leading advocate of the Same Sex Marriage bill that passed in 2013, as he was a cosponsor of the Anti Same Sex Marriage Amendment that was put to the voters (and subsequently defeated) in 2012. Regardless, Petersen isn’t up until 2016, but the house seats in his senate district are. In 35A is actually home to Republican Jim Abeler, who ran against and lost to Mike McFadden in the GOP Senate Primary in August. GOP staffer Abigail Whealan got the endorsement on the first ballot at the convention, and subsequently won her primary. Whealan meets Peter Perovich (DFL-Ramsey) on Tuesday in the GE. Perovich is actually a widely respected expert on fisheries, which is kind of a big deal in a a state with >13000 lakes, and more shoreline than California, Florida, and Hawaii combined. It also doesn’t hurt that this district abuts the Mississippi River on the eastern bank. Perovich’s solid 2012 showing against Petersen in the 2012 senatorial election set the bar high for him, and that is why his feckless campaign in 2014 has come as a big surprise. Whealan has campaigned circles around Perovich, and now has a safe lock on a district that seemed competitive just a few months ago. On the B side the race appears to be far less interesting, as the district is substantially more Republican, and Peggy Scott (R-Andover) is easily expected to win her 4th term in St. Paul. She faces off against Sam Beard, an old Bobby Kennedy(!!!) staffer, and current National Development Council president. Beard lost the primary for this seat in 2012 against Sam Scott, whom Peggy Scott (no relation, AFAIK) defeated in the general election. Beard is old, and appears to have fallen off of the face of the earth down the home stretch. Expect Scott to romp.
House A
Romney (R) 52-45
Gaves (D) 51-49
Abeler (R) 59-33-8
Safe R (Lean R)
House B
Romney (R) 57-41
Bachmann (R) 54-46 (~75%)
Paulsen (R) 60-39 (~25%)
Scott (R) 59-41
Safe R (Safe R)
District 36: This is moderate to DFL area along the Mississippi river in the NW suburbs, with B being slightly more Democratic than A. In 2012, Republicans got THE candidate in 2012 in the form of Mark Uglem, the sitting mayor of Champlain Park, to run in 36A. Uglem managed to win a tightly contested race against DFLer Grace Baltich. Taking on Uglem this cycle is teacher and college professor Jefferson Fietek. I don’t think that Fietek is as strong of a candidate as Baltich was, but he has run a respectable campaign against the incumbent, even outraising Uglem by a trivial %6,000 margin. I still think Uglem is in good shape, but he has not put the race away yet. 10-year incumbent DFL Representative Melissa Hortman is a perennial target of the GOP, but she seems to be remarkably consistent in her reelection victories, getting 51-55% against strong GOP opposition. This cycle will be no different, as the Republicans are once again gunning for her with Brooklyn Park City Councilman Peter Crema. As always, Hortman can’t be considered safe in a center-left district against a strong Republican, but we’ve been down this road before, repeatedly.
House A
Romney (R) 49-48
Paulsen (R) 58-41
Uglem (R) 51-49
Likely R (Likely R)
House B
Obama (D) 53-45
Paulsen (R) 54-46
Hortman (D) 55-40
Likely D (Likely D)
District 37: Blaine and Spring Lake Park, with a sliver of Coon Rapids. Blaine leans ever so slightly Republican now, but it used to be a DFL stronghold and is close to 50/50, while Spring Lake Park and Coon Rapids are center-left suburbs that swing violently with the tide. This district is also one of the strongest IP areas in the entire state, and was integral to Jesse Ventura’s victory in 1998. 37A is the more DFL friendly of the two House districts containing the Spring Lake Park and Coon Rapids portions of the district, and now-77 year old Jerry Newton (DFL-Coon Rapids) came out of retirement in 2012 to take back his old seat. He faces the same woman he faced last cycle in GOP Staffer Mandy Benz. Newton won 57-43 last time around, and is a long-time institution in the area. Benz is a solid candidate, but this is too much of an uphill climb for the young operative. Newton has banked the majority of his funds raised this cycle, and has more CoH now than he did on January 1, and Benz has spent most of her shoesting budget. In the more Republican 37B, Tim Sanders is a strong 32 year-old incumbent, and survived a primary from the right in 2012. Sanders is generally considered the best long-term prospect in the North Metro for the GOP, but isn’t conservative enough to win a primary for his home congressional district, MN-6. His campaign seems to be running efficiently, but his fundraising has lacked, and got outraised by more than 3:2, and has spent his campaign’s last dime on this race. Outside spending has been surprisingly strong here, indicating that the race is closer than initially thought. Edge to the incumbent, but expect this one to be close, and about to go either way.
House A
Obama (D) 53-44
Paulsen (R) 52-47 (60%)
Graves (D) 60-40 (30%)
Ellison (D) 58-42 (10%)
Newton (D) 57-43
Safe D (Likely D)
House B
Romney (R) 49-48
Graves (D) 55-45
Sanders (R) 54-46
Tilt R (Likely R)
District 38: This district includes red exurbs and in the NW metro from Lino Lakes to Hugo, with 38B having some affluent purple/bluish suburbs thrown in. This is fairly sparsely populated space with bespeckled with McMansion housing developments. 26-year GOP incumbent Linda Runbeck is running for a 14th term. She is a prohibitive favorite against DFL sacrificial lamb Pat Davern. Former Majority Leader Matt Dean represents the eastern half 38B. I was sort of surprised he even bothered to run for reelection after he was unceremoniously omitted from leadership this cycle. He was part of the internal GOP purge that ultimately ended with 2010 product Kurt Daudt ending up as Minority Leader. But even if his own party pushed him aside, he is running for a 6th term, and his constituents will likely reelect him against his 2012 opponent Greg Pariseau. If open, there would be an outside chance at a DFL pick up with a strong White Bear Lake candidate like Pariseau, but it is much harder against Dean. Still, Pariseau had a solid showing in 2012 which keeps this out of the Safe category.
