The second half of my biannual series on the Minnesota legislative elections. The first half of which can be viewed at www.dailykos.com/...
District 29: Centered in some of the western exurbs centered around Buffalo in blood red Wright County. Freshman Republican Senator Bruce Anderson, is running against Democrat Some Dude PJ LaCroix. 3 term incumbent Representative Joe McDonald (R) and sophomore Marion O’Neil also face off against no name Democrats, Courtney Phillips and Steve Kilburn respectively. All 3 will win easily.
Senate Safe R
House A Romney (R) 60-38 McFadden (R) 57-39
Safe R
House B Romney (R) 57-40 McFadden (R) 54-41
Safe R
District 30: Much like district 29, but even more Republican and centered around St. Michael/Albertville and Elk River. Freshman Senator Mary Kiffmeyer (R), the former Minnesota Secretary of State is running for her first reelection. Sophomore GOP Rep Nick Zerwas easily won his first two races for the state legislature in 2012 and 2014, and is a shoo-in for a third against DFL social worker Sarah Hamlin. Firebrand conservative Representative Eric Lucero, who originally entered politics because the then GOP Representative in this district voted for the gay marriage bill in 2013, is running for his first reelection in 30B against Some Dude(tte) Margaret Fernandez. Lucero will easily beat her 2:1.
Senate Safe R
House A Romney (R) 58-39 McFadden (R) 56-40
Safe R
House 26B Romney (R) 62-36 McFadden (R) 60-36
Safe R
District 31: This is the part of Anoka County that makes Anoka County Republican. The rest of the county is actually pretty marginal, but this area is blood red exurbs. Senator Michelle Benson (R) is running against DFL Some Dude metalworker Ricky Englund. Benson is safe. 31A is home to Speaker Kurt Daudt (R). A movie could have a movie made about his political career. Following his incident in Montana where his gun was drawn on a seller he found on Craigslist, Daudt, and Daudt’s friend were in the midst of a cash deal gone bad over a Ford Bronco. Obviously the friend fell on the sword to clear Daudt of any wrongdoing. After this incident, he was promptly unopposed in his 2014 primary, and 2014 general election, and was promptly elected Speaker by the new GOP majority. Then during the 2015 legislative session, Daudt received massive amounts of flak for making deals with Senator Majority Leader Tom Bakk (DFL) to run through bills and a budget over the objections of Mark Dayton, who was deliberately left out of the Daudt/Bakk meetings. Because of the appearance of being in cahoots with Bakk, there was a large amount of discontent in his ranks, and a primary challenger emerged in conservative activist Alan Duff. Daudt fared better than the other incumbents that faced primary challengers on their flanks, but I suspect Daudt will be drummed out of leadership if Republicans lose the chamber in November. Daudt himself is not in danger in the general election against political newcomer Sarah Udvig On the other side of the district, we have one of the incumbents that didn’t fare so well against the flank challenger. 10-term incumbent Tom Hackbarth lost the GOP endorsement, went forward with the primary challenge anyways, and lost to Cal Bahr. Bahr ran against Hackbarth in both 2014 and 2012, losing the endorsement and dropping out. 3rd time’s the charm though, and Bahr will be the next State Representative from 31B after he inevitably beats DFLer Susan Larson in November.
Senate Safe R
House A Romney (R) 62-35 McFadden (R) 56-40
Safe R
House B Romney (R) 59-38 McFadden (R) 58-39
Safe R
District 32: This is Chisago and Isanti Counties, which up until fairly recently was winnable for Democrats, and as recently as 2010 had DFL representation in these seats. However those two counties became one of the Republican epicenters of the state. State Senator Sean Nienow, much like Tom Hackbarth in the adjacent House district 31B, lost the endorsement in the spring convention to a more pure blood conservative, proceeded to the primary anyways, and lost. Rich banker Mark Koran will almost certain be the next senator from SD 32 after he faces lawyer Tim Nelson in November. Had this been a decade ago, Nelson may have had a shot, as he has deep connections to the district, while Mark Koran is a recent transplant to the area after earning his fortune in St. Paul, only moving to the area in retirement. But it isn’t a decade ago, So Koran will be the next senator here. In 32A, which is more or less Cambridge and unpopulated areas in Isanti and western Chisago Counties, we have a rematch of 2012 and 2014. GOP Representative Brian Johnson, a former police officer, faces off once more against Paul Gammel, a fellow police officer himself. I don’t see this race going any differently than the last two times, with a solid mid-to-upper single digit Johnson victory all but assured. I had a big spiel written about 32B, but it turns out that Bob Barrett, the GOP nominee, is ineligible as he doesn’t live in the district. So the November votes are meaningless. A February special election will take place.
Senate Safe R
House A Romney (R) 57-41 McFadden (R) 51-44
Safe R
House B Romney (R) 55-43 McFadden (R) 52-44
Safe VACANT
District 33: Money Money Money Money. This includes the wealthiest areas of the entire state around Lake Minnetonka, plus exurbs not around the lake. The exceedingly wealthy in Minnesota lean Republican but not to the same level they do in other states, and the exurbanites in district 33B are as conservative as the ones in 29 and 30. I am curious to see how this district reacts to Trump. This district actually saw more than its fair share of insurgent Tea Party type candidates unseating incumbents in 2012 in their primaries. One of the primary victors from 2012 is Senator David Osmek, who is running against businesswoman Sherrie Pugh, who is black in a district that is probably in excess of 99% white. Also the Libertarian Party makes a rare appearance in this district with Jay Nygard. Nygard made news by choosing to go to jail rather than dismantle his illegal wind turbine on his property. His name was in the news earlier this year, and his status as a bit of a property rights iconoclast may get him a couple percentage points. The presence of a high name rec Libertarian, and potential for Trump fallout in this particular area of MN-3 keeps me from calling in 100% Safe. Freshman Jerry Hertaus in 33A represents all of the blood red sparsely populated areas on the western edge of Hennepin County. Hertaus will be facing against self-made wealthy Pharmacist Professor, and businesswoman Norrie Thomas. Thomas has a strong profile, but a 62% Romney district is too tough of a row to hoe for her, e ven with an anticipated drop of the margins at the top of the ticket. Hertaus is safe. In 33B, there is perhaps the second biggest Republican bomb thrower in. the state legislature (behind Mary Franson) in Cindy Pugh. Pugh, who is white and not related to the DFL Senate candidate, was one of the Tea Party candidates mentioned above, and she has not shied away from stirring the pot with some comments one might have expected based on how her initial 2012 campaign went. Pugh faces college professor Brad Brothen. Brothen is not as strong of a candidate as Norrie Thomas, but this district is a lot bluer, and Pugh is a lot more of a lightning rod. Pugh is a strong favorite, but this race could swing late.
Senate Likely R
House A Romney (R) 62-36 McFadden (R) 61-36
Safe R
House B Romney (R) 55-44 McFadden (R) 54-43
Likely R
District 34: Maple Grove. In terms of raw vote totals, Maple Grove is one of the places Republicans need to run up the margins to be competitive statewide, though the GOP margins have begun to dwindle as the city is no longer expanding. 21 year incumbent GOP Senator Warren Limmer is running for another term, and will take it handily over DFL lawyer Bonnie Westlin. After over a decade of smooth reelection efforts, Republican Joyce Peppin (34A) is running against Dave Craig, not to be confused with the Wisconsin State Representative, and not related to MN-2 DFL candidate Angie Craig. This Dave Craig doesn’t have the profile or political strength of the other Craigs, and will lose to Peppin handily. Incumbent Republican Dennis Smith (R), Former Speaker Kurt Zellers’ handpicked successor in this seat is running for his first reelection against businesswoman Kristin Bahner in 34B. This race hasn’t gotten much attention as I figured it would consider it was 51% Romney and 51% McFadden. But with neither side making much noise here, I am gonna keep it at Likely R
Senate Safe R
House A Romney (R) 58-40 McFadden (R) 57-40
Safe R
House B Romney (R) 51-47 McFadden (R) 51-46
Likely R
District 35: This is the district straddling the Mississippi River in central Anoka County including Anoka and Coon Rapids. It has long had a quirky libertarian streak to it, and was the strongest area for Jesse Ventura in 98. Libertarianish Republican Jim Abeler won the seat over a more mainstream Republican primary opponent in a special election earlier this following the mid-term retirement of Senator Brenden Petersen. Abeler fits this quirky district like a glove and will hold it until Kingdom Come if he wants. The A side of 35 is home to young up and comer GOP Representative Abigail Whelan. Whelan has been in politics for a long time in spite of being in her 20s, and she may be looking for a promotion in the coming years as holding her seat cycle in and cycle out may prove problematic against a strong headwind if one develops. Whelan faces DFL small businessman Andy Hillbregt. I don’t see Hillbregt having the tailwind or political chops to make it this cycle, though with an untested freshman in a swing district, it isn’t off the table. On the B side the race appears to be far less interesting, as the district is substantially more Republican, and Peggy Scott (R-Andover) is easily expected to win her 5th term in St. Paul. Expect her to romp over local DFL chairman Wes Volkenant.