House A
Romney (R) 54-44
Graves (D) 51-48
Runbeck (R) 58-42
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Romney (R) 52-46
Bachmann (R) 52-48 (25%)
McCollum (D) 50-44 (75%)
Dean (R) 52-48
Likely R (Likely R)
District 39: Eastern Washington County. The Southern half (39B) is dominated by purple Stillwater, with the northern half (39A) of the district dominated by Red Forest Lake. In 39A, the Forest Lake district, 3-term GOP Representative Bob Dettmer is poised to win his 5th term in St. Paul against Some Dude Tim Stender (DFL). Dettmer is quite popular in his house district, and overperforms pretty much every other Republican in the area. In the Stillwater-based district, Republican Kathy Lohmer (R) who was swept in in 2010 survived a hard campaign in her first reelection effort against DFL businessman Tom Degree. Mr. Degree is trying his hand at it again and has outraised Lohmer for the second cycle in a row, but his financial advantage in 2012, was all for naught. I suspect the rematch goes much the same way as round 1, but Lohmer can’t be considered safe after being outraised in a purple suburban district, where Dayton and Franken are both likely to overperform Obama.
House A
Romney (R) 53-45
McCollum (D) 48-45 (25%)
Graves (D) 51-49 (70%)
Cravaack (R) 53-47 (5%)
Dettmer (R) 57-42
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Romney (R) 50-48
McCollum (D) 48-45
Lohmer (R) 53-47
Likely R (Likely R)
District 40: Brooklyn Park. Other than Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Duluth, Brooklyn Park gives the DFL the highest net vote total out of any city in the state. The political weight of this one suburb actually had quite a bit of weight when it comes to congressional cartography. Democrats wanted all of Brooklyn Park and Brooklyn Center in MN-3, while Republicans wanted all of it in MN-5. Ultimately the courts chose to split the area between the two. 40A incumbent Mike Nelson actually has an opponent this cycle in Republican Vietnam Veteran Chuck Sutphen, who ran against Nelson in 2010 when the lines of the district were more slightly more favorable to the GOP. Nelson was first elected in 2002, and hasn’t had a serious challenge to his tenure since. Like her western neighbor Nelson, 40B incumbent Deb Hilstrom is a long-term entrenched incumbent that is in no danger in her sapphire blue district. There was some discussion of her not running for reelection to her House seat when she threw her hat into the ring for the open SoS position. However her and fellow Representative Steve Simon had a cordial endorsement battle, and when Simon won on the first ballot (which was never publicly announced), Hilstrom gracefully conceded, and immediately went back to her cozy legislative perch. Hilstrom’s return to the ballot takes this seat off of the edge of the board, where it had snuck on at the last ratings time. The Republican Party is putting up Mali Marvin against Hilstrom, so she is not officially unopposed.
House A
Obama (D) 70-29
Barnes (D) 62-37
Nelson (D) 100% (Unopposed)
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 68-29
Barnes (D) 57-42 (25%)
Ellison (D) 70-30 (75%)
Hilstrom (D) 71-29
Safe D (Likely D)
District 41: Columbia Heights, Fridley, and New Brighton. These are some quite blue inner ring suburbs you’re going to find. I graduated high school in this district after relocating to the area as a teenager. I actually graduated with Representative Caroline Laine’s (41B) youngest daughter. Representative Laine was a school board member at the time. Connie Bernardy (DFL-41A) won her return to political office under the new lines for 2012, as she had previously served in the House from 2001-2006. She will face Republican lawyer Jeff Phillips. Bernardy is a sharp politician and this is a friendly district for her, so she is safe. The aforementioned Laine is in the bluer of the two districts, and is nearly universally known in the community, as the Laine family name has a long history in the area. The most interesting thing about this race seems to be Constitution Party candidate Tim Utz. Utz has this green campaign mini bus that he brings everywhere. He was the 2010 GOP candidate for this district, and the Constitution Party candidate in 2012. He is quite quixotic, but he does provide some much needed entertainment in the political world. There is also a Republican candidate in against Laine, 26-year-old upstart Camden Pike.
House A
Obama (D) 59-38
Ellison (D) 62-37 (70%)
McCollum (D) 58-36 (30%)
Bernardy (D) 62-38
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 62-35
Ellison (D) 65-34 (70%)
McCollum (D) 58-34 (30%)
Laine (D) 59-28-14
Safe D (Safe D)
District 42: This is northern Ramsey County: marginally DFL area in the north (~42A), and strong DFL area is the south (~42B) Incumbent Representative Dr. Barb Yarusso won her first shot at political office in 2012. Yarusso is a brilliant engineer, and has been working her swingy district hard for her first reelection campaign against Republican UPS manager Randy Jessup. Jessup was touted as a self-financer, but Yarusso has a lot of monied friends that financed her campaign well in 2012, and have done so again in 2014, outraising Jessup by a fair amount. This race has not turned out to be as expensive as initially expected. The fact that outside spending has stopped in the district, and Yurasso herself has taken her foot off the gas and is banking money instead of spending it is quite the tealeaf indicator here. I am not ready to put it to Safe D yet, simply due to its swingy nature, but it’s approaching it. In 42B, there is another professor as the incumbent Representative, Dr. Jason Isaacson (DFL). Isaacson has been a mainstay in DFL campaign circles for quite a long time considering he is only 43 years old himself. 42B is quite a bit bluer than 42A, so Republican nominee Heidi Gunderson has had a tougher row to hoe to get to St. Paul. Gunderson and her husband own a small concrete company, but she has not funded her own campaign. The money race has been close, with Isaacson only nominally outraising Gunderson in this low-dollar affair. So while Gunderson is not DOA, it is going to be real tough to unseat Isaacson in this 57% Obama district.
House A
Obama (D) 51-46
McCollum (D) 53-41
Yarusso (D) 53-47
Likely D (Lean D)
House B
Obama (D) 57-41
McCollum (D) 58-36
Isaacson (D) 58-42
Likely D (Likely D)
District 43: This is a district made up of inner and second ring suburbs to the north and east of St. Paul. It is a lot like district next door district 42, insomuch as 43A in the north is DFL leaning, and 43B is strongly DFL. If anything, district 43 is slightly bluer than 42. Last cycle, there was a hotly contested race for the DFL nomination, with Peter Fischer finally prevailing. Republican friends of mine were crowing about how Stacey Stout was an amazing candidate, that her campaign was flush with cash, and she was going to take this redrawn district from the DFL. I never really bought into the Stout hype, and she lost, but it was a 6-point race which is a decent showing for a Republican here. Stout is running again against Fischer, and like last cycle, both campaigns are flush with cash. I think she really believed she would win going into November 2012, and the wind in her campaign’s sails is not at the same level it was last cycle. Expect a similar result to last cycle. In 43B, 10-year incumbent DFL representative Leon Lillie is running for reelection, and is all but assured another term in the bluer of these two House districts. Lillie faces the awesomely named Justice Whitehorn (R) in November. Whitehorn is a business consultant, and a PhD candidate in his own right (lots of highly educated people live in Ramsey County, and their candidates seem to reflect that). Whitehorn, in spite of his awesome name, has had no campaign to speak of, and Lillie will cruise on Tuesday.
House A
Obama (D) 56-42
McCollum (D) 58-36
Fischer (D) 53-47
Likely D (Likely D)
House B
Obama (D) 57-40
McCollum (D) 59-33
Lillie (D) 60-39
Safe D (Safe D)
District 44: Rich suburbs but not really exurbs. Plymouth used to be a Republican stronghold, but has begun to show signs of leftward movement. While Minnetonka is a pretty DFL city, and moving further that direction steadily after formerly resembling Plymouth politically. This is Terri Bonoff’s senate district, and she is widely considered the DFL’s top potential recruit for MN-3, but she is too skittish to take on Paulsen. Bonoff isn’t up for reelection until 2016, however. 44A is the more Republican part of this district, and includes most of the city of Plymouth and is represented by Sarah Anderson (R) Sarah Anderson, at only 40 years old, may have a future in higher office down the road and would be a solid candidate to replace Paulsen if he chooses to run for higher office. A loss however may doom any prospects for advancement politically for her. I had given her a Safe R ranking in 2012, and to my surprise the race was quite a bit closer than I anticipated against a nobody Democrat. This caused me to take a look into Plymouth’s election results, and it appears as though the city has hit the inflection point that Minnetonka hit in 2004, and Edina hit in 2008, where the population no longer expands, and the Republican strength in the city decreases. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out, as if Plymouth starts voting like Minnetonka, Paulsen’s replacement will have a tough time getting elected as a Republican in MN-3. Representative Anderson faces off again against Businesswoman Audrey Britton again after defeating Britton 51-49 two years ago. The difference this cycle is that Anderson has failed to raise hardly anything, less than half of what her challenger raised (which wasn’t exactly gangbusters compared to other districts). While I still give Anderson the narrowest of edges, I would not be surprised to see Britton unseat her. This would have been considered a huge shock 30 months ago, as this territory was blood red in prior cycles, and Anderson appears to be napping at the wheel here. In 44B, DFLer John Benson chose to retire after 4 terms representing Minnetonka. Benson is a tireless campaigner, and would have been safe in 2014, but his retirement puts his district in play. There was a hugely contentious 3-way primary here between Tony Wagner, Jon Tollefson, and Jon Applebaum. This was necessitated after a convention was unable to separate any of them from the pack, with no candidate getting near 60%. I predicted a 34-33-33 race for Wagner, a narrow win over Applebaum, with Tollefson in 3rd in July, it turns out I wasn’t TOO far off, except Applebaum won 38-36 over Wagner, with Tollefson pulling 26%. Applebaum seemed to consolidate support of unions, and ran a better campaign. This was a very expensive and divisive primary. Applebaum spent a ton of money on securing the nomination, but has raised even MORE since then. Applebaum is one of only 2 candidates in the state of Minnesota to raise over $100,000 for the cycle. Applebaum faces Republican businessman Ryan Rutzick in November. I am surprised that Republicans couldn’t get a stronger candidate here, but Rutzick has not been a slouch on the financing front, but has been drwarfed by Applebaum’s massive warchest. It should be noted that Rutzick is only 33, and Applebaum is only 29. I give a decent edge to Applebaum, simply based on his campaign chops, and his spending differential. I expect that to carry the day over Star Tribune endorsed Rutzick.