Senate Safe R
House A Romney (R) 52-45 McFadden (R) 51-45
Likely R
House B Romney (R) 57-41 McFadden (R) 56-41
Safe R
District 36: This is moderate to DFL area along the Mississippi river in the NW suburbs, with B being slightly more Democratic than A. Freshman DFL Senator John Hoffman unseated the incumbent 1-term GOP Senator in this seat back in 2012. Republicans have nominated Brooklyn Park Mayor Jeff Lunde. Lunde has been a center to center left Republican mayor of the blue city Jesse Venture once was mayor of (100% serious). This is an area that Trump will absolutely plummet in, and I give the edge of incumbency to Hoffman, but expect this race to be close, provided Lunde can shore up his right flank. In 2012, Republicans got THE candidate in 2012 in the form of Mark Uglem, the then sitting mayor of Champlain Park, to run in 36A. Uglem managed to win a tightly contested race against DFLer Grace Baltich. Uglem showed his ability to run ahead of the top of the ticket in 2014, and he didn’t draw a serious challenger in 2016. Uglem will face off against DFL youngster college student Kevin Parker. Uglem should win easily in this swingy seat. 10-year incumbent DFL Representative Melissa Hortman is a perennial target of the GOP, but she seems to be remarkably consistent in her reelection victories, getting 51-55% against strong GOP opposition. This cycle will be no different, as the Republicans are once again gunning for her with former Brooklyn Park City Councilman Peter Crema, her 2014 opponent. Hortman won by 4 in the red wave election of 2014, and there appears to be no such headwind this year, so expect her to improve upon her margin a bit. As always, Hortman can’t be considered safe in a center-left district against a strong Republican, but we’ve been down this road before, repeatedly.
Senate Lean D
House A Romney (R) 49-48 McFadden (R) 48.45-47-49
Likely R
House B Obama (D) 53-45 Franken (D) 52-44
Likely D
District 37: Blaine and Spring Lake Park, with a sliver of Coon Rapids. Blaine leans ever so slightly Republican now, but it used to be a DFL stronghold and is close to 50/50, while Spring Lake Park and Coon Rapids are center-left suburbs that swing violently with the tide. This district is also one of the strongest IP areas in the entire state, and was integral to Jesse Ventura’s victory in 1998, much like the adjacent district 35. Senator Alice Johnson, who served 1 term in the upper chamber after 14 years in the House is choosing to retire at age 75. That clears the road for 79 year old DFL Representative to go for a promotion. Newton faces local Chamber of Commerce Chair Brad Sanford. It isn’t such a blue district where Newton is a shoo-in, but he is strongly favored. I think 79 would be by far the oldest freshman Senator in my time following politics in Minnesota. With Newton going for a promotion, that leaves his House seat open in 37A. the DFL has nominated DFL staffer Erin Koegel. Republicans have nominated small businessman Anthony Wilder. As near as I can tell Republicans have punted in this district entirely as Wilder seems to not raise any money, or even have a campaign site. The Libertarians are playing here as well with Brian McCormick, who is running an unabashedly pro-drug campaign, decriminalizing all drugs. With Republicans triaging this seat, I have it at Likely D, as it isn’t THAT blue, but Koegel may be one of the weakest DFL freshman next cycle. In the more Republican 37B, Tim Sanders had a strong 32 year-old career and is stepping aside this cycle after surviving attacks from the right. This race was shaping up to be a close race for an open seat, but GOP nominee Nolan West was forced to resign from his position as a GOP staffer because of a number of super racist Facebook posts, including “It’s lynching time” in response to Obama winning election. The Republican establishment is throwing him to the wolves, and absolutely no one is coming to his defense; he looks to be triaged immediately. With this irreparable damage to West and Republicans only 6 weeks out from the election, this puts this seat as a firm DFL pickup now. The new Representative is likely to be retired teacher and local DFL operative Susan Witt.
Senate Lean D
House A Obama (D) 53-44 Franken (D) 53-43
Likely D
House B Romney (R) 49-48 McFadden (R) 50-47
Likely D
District 38: This district includes red exurbs and in the NW metro from Lino Lakes to Hugo, with 38B having some affluent purple/bluish suburbs thrown in. This is fairly sparsely populated space with bespeckled with McMansion housing developments. 2nd term Republican incumbent Senator Roger Chamgerlin looks to win his 3rd term against technology consultant Pat Davern. 28-year GOP incumbent Linda Runbeck is running for a 15th term in 38A. She is a prohibitive favorite against DFL sacrificial lamb Kevin Fogarty. Former Majority Leader Matt Dean represents the eastern half 38B. I was sort of surprised he even bothered to run for reelection after he was unceremoniously omitted from leadership last cycle. He was part of the internal GOP purge that ultimately ended with 2010 product Kurt Daudt ending up as Republican leader. But even if his own party pushed him aside, he is running for a 7th term, and his constituents will likely reelect him against DFL neophyte Ami Wazawik.