House A
Romney (R) 51-48
Paulsen (R) 60-40
Anderson (R) 51-49
Tilt R (Lean R)
House B
Obama (D) 54-44
Paulsen (R) 54-46
Benson (D) 56-44
Likely D (Lean D)
District 45: Cystal, New Hope and Golden Valley. These are more working class inner suburbs, and home to General Mills. Representative Lyndon Carlson has won here without campaigning every biennium since 1972. Carlson is 74 years old, is the co-Dean of the House (along with Phyllis Kahn), and will be carried out of the Capital feet first. Republicans put up charter school advocate Richard Lieberman against Johnson, but it will be 60-40 Johnson, as it seems to be about those numbers every cycle for him. Lieberman has run on something I’ve never heard of a politician doing before: promising to email constituents and ask them how they want him to vote. A friend of mine lives in the district and met him while canvassing, and it turns out that he really has no intention of changing his vote on issues based on the opinions of his constituents. Ah well, a novel campaign concept is a novel campaign concept. In 45B, Mike Freiberg (DFL-Golden Valley) won his seat for life in 2012. He faces Republican Alma Wetzker in November, but 45B is even bluer than 45A, so the race is effectively moot.
House A
Obama (D) 59-39
Paulsen (R) 54-46 (25%)
Ellison (D) 62-38 (75%)
Carlson (D) 60-40
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 63-34
Ellison (D) 64-36
Freiberg (D) 66-34
Safe D (Safe D)
District 46: St. Louis Park and Hopkins. St. Louis Park has a large liberal Jewish population (including the Franken family), and Hopkins is an aging center-left upper-middle-class suburb. Outside of Minneapolis and St. Paul proper, this is probably the most liberal district in the state, though certainly not the most Democratic, electorally speaking. 46A incumbent Representative Ryan Winkler (DFL) is running against Republican Timothy O Manthey. Manthey has no campaign and raised all of $650, but I just found it interesting that he included his middle initial in is campaign committee’s name, in spite of not having a common name. kudos for style points. In 45B however, incumbent Steve Simon is the DFL candidate to replace the retiring Mark Ritchie as Secretary of State, which leaves that an open seat. Hopkins City councilwoman Cheryl (DFL) Youakim cleared the field when she announced her candidacy in December 2013 on the heels of Simon’s announcement. Her early entrance kept the endorsement from ever becoming interesting. She will run all over Republican nominee Brian Bjornson without difficulty in November. Interesting fact about Brian Bjornson: He actually filed the CFB Pre-General Election financial report, and it showed him raising zero dollars, having zero expenses, and zero debts. Give credit to him for following campaign finance law to the T.
House A
Obama (D) 64-34
Paulsen (R) 52-48 (20%)
Ellison (D) 68-32 (80%)
Winkler (D) 66-34
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 66-32
Ellison (D) 67-33
Simon (D) 70-30
Safe D (Safe D)
District 47: (Does anyone else get annoyed having to jump back and forth across the metro to follow the numbers numerically???) Republican vote sink in the SW exurbs. The DFL has exactly zero presence here. Ernie Leidiger (R) is retiring after two very rocky terms in St. Paul in 46A. Leidiger entered the legislature as a bit of a loose cannon in 2010, and it got worse from there. His business failed, he owes hundreds of thousands of dollars in back taxes, is getting his property foreclosed on, and his wife left him under shady circumstances. I don’t agree with Representative Leidiger on pretty much anything, but seeing someone’s life collapse on such a catastrophic level is not something I enjoy. I hope for his sake that he is able to get his life back in order soon, and being in office is not the place to do such things. His retirement opened up a Safely Republican seat however, and we had a Republican primary in August between anti-sodomy activist Bob Frey, and Waconia mayor Jim Nash. Frey garnered quite a bit of support from some of the fringier elements of the Tea Party, but only managed to take 40% of the vote against Nash, saving Republicans from that heartburn. Nash is still a very conservative man, and will be in the rightmost 10-20% of the legislature, but he is less likely to say things that pique the media’s attention than Frey would have been. Nash faces token Democratic Matt Gieseke in the General. Gieseke is 23, but looks all of 16. He actually posted an EMAIL between he and the CFB for his final report, because he screwed up the filing of it so badly. Not that it matters much, as his candidacy was never going anywhere (and didn’t). For the second cycle in a row, GOP Representative Joe Hoppe (R-47B) has no opponent of any type. He joins Tony Cornish as the only representatives to not face an opponent in 2012 or 2014.