Senate Safe R
House A Romney (R) 54-44 McFadden (R) 52-45
Safe R
House B Romney (R) 52-46 McFadden (R) 52-45
Safe R
District 39: Eastern Washington County. The Southern half (39B) is dominated by purple Stillwater, with the northern half (39A) of the district dominated by Red Forest Lake. Incumbent Republican freshman Senator Karin Housley had a highly contested first election in 2012, and looks like she is getting off easier this cycle, with Democrats only able to muster a no name attorney, Sten Hakanson to run against her. I expect Housley to win farily easily, though with it being a marginal district, it isn’t a 100% lock. In 39A, the Forest Lake district, 5-term GOP Representative Bob Dettmer is poised to win his 6th term in St. Paul against probation officer Democrat Jody Anderson, who is male. Dettmer is quite popular in his house district, and over performs pretty much every other Republican in the area. In the Stillwater-based district, Republican Kathy Lohmer (R) who was swept into office in 2010 is running for her 4th term. Democrats recruited Maplewood City Attorney Alan Kantrud to run against her. Lohmer has proven to be quite the adept campaigner, but Democrats are going for the district, so it isn’t safe for her, though she is strongly favored in this purple district.
Senate Likely R
House A Romney (R) 53-45
McFadden (R) 52-45
Safe R
House B Romney (R) 50-48 Franken (D) 48.69-48.08
Likely R
District 40: Brooklyn Park. Other than Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Duluth, Brooklyn Park gives the DFL the highest net vote total out of any city in the state, which as mentioned above, actually has a center-left Republican mayor. This seat is going to be super boring for pretty much everyting this year. Senator Chris Eaton won his special election in 2011 and has won easily ever since. She will easily dispatch of her GOP opponent Robert Marvin. 40A incumbent Mike Nelson didn’t draw an opponent this year, which also happened in 2012. Nelson was first elected in 2002, and hasn’t had a serious challenge to his tenure since. Like her western neighbor Nelson, 40B incumbent Deb Hilstrom is a long-term entrenched incumbent that is in no danger in her sapphire blue district after beating a token primary opponent in August. The Republican Party is putting up Mali Marvin, her 2014 opponent against Hilstrom again, so she is not officially unopposed, though she beat Marvin more than 2:1 in 2014, so it might as well be.
Senate Safe D
House A Obama (D) 70-29 Franken (D) 65-32
Safe D
House B Obama (D) 68-29 Franken (D) 65-31
Safe D
District 41: Columbia Heights, Fridley, and New Brighton. These are some quite blue inner ring suburbs you’re going to find. I graduated high school in this district after relocating to the area as a teenager. Incumbent DFL Senator Barb Goodwin is retiring for a second time. She first retired from the House in 2007, but came back to the political area in 2010 to replace disgraced corrupt State Senator Satveer Chaudhary. After 2 terms she is going back into retirement. Running to replace her is Representative Caroline Laine (D-41B), who is a prohibitive favorite against Republican Gary Johnson. Connie Bernardy (DFL-41A) won her return to political office under the new lines for 2012, as she had previously served in the House from 2001-2006. She will face Republican Some Dude Ruan Evanson in November. Bernardy is a sharp politician and this is a friendly district for her, so she is safe. The aforementioned Laine is leaving the bluer of the two districts, and will likely be replaced by fellow DFLer Mary Kunesh-Podein, the chairwoman of the New Brighton Parks and Rec Board. Kunesh-Podein will face 2014 GOP nominee Camden Pike, who garnered a whopping 29% against Laine that year.
Senate Safe D
House A Obama (D) 59-38 Franken (D) 58-38
Safe D
House B Obama (D) 62-35 Franken (D) 62-34
Safe D
District 42: This is northern Ramsey County: marginally DFL area in the north (~42A), and strong DFL area is the south (~42B). Freshman Senator Bev Scalze is retiring after just 4 years in office at age 72. Representative Jason Isaacson (D-42B) is running for her seat after 4 years in the lower chamber. Isaacson will face off against anti-abortion advocate Candy Sina in November. Neither party seems to be paying much attention to this district: likely writing off Sina in this 54% Obama (and trending blue) district. Even the Strib doesn’t list SD42 as a competitive race, which is surprising as they included nearly every district that is outside of Safe D or Safe R. I am not going to go on a limb and call an open D+2 district safe, but I see Isaacson as a prohibitive favorite. Incumbent HD42A Representative Dr. Barb Yarusso won her first shot at political office in 2012 and fended off a very strong challenge in 2014, winning by 220 votes against Randy Jessup. Jessup, who is running again this year was touted as a self-financer, but Yarusso had a lot of moneyed friends that financed her campaign well in 2012-2014, and have been doing so so again in 2016, outraising Jessup by a fair amount. This is one of the best Republican pick-up opportunities against in incumbent in the House, and the full court press is on. That being said, 2016 doesn’t seem to be the Republican wave 2014 turned out to be, which puts Yarusso in as good or better position than she was in in 2014. I give her the benefit of incumbency, but this will be a close one. In the open 57% Obama 42B, Democrats have gone with Assistant Hennepin County Attorney Jamie Becker-Finn, and Republicans have gone with realtor Tracy Nelson. No one else expects 42B to be competitive, and neither do I.