House A
Romney (R) 63-35
Paulsen (R) 75-24 (15%)
Bachmann (R) 56-44 (85%)
Leidiger (R) 63-37
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Romney (R) 56-42
Paulsen (R) 65-35
Hoppe (R) 100% (Unopposed)
Safe R (Safe R)
District 48: The southern part of this district is fairly Republican Eden Prairie (This is Erik Paulsen’s stomping grounds), but the northern part is clearly center-left portions of Minnetonka that aren’t in 44B, as well as a slice of Eden Prairie. Freshman DFL Represnetative Yvonne Selcer unseated incumbent Republican Kirk Stensrud in one of the highest profile races in 2012. Stensrud is back for a rematch in 2014, and this will be one of is one of the most hotly contested, and expensive, races in the state yet again. The campaign has largely focused on school issues, with Stensrud advocating for decoupling school district decisions from the state DOE, and Selcer doing some chest thumping about paying back the schools that had their coffers robbed by the state during the Pawlenty administration. The Chamber of Commerce is playing heavily for Stensrud, and the best DFL operatives are in the district for Selcer. Popular former Minneapolis major R.T. Rybak is leading the ground game of Selcer, and has an army of volunteers and paid staffers that are knocking on every door in the district over the last 3 weeks of the campaign. To my knowledge, this is the only campaign that has that kind of ground presence, or anything close to it. Given Selcer’s money advantage, leftward trend of the area, and ground game advantage, I give her the edge, but expect this one to be close. In the more conservative 48B we have a right vs. center right primary before we get to November. Deputy Minority Leader Jennifer Loon (R) drew a primary opponent over her vote for legalizing same sex marriage last year. Loon is looking to be the ONLY survivor of the GOP primary process from the vote last year. She faced religious activist and housewife Sheila Kihne in the August primary, defeating her by a surprisingly lopsided 61-39 margin. Loon’s victory was really a thumb in the eye to those on the religious right that wanted to purge the party of all supporters of the legalization, and they got most of them out, but not Loon. With Kihne out of the race, it takes it entirely off the board, as Loon will handily defeat Joan Howe-Pullis, who was a major player for Minnesota United for All Families (the group that worked to defeat the constitutional amendment banning gay marriage in 2012). For what it’s worth, the amendment failed in the affluent suburban 48B by a 40-60 margin.
House A
Obama (D) 52-46
Paulsen (R) 57-43
Selcer (D) 50.34-49.52
Tilt D (Toss-up)
House B
Romney (R) 52-47
Paulsen (R) 63-37
Loon (R) 59-41
Safe R (Likely R)
District 49: Edina and west Bloomington. The western part of Bloomington is marginal, while the eastern part is quite blue. Edina used to be an affluent Republican stronghold, but has quickly become marginal, and even a tinge blue. 49A is represented by DFLer Ron Erhardt. Erhart is an elderly man at 84. For decades he was an Arne Carlson Republican in the legislature, but he was one of the first victims of the recent fad of Republicans primarying their own in 2008. He then switched parties to the Democrats with the standard “The party left me” mantra. He came back and won his old seat back as a Democrat in 2012 at age 83. Erhardt is in no danger of losing a general election in Edina, only a Republican primary apparently. Erhardt faces Republican restaurateur Dario Anselmo in November. Anselmo is best known for owning one of the mainstays of Uptown Minneapolis, which is hipster central. Erhardt is a legend in Edina, and has run a solid campaign, although Anselmo and his close family ties with Norm Coleman (Anselmo’s father is a judge) have kept is campaign flush with cash, keeping this from being 100% safe for Erhart, but I would be shocked in Anselmo pulled off the upset. 49B is about as politically even district as you are going to find anywhere. Paul Mazorol (R) won this seat in 2010, but when faced with a rematch against the man he edged out a cycle earlier, he opted to retire instead. This cleared the path for Paul Rosenthal to fairly easily return to St. Paul in his former district. Rosenthal is now running for reelection in 2014, and he faces Republican retired accountant Barb Sutter. Sutter is not from the area, or the state, and only moved here when her husband retired from the air force. While Republicans likely could have found a stronger candidate than Sutter, she has had a solid campaign presence, and has gone hard negative against Rosenthal. There seems to be backlash against how strongly she is going negative, but when you’re behind, you do anything and everything you can to make your opponent seem unpalatable.
House A
Obama (D) 52-47
Paulsen (R) 58-42 (70%)
Ellison (D) 55-45 (30%)
Erhardt (D) 56-44
Likely D (Likely D)
House B
Obama (D) 52-46
Paulsen (R) 56-44
Rosenthal (D) 53-47
Likely D (Likely D)
District 50: Eastern Bloomington and Richfield. I actually moved to this district in 2012. I would be surprised if Republicans came close to winning anything here in the foreseeable future. It is quite liberal. DFLer Linda Slocum in 50A is running for reelection against Republican Some Dude Dean Mumbleau, which is a formality. Likewise, fellow DFLer Ann Lenczewski is running against Republican Zabier Bicott who ran for Bloomington City Council in 2013, but that is just as much of a formality as Slocum’s race. Neither Bicott nor Mumbleau really have any campaign presence, or money in their campaign accounts.