Senate Likely D
House A Obama (D) 51-46
Franken (D) 53-44
Tilt D
House B Obama (D) 57-41
Franken (D) 57-40
Likely D
District 43: This is a district made up of inner and second ring suburbs to the north and east of St. Paul. It is a lot like district next door district 42, insomuch as 43A in the north is DFL leaning, and 43B is strongly DFL. If anything, district 43 is slightly bluer than 42. All 3 DFL incumbents in this district are running reelection. 20-year incumbent Senator Chuck Wiger is running against Republican public access tv personality Bob Zick. Zick was last seen running for HD43B in 2012, losing the Republican primary 55-45 to Kevin Kline. Kline went on to lost the General Election 60:40. Wiger won his last reelection with 65% of the vote, and is safe this year. In 43A, Peter Fischer is running for his 3rd term against Republican challenger Bob Cardinal. In Cardinal is a former mayor of Maplewood, and has been plagued with scandals causing him to lose his mayor’s job, and then fail at retaking it. He got wrapped up in a bit of a scandal akin to the one we saw sweep through Pennsylvania with judges and porn and lewd jokes. I don’t think it’ll be a death blow to his chances, but he wasn’t going to have all that good of a chance in a D+4 seat anyways. 43B, 12-year incumbent DFL representative Leon Lillie is running for reelection, and is all but assured another term in the bluer of these two House districts. Lillie faces attorney and blogger Nathan Hansen. If you really want a trip, check out @nathanmhansen on twitter and see all the crazy conspiracy theories (like Hillary Clinton having a body double) he posts. Lillie will absolutely destroy this guy in November.
Senate Safe D
House A Obama (D) 56-42
Franken (D) 55-41
Likely D
House B Obama (D) 57-40
Franken (D) 56-40
Safe D
District 44: Rich suburbs but not really exurbs. Plymouth used to be a Republican stronghold, but has begun to show signs of leftward movement. While Minnetonka is a pretty DFL city, and moving further that direction steadily after formerly resembling Plymouth politically. Lots of action going on here, with the announcement that Terri Bonoff would finally be challenging Erik Paulsen, leaving her senate seat open to do so. Democrats have rallied behind Minnetonka Planning Commissioner Deb Calvert, a former high level staffer for Amy Klobuchar. Republicans have lined up behind former Pawlenty Deputy Chief of Staff Paul Anderson (not to be confused with the 12B Represntative). Both sides are dumping huge resources and effort into this district, as both see it as vital to control of the chamber in January. Expect this one to go down to the wire. With the general trends in the area, and expectation that Trump will do poorly in this highly educated affluent suburban district, and the fact that Obama and Franken both carried it, I give a 50.01% chance that the DFL keeps it. 44A is the more Republican part of this district, and includes most of the city of Plymouth and is represented by Sarah Anderson (R) Sarah Anderson, at only 42 years old, may have a future in higher office down the road and would be a solid candidate to replace Paulsen if he chooses to run for higher office. A loss however may doom any prospects for advancement politically for her. I had given her a Safe R ranking in 2012, and to my surprise the race was quite a bit closer than I anticipated against a nobody Democrat. This caused me to take a look into Plymouth’s election results, and it appears as though the city has hit the inflection point that Minnetonka hit in 2004, and Edina hit in 2008, where the population no longer expands, and the Republican strength in the city decreases. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out, as if Plymouth starts voting like Minnetonka, Paulsen’s replacement will have a tough time getting elected as a Republican in MN-3. Representative Anderson faces off again against Businesswoman Ginn Klevorn. With Anderson doing better in 2014 than 2012, as almost all Republicans did, I am not going to give this a Tilt or Lean ranking, but Anderson isn’t safe, particularly if the presidential turnout trend continues this cycle, or if Trump has an effect in this distrct. In 44B, incumbent freshman DFLer Jon Applebaum continues to impress with his stellar fundraising and campaign chops at only 31 years old. Much like Anderson, Applebaum could have a future in higher officedown the road if he can maintain his purple House district. In one of the most high profile and expensive races in 2014, Applebaum defeated Republican Ryan Rutzick, while raising more money than any other legislative candidate in the entire state in an open seat. Initially Republicans had made waves about taking out Applebaum, but strong candidates were scared away, and recruitment failed. Ultimately retired insurance agent Patti Meier became the nominee. She has not been keeping up the torrid pace that Rutzick did last cycle, and I suspect that Applebaum will improve upon his 51-48 margin last cycle, perhaps significantly.