House A
Obama (D) 64-34
Barnes (D) 54-46 (45%)
Ellison (D) 66-33 (55%)
Slocum (D) 62-30
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 57-41
Paulsen (R) 51-49
Lenczewski (D) 65-35
Safe D (Safe D)
District 51: Burnsville and Eagan. This is really swingy territory in the south metro. It was swept by Republicans in 2010, and swept by Democrats in 2012. It is also home to MN-2 DFL candidate Mike Obermueller, himself one of the Democratic victims in 2010. Representative Sandra Masin (DFL), won her rematch with Diane Anderson (R) in 2012. Anderson has opted not to go for a best of 3 in 2014. Instead, Republicans had a primary to decide their candidate, as neither Andrea Todd-Harlin nor Victor Lake were about to get the 60% threshold for the endorsement at the caucus. Todd-Harlin was the more traditional Republican candidate, while Lake was the very untraditional candidate, as he is a 27 year old immigrant from Uzbekistan (cue Herman Cain joke here). Lake actually led the endorsement convention as the grassroots candidate, but failed to defeat Todd-Harlin in the August primary, falling 44-56. This is sure to be a tightly contested general election with the marginal and elastic nature of the area. I give the edge to the incumbent, as the district is bluer than the state as a whole, even voting against incumbent GOP Congressman John Kline. In the slightly redder 51B, incumbent freshman Laurie Halverson is trying to win her first reelection campaign after unseating GOP incumbent Doug Wardlow in 2012. Representative Halverson is facing off against paralegal Jen Wilson (R) in November. Halverson has shown to be very much a pro-business New Democrat, and the CoC is sitting on their hands against her (she voted against creating MNSure exchange, the only DFLer to do so.) This is as swingy of a district as you’re going to find, but Wilson has not been able to effectively make a case against Halverson. Meanwhile Halverson has been a very quiet worker bee. I give the narrowest edge to Halverson based on her moderate image and incumbency, but expect it to be close.
House A
Obama (D) 55-42
Obermueller (D) 52-48
Masin (D) 55-44
Lean D (Lean D)
House B
Obama (D) 51-47
Kline (R) 50.16-49.73
Halverson (D) 52-48
Tilt D (Lean D)
District 52: This is the liberal parts of northern Dakota County that was added to Kline’s district in the 2012 redistricting, moving the needle leftward on its PVI. The Republicans have a small presence at the southern fringe of this district in the southern part of 52B, but this is DFL territory. This district is a lot like District 50, which lies to the northwest. Republican Joe Blum is looking for a rematch against 10-year incumbent DFL Representative Rick Hansen. Unlikely to be any closer than the 25 point margin it was in 2012. First elected in 2002, Joe Atkins (DFL) has been one of the more conservative members of the caucus relative to his district. The members of his party to his right hail from MUCH redder, generally rural districts. He has not been challenged in a primary during his 12 year tenure though, and remains quite popular in his district. I have no problem with him personally, but I know some of my more liberal compatriots grumble about him when he comes up in conversation. Nevertheless his constituents love him, and he overperforms other Democrats in the area. He does face a Republican in Don Lee this fall, but Mr. Lee seems to be running as a hardline, red meat conservative, and hasn’t gained much traction or money. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Atkins north of 70% this cycle.
House A
Obama (D) 59-39
Obermueller (D) 59-41
Hansen (D) 62-37
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 53-45
Kline (R) 50.04-49.78
Atkins (D) 66-34
Safe D (Safe D)
District 53: Western Woodbury and Maplewood. Maplewood is a very awkwardly shaped city, and the part of it in district 53 is the SW tendril. Maplewood is quite DFL, and Woodbury is slightly Republican leaning. DFL Representative Joanne Ward won her first election for the open 53A seat in 2012, and has now drawn Republican Lukas Czech as a dance partner in 2014. Czech suffered major spinal cord damage during an industrial accident a while back, and is completely wheelchair bound. He has no political experience to speak of, but is running on his personal story of struggle and recovery. Feel good political stories are always nice, but this is a hard district for a Republican to be winning in though, especially a political newbie. 53B is home of Andrea Kieffer, who gained notoriety as voting with the DFL to legalize same-sex marriage in Minnesota in 2013. Kieffer saw the writing on the wall when anti same-sex marriage advocates started gunning for the heads of the GOP defectors, and chose to retire. In her stead, the Republicans nominated Kelly Fenton. Fenton spent most of her career as a teacher and school official in Texas. She has political connections from her time as campaign manager for Ted Lillie (R) in his winning campaign in 2010, and his losing campaign in 2012. Fenton is going to be a slight favorite against the DFL candidate Kay Hendrickson, a member of the Woodbury Planning Commission, and adjunct professor of Healthcare Management. Hendrickson seems like a candidate with a decent resume, but has lagged slightly behind Fenton this cycle. I expect a mid-single digit victory for Fenton in her first run for political office.
House A
Obama (D) 56-41
McCollum (D) 57-36
Ward (D) 56-44
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Romney (R) 52-47
McCollum (D) 47.59-47.28
Kieffer (R) 55-45
Likely R (Lean R)
District 54: This is another one of the districts where the House seats are very different from one another. 54A is quite decisively DFL friendly and centered around eastern Cottage Grove, and South St Paul (a suburb, not a neighborhood of St. Paul proper). Freshman Dan Schoen (DFL) won this redrawn district in 2012 when it was open, and now faces Republican Matt Kowalski in his first reelection effort. Kowalski is a golfing supply store worker, and not really a familiar name with politicos around Minnesota (or the grocery store owners, as they are unrelated). Schoen will defeat the inexperienced and unfunded Kowalski handily. 54B is swingy, but marginally Republican upballot. Representing there is a 12-year incumbent Republican Denny McNamara there. McNamara is well known, and popular. He is safe against token Democrat Donald Slaten. Democrats would make a serious play at 54B if it were open, as this is Senator Katie Sieben’s (DFL) home turf, but McNamara is bulletproof there.