Senate Tilt D
House A Romney (R) 51-48
McFadden (R) 50-47
Likely R
House B Obama (D) 54-44
Franken (D) 55-43
Likely D
District 45: Cystal, New Hope and Golden Valley. My home! I bought a house in Golden Valley in 2015, so 2016 is the first general election in my new locale. Crystal and New Hope are more working class inner suburbs, while Golden Valley is more middle class to upper middle class and home to General Mills. Senator Ann Rest (DFL) has been in office since 2000, and looks to defeat conservative activist Roxana Bruins to continue that streak. Representative Lyndon Carlson has won here without campaigning every biennium since 1972. Carlson is 76 years old, is the co-Dean of the House (along with Phyllis Kahn, who was defeated in her primary), and will be carried out of the Capital feet first. Republicans put up charter school advocate Richard Lieberman against Johnson for the second time in as many cycles, but it will be 60-40 Johnson, as it seems to be about those numbers every cycle for him. In 45B, Mike Freiberg (DFL-Golden Valley) won his seat for life in 2012. I actually live just down the street from him and he came and knocked on my door and chatted for a while, and for the first time in my life have a yard sign in my yard for him. Not that he needs it, as he will win easily. He faces Republican Alma Wetzker in November, a rematch of 2014. 45B is even bluer than 45A, so the race is effectively moot.
Senate Safe D
House A Obama (D) 59-39
Franken (D) 58-38
Safe D
House B Obama (D) 63-34
Franken (D) 64-32
Safe D
District 46: St. Louis Park and Hopkins. St. Louis Park has a large liberal Jewish population (including the Franken family), and Hopkins is an aging center-left upper-middle-class suburb, similar to Golden Valley to the North. Outside of Minneapolis and St. Paul proper, this is probably the most liberal district in the state, though certainly not the most Democratic, electorally speaking. 10-year incumbent DFL Senator Ron Latz did not get a GOP challenger, and is running unopposed. 46A incumbent Representative Peggy Flanagan (DFL) is running against Republican teacher Anne Taylor. Flanagan “won a 2015 special election” where she was the only candidate of either party to enter, following the resignation of Ryan Winkler, who resigned his seat to move to Belgium for his wife’s work. In incumbent Secretary of State Steve Simon’s old seat 45B, freshman DFL Representative Cheryl Youakim is running against Bryan Bjornson in a 2014 rematch. Bjornson in 2014 filled out his final financial disclosure form to the campaign finance board showing zero dollars raised, zero dollars spent, and zero debt. That should show everyone how unserious this candidacy is.
Senate Safe D
House A Obama (D) 64-34
Franken (D) 65-32
Safe D
House B Obama (D) 66-32
Franken (D) 67-30
Safe D
District 47: (Does anyone else get annoyed having to jump back and forth across the metro to follow the numbers numerically???) Republican vote sink in the SW exurbs. The DFL has exactly zero presence here. Relatively moderate GOP Senator Julianne Ortman is retiring after holding this seat since 2002. Her replacement will be Dr. Scott Jenson, a medical family practitioner. Jenson defeated Jake Coleman at the endorsement convention in the spring, and Coleman dropped out then instead of moving forward to a primary. Jenson is expected to handily defeat DFL nominee Darryl Scarborough in the GE. GOP incumbent Jim Nash faces token Democratic opponent Sean White, an Army veteran. Nash will win easily. Unlike last cycle, GOP Representative Joe Hoppe (R-47B) is not running unopposed, officially. Democrat Some Dude(tte) Jane Montemayor is stepping up to the 14 year incumbent. She doesn’t have a chance, but she is running.
Senate Safe R
House A Romney (R) 63-35
McFadden (R) 59-37
Safe R
House B Romney (R) 56-42
McFadden (R) 52-46
Safe R
District 48: The southern part of this district is fairly Republican Eden Prairie (This is Erik Paulsen’s stomping grounds), but the northern part is clearly center-left portions of Minnetonka that aren’t in 44B, as well as a slice of Eden Prairie. The Senate race will be pretty uneventful as incumbent GOP Senator David Hann is running for reelection again against high school teacher Steven Cwodzinski. Hann will run ahead of the top of the ticket here, based on past performances. 48A DFL Representative Yvonne Selcer is retiring after 2 terms after winning 2 of the closest races in each of the 2012 and 2014 cycles. There was a primary for the Republican nomination for this seat. Ultimately the GOP primary voters went for conservative retired teacher Mary Schapiro instead over the moderate former DFL bundler Kris Newcomer. Shapiro has staked out a pretty staunch conservative profile, and is getting major financial backing in this EVEN PVI district. Shaprio is facing off against fellow against fellow retiree Laurie Pryor in November. I have no idea what is going to happen here, and we may see a race closer than the 31 vote margin we saw in 2014. I will give Shapiro the smallest of edges in this race simply because of the level of staffers she has in her corner. Though she ultimately may be too conservative to win this district, and is almost certainly too conservative to hold it. Jennifer Loon (R-48B) is the State Rep in Eden Prairie. Loon is probably best known as being the last woman standing following the RINO hunt that ensued after Minnesota passed its gay marriage legalization in 2013. Conservatives challenged in primaries all of the GOP backers of the bill, forcing some into retirement, and knocking off others. Loon, however, fended hers off, and earned herself some serious bipartisan cred in this socially liberal affluent suburban district. She didn’t garner a serious challenger, and will face off against recent University of Minnesota graduate Ben Sherlock. Loon will romp in this light red district.
Senate Likely R
House A Obama (D) 52-46
Franken (D) 52-45
Tilt R
House B Romney (R) 52-47
McFadden (R) 52-46
Safe R
District 49: Edina and west Bloomington. The western part of Bloomington is marginal, while the eastern part is quite blue. Edina used to be an affluent Republican stronghold, but has quickly become politically marginal and stereotypically affluent, and a tinge blue. The 2012 SD49 race was incredibly expensive, and it faced an up and coming DFL lawyer and a sitting GOP State Representative. Massive amounts of money were dumped into this race, but it has become too blue for Republicans to win district wide, and now-MNGOP Chairman Keith Downey found that out the hard way losing to now-Senator Melissa Franzen. The 8-point Franzen/Downey race will likely go down as the election where Republicans triaged Edina and west Bloomington. Evidence to support this is the fact that Franzen’s 2016 opponent is a retired Chamber of Commerce lobbyist that isn’t expected to actually be competitive for this seat. The State 49A is represented by DFLer Ron Erhardt. Erhart is an elderly man at 87. For decades he was an Arne Carlson Republican in the legislature, but he was one of the first victims of the recent fad of Republicans primarying their own in 2008. He then switched parties to the Democrats with the standard “The party left me” mantra. He came back and won his old seat back as a Democrat in 2012 at age 83. Erhardt is in no danger of losing a general election in Edina, only a Republican primary apparently. Erhardt faces Republican restaurateur Dario Anselmo in November for the second time in as many cycles. Erhardt won by 3 in the red wave year of 2014, and will win by more this year without the headwind. 49B, once about as politically even of a district as you would find anywhere, has moved left cycle over cycle, and is now firmly in the blue column, and getting more so every year. With the exception of a surprise loss in the 2010 election, Paul Rosenthal has held this seat since 2008, holding it against the red wave by 6 points. This cycle, Rosenthal will have an easy reelection against 25 year old web developer Max Rymer, who moved to the area in 2015. Expect Rosenthal to greatly eclipse the top of the ticket for the blue team.
Senate Likely D
House A
Obama (D) 52-47
Franken (D) 52-47
Likely D
House B Obama (D) 52-46
Franken (D) 53-45
Safe D
District 50: Eastern Bloomington and Richfield. I actually lived in this district for a time before I bought my house in Golden Valley. The Senate district is safely Democratic, as Melissa Halvorson Wiklund is running for a second term after winning the seat by 23 in 2012. Her opponent is a Some Dude(tte) Kirsten Johnson, who doesn’t even have a campaign website. Halverson Wiklund should win by 30 minimum. DFLer Linda Slocum in 50A is running for reelection against Republican Tim Johnson, which is a formality. 50B was the sight of a massive surprise in a special election earlier this year. GOP Representative Chad Anderson won election to a partial term rental in an election with miniscule turnout. Anderson, the son-in-law of GOP State Senator Dan Hall, is a massive underdog this year’s with presidential turnout against Bloomington City Councilman Andrew Carlson, the man he edged out 51-49 in February. DFL operatives have been pulled out of this district in favor of other targets, which means the state party feels it is safely flipped in the blue column.
Senate Safe D
House A
Obama (D) 64-34
Franken (D) 62-34
Safe D
House B Obama (D) 57-41
Franken (D) 56-41
Likely D
District 51: Burnsville and Eagan. This is really swingy territory in the south metro. It was swept by Republicans in 2010, and swept by Democrats in 2012, yet the leftward trend of the area meant Dems maintained both of the House seats in 2014 (The senate seat wasn’t up). State Senator Jim Carlson, who won two terms in 2006 and 2012, but was part of the aforementioned D losses in 2010, is on the ballot for the 4th time in as many cycles. He faces off against 2014 HD51B GOP candidate Victor Lake, who lost the 2014 primary after no endorsement was given at the district convention. Lake is a 29 year old immigrant from Uzbekistan. Carlson starts out as a clear favorite against the unconventional candidate, but the swingy nature of the district keeps it from being Safe D. Sandra Masin (DFL) has won the last 2 elections for this seat in 2012 and 2014 after losing the 2010 election for it. Masin has drawn retired Minnesota National Guard Staff Sergeant Brad Gerten, a veteran of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Gerten hasn’t gotten as much backing as one would have figured in a district as swingy as this; though the MNGOP is not known to be flush with cash or staffers. MinnPost doesn’t have this race on their radar, though the much more extensive competitive seat list the Strib has includes it. Masin seems to be sitting pretty on the backs of a superior state party apparatus. Not safe by any stretch of the imagination, but Masin is a clear favorite. In the slightly redder 51B, incumbent sophomore Laurie Halverson is trying to win reelection to her purple seat after defeating a GOP incumbent to first win it back in 2012. Representative Halverson is facing off against retired engineer and computer programmer Pat Hammond in November. Halverson has shown to be very much a pro-business New Democrat (she voted against creating MNSure exchange, the only DFLer to do so.) This is as swingy of a district as you’re going to find in the state, but Halverson has already won this seat in much worse conditions against comparable competition. Much like in 51A, the lack of GOP infrastructure is showing through here, which gives Halverson the edge. Because the seat is a few points redder, I give it a Lean D ranking instead of Likely D, but I suspect Halverson will win again.