House A
Obama (D) 56-42
Obermueller (D) 54-46 (90%)
McCollum (D) 58-32 (10%)
Schoen (D) 55-38-7 (Independence Party)
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 49.15-48.57
Kline (R) 53-46 (90%)
McCollum (D) 51-43 (10%)
McNamara (R) 57-42
Safe R
District 55: Scott County. This is mostly Republican territory, but there are some purple dots starting to show up in places like Shakopee (which is most of 55A). 55A Representative Mike Beard (R) is calling it quits after 6 terms in St. Paul. 55A is interesting as it was one of only a couple House districts in the state to have both a D and an R primary. This is mostly red turf in Scott County. On the GOP side, there was a very contentious convention, with homeschooling activist and general cultural warrior Mike Mackenthun getting the official endorsement. Unlike most endorsed candidates, a lot of members of the party sat on their hands instead of giving him the ceremonial endorsement usually afforded to officially endorsed candidates. Against Mckenthun was Shakopee school board member Bob Loonan. Loonan was one of only two politicians (Jim Hagedorn: MN-1) in Minnesota this year to defeat an officially endorsed candidate in the primary, winning by the skin of his teeth by 17 votes. Initially Loonan was seen as a far superior candidate to Mackenthun, which didn’t look like good news for Democrats, who had gotten their golden candidate in Shakopee city councilman Jay Whiting. Whiting himself had a token primary against Some Dude Ronald Gray. Whiting won 83-17. Loonan has laid an egg on the campaign trail, having all but disappeared from the face of the planet since the primary. Whiting meanwhile has run a decent campaign, and even garnered the endorsement of the Star Tribune, Minnesota’s largest newspaper. I still have Loonan winning, but if you’re looking for an off-the-radar upset, this is as good of a place to look as any. 55B looks to be a lot less interesting than 55A. Tony Albright may only be a freshman, but he seems to be settling nicely into incumbency in his cozy Republican district. He does face Democratic businessman Kevin Burkart. The IP has a candidate on the ballot, but has officially suspend his campaign. Those two combined won’t keep Albright from hitting 60%+. Though it should be noted that Albright has not been campaigning or fundraising, and has allowed Burkhart to outraise him nearly 2:1. It won’t matter here, but it shows that Albright is lazy, and may be an underperformer moving forward.
House A
Romney (R) 52-46
Kline (R) 58-42
Beard (R) 55-45
Lean R (Likely R)
House B
Romney (R) 60-38
Kline (R) 65-35
Albright (R) 63-36
Safe R (Safe R)
District 56: Swingy Burnsville to the east (56B) and marginally Republican Savage to the west (56A) 56A is currently represented by Pam Myhra, who is is retiring, and was Marty Seifert’s running mate in the GOP primary for governor, which was ultimately won by Jeff Johnson. With Myhra’s departure we end up with an interesting situation in this 51% Romney district, with the Republican banner being carried by 21 year old University of Minnesota student Drew Christiansen. Christiansen is a young upstart ideologue that for reasons completely unbeknownst to me was given a free shot at the GOP slot in this GOP held district. On the DFL side, 62year-old former Lockport Township (Illinois) schoolboard member, and 2002 candidate for this seat Dan Kimmel is running. Kimmel has gotten the Star Tribune endorsement against Christiansen, but neither candidate has raised much money. Perhaps the R next to Christiansen’s name will carry him across the finish line, but it puts a district into jeopardy that didn’t have to be risked by the GOP. 56B is a close race, as it often is. Democrat Will Morgan won an incredibly tight race against Republican Roz Peterson , winning by 170 votes. Peterson is once again running against Morgan, and without the 2012 tailwind, the conditions may be right for Peterson to win the rematch in this marginal seat that Obama carried by 66 votes. Still, Morgan is 3-1 in elections to this district, winning in 06 08 and 12, with a loss in 10 (to the aforementioned Pam Myhra pre-redistricting). Democrats are seemingly doing quite well in the suburbs, the southern metro has been trending D in recent years, and I expect the upballot DFL ticket to outperform Obama by a couple percent here, which is the opposite of my thinking a few months ago. Gun to my head, I think Morgan wins, but this is a 50.1-49.9 race all the way.
House A
Romney (R) 51-47
Kline (R) 57-43
Beard (R) 54-46
Tilt R (Likely R)
House B
Obama (D) 49.07-48.78
Kline (R) 55-45
Morgan (D) 50.32-49.52
Tilt D (Lean R)
District 57: Rosemount and Apple Valley. This is swingy area around Rosemount, and solidly Republican area around Apple Valley, and the DFL is not investing top staff here, nor did they recruit top recruits. Democrats actually won this senate district when Greg Clausen defeated Pat Hall, brother of next door district 56 Senator Dan Hall, so Demorats can win here. Tara Mack, at the ripe old age of 31 is already looking at her 4rd term in the lower chamber. Mack has proven to be a strong incumbent in her swingy Rosemount based district. Representative Mack has avoided any serious challenger, and faces Some Dude Bruce Folken. In the more conservative Apple Valley based 57B, freshman Anna Wills appears to be well positioned to get a second term against Democrat Denise Packard, and has banked much of her warchest for a potentially stronger challenge in 2016.
House A
Obama (D) 51-47
Kline (R) 53-47
Mack (R) 53-46
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Obama (D) 49.07-48.78
Kline (R) 55-45
Morgan (D) 50.32-49.52
Safe R (Lean R)
District 58: Lakeville and southern Dakota County. In the conservative Lakeville based 58A we have an open seat due to Liz Holberg’s (R) retirement. Holberg was generally seen as a bit of a gadfly, a grandmotherly figure that was prone to off-kilter comments. Her latest political move came as a shock to most, as she is retiring from the Minnesota legislature in a safe seat to run for County Commissioner in Dakota County, a huge demotion. The race to replace her was developing into quite the event, as former Lakeville City Council candidate David Bares was running against Lakeville businessman Jon Koznick, but at the convention Koznick won on the first ballot, and Bares bowed out and endorsed Koznick. The Democrats are running Amy Willingham against him. Willingham has no previous political experience and is running a single issue campaign for school funding. Regardless, this district is quite red, and Koznick will win. This is a place where I never would have expected a Republican to stick his neck out in favor of gay marriage, and especially not one that I expected to survive politically, but that is exactly what we have here with Pat Garofalo. Garofalo’s vote was the biggest surprise once the votes were tallied, by a wide margin. Moreover, Garofalo never even considered retirement. And unlike the other apostates in the GOP caucus, he didn’t even get a primary challenge at all. It was a very odd series of events. In the end though, Garofalo is going to win another term in the legislature, in spite of his NBA related tweets.
House A
Romney (R) 56-42
Kline (R) 62-38
Holberg (R) 59-41
Safe R (Safe R)
House B
Romney (R) 56-42
Kline (R) 60-40
Garofalo (R) 59-40
Safe R (Safe R)
Districts 59-63. These seats are all Minneapolis, and all are going to go 70-30 DFL+. I will keep the segments brief unless there is something important involving the DFL primary
District 59: This is the north side of Minneapolis, home of Keith Ellison, and the closest thing to a majority Minority district you can get in the state. 59A incumbent Joe Mullery and Raymond Dehn are running for reelection.
House A
Obama (D) 84-14
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 80-17
Safe D (Safe D)
District 60: This district covers Northeast Minneapolis the U of M campus (and its 51,000 students), and a small sliver into Cedar-Riverside, and it’s large Somali community. 60A is uninteresting with Diane Loeffler running again. 60B however has seen some of the worst fireworks of the entire election cycle. It started with the precinct caucuses where supporters of Minneapolis School Board Member Mohamud Noor tried to hijack the precinct caucuses away from the district’s DFL board members, going so far as becoming violent, with supporters of 42-year incumbent Phyllis Kahn and supporters of Noor assaulting eachother (the precinct in question is nearly universally Somali). The caucuses draw almost no interest from the University of Minnesota students that comprise the rest of the district outside of that precinct on the other side of the river. Essentially it was an attempted Coup to oust Kahn. Eventually the police allowed the caucus take place weeks later, and ended in a draw. Noor’s supporters wanted the endorsement given to him at the caucus, as Kahn would be harder to defeat in a primary where more college students would vote (the vast majority of the population are actually on the U of M side of the district, but almost no one caucuses). Kahn ended up prevailing 54-46 in the primary, which was a wider margin than many observers had expected. It is a safely Democratic district in November for Kahn (and would have been for Noor), but this has been a big black eye on the DFL locally.
House A
Obama (D) 77-19
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 76-19
Safe D (Safe D)
District 61: This is Southwest Minneapolis, which is the most affluent area in the city. Minneapolis is known as the City of Lakes, and this district holds more than its fair share, and the homes on the lakes are rather palatial. This doesn’t mean they are any more conservative than the poorer parts of the city, as this is as Democratic as the poverty stricken 59th district. Representative Frank Hornstein is running for reelection as is Speaker Paul Thissen.
House A
Obama (D) 78-19
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 78-20
Safe D (Safe D)
District 62: This is a combination of Hipsters on the western side of the district, diverse areas in the center and south, and college students on the Northern edge. This is the most Democratic, most liberal, and most politically homogenous district in the entire state. Representative Karen Clark is running for her 17th term in 62A. as is Susan Allen in 62B
House A
Obama (D) 86-9
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 87-10
Safe D (Safe D)
District 63: This is South Minneapolis, running from Downtown to the Airport. Incumbents Jim Davnie (63A), and Jean Wagenius (63B) are all returning for more time in St. Paul.
House A
Obama (D) 83-14
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 74-24
Safe D (Safe D)
Districts 64-67: This is essentially St. Paul. Again, much like in Minneapolis, all of these seats are 100% Safe DFL, and will be won by blowout margins.
District 64: This is what is known as the West Side of St. Paul. It has many different pockets of different groups, far too many to try and mention here. Incumbent Erin Murphy (64A) is running again. Michael Paymar (64B) however is retiring, which triggered a flood of prospective candidates. Long story short Dave Pinto won the endorsement, and everyone else fell in line and dropped out.
House A
Obama (D) 77-20
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 70-27
Safe D (Safe D)
District 65: This is Downtown St. Paul, and some surrounding areas. Representatives Rena Moran (65A) and Carlos Mariani (65B) are running again.
House A
Obama (D) 83-14
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 77-20
Safe D (Safe D)
District 66: This is the northern edge of St. Paul, and includes the State Fair Grounds, and a tiny sliver of Roseville to balance population. Alice Hausman (66A) and John Lesch (66B) will be reelected to their House seats easily.
House A
Obama (D) 66-32
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 79-19
Safe D (Safe D)
District 67: This is the eastern part of St. Paul. Tim Mahoney and Sheldon Johnson have represented eastern St. Paul since the 1990s, and both are running for another term this year.
House A
Obama (D) 76-22
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 74-23
Safe D (Safe D)