Senate Likely D
House A
Obama (D) 55-42
Franken (D) 54-43
Likely D
House B Obama (D) 51-47
Franken (D) 52-46
Lean D
District 52: This is the liberal parts of northern Dakota County that was added to Kline’s district in the 2012 redistricting, moving the needle leftward on its PVI. The Republicans have a small presence at the southern fringe of this district in the southern part of 52B, but this is DFL territory. This district is a lot like District 50, which lies to the northwest. Senate District 52 is officially vacant, as 30 year incumbent DFL Senator James Metzen passed away after a battle with lung cancer in July. As the legislature’s work was done for the year, no special was called. Metzen had already announced his retirement, so there was no change in candidates here following his passing. Democrats got medical doctor and local school board member Matt Klein. Klein is the prohibitive favorite against GOP candidate Mark Misukanis, a professor of political science at a local liberal arts university. Misukanis has the profile to be a strong candidate in a more conservative district, though because of this seat’s strong DFL lean, he hasn’t garnered any attention. Rick Hansen is the DFL incumbent in 52A, and has been since 2004. Republicans nominated 69 year old pro-life activist Larry Sachi to run against Hansen. Hansen has won his last 2 elections by 20 and 25 points. Expect more of the same here. First elected in 2002, Joe Atkins (DFL) has been one of the more conservative members of the caucus relative to his district. The members of his party to his right hail from MUCH redder, generally rural districts. However Atkins is stepping aside after 14 years in office. The race to succeed him is between DFLer Mary T’Kach, and GOPer Regina Barr. T’Kach is a member of the Inver Grove Heights Planning Committee and Planning Commission, and has made a career out of being an energy efficiency advocate/professional. Barr is a financial business consultant and member of the Breast Cancer Education Association. I was set to call this race Lean D based on it only being D+1, the fact that Atkins retired, and relative candidate strength. But Barr, in spite of her presumed business contacts has raised little money and is not considered to be competitive by other prognosticators. So I will leave it at Likely D
Senate Likely D
House A
Obama (D) 59-39
Franken (D) 57-40
Safe D
House B Obama (D) 53-45
Franken (D) 51-46
Likely D
District 53: Western Woodbury and Maplewood. Maplewood is a very awkwardly shaped city, and the part of it in district 53 is the SW tendril. Maplewood is quite DFL, and Woodbury is slightly Republican leaning. DFL Senator Susan Kent won a tightly contested seat in her first election when she unseated then-GOP incumbent Ted Lillie. Kent is running for reelection for the first time, and will face Republican Sharna Wahlgren. Wahlgren, a lawyer, was last seen in 2014 losing to Congresswoman Betty McCollum 61-33 in MN-4. Wahlgren is generally regarded as one of the stronger suburban Republican challengers this cycle. I give the edge to the incumbent, as it is a D+2 seat, and she is a proven campaigner in a tight race. Wahlgren could be a surprise winner though. DFL Representative Joanne Ward has held 51A since 2012, and is facing Republican businessman Andy Turonie. This half of the didstrict is D+6, and Ward has outperformed the top of the ticket in 2014 and 2012, so she is going to win a 3rd term this fall. 53B is home of former GOP Rep Andrea Kieffer, who was one of the victims of the RINO hunt that followed legalization of gay marriage in Minnesota circa 2013. The woman that replaced her is Republican Kelly Fenton, and she is running for her first reelection this cycle against Democrat Alberder Gillespie. Gillespie serves on the elected local school board, and is a Sunday school teacher and small business owner. Gillespie has a good profile for higher office if she lived in a more liberal district, or were able to run in the more purple Senate district. But with this seat going 52% for both Romney and McFadden, I don’t think she will get it done. I expect Fenton to win.
Senate Lean D
House A
Obama (D) 56-41
Fanken (D) 56-40
Safe D
House B Romney (R) 52-47
McFadden (R) 52-46
Likely R
District 54: This is another one of the districts where the House seats are very different from one another, with 54A being far more Democratic than 54B. This also is a rare district that has all 3 seats open this cycle. Senator Katie Sieben (DFL) is retiring after a decade in office (likely in a move to set up a 2018 gubernatorial run), leaving her light blue seat open. 51A Representative Dan Schoen (DFL) is looking for a promotion after 4 years in the House. He clearly has the inside track for Sieben’s seat against Republican businesswoman Leiana Holmstadt. This race seems to not be on anyone’s radar as being competitive, in spite of it being open and D+1. Expect Schoen to move up relatively smoothly. 54A is quite decisively DFL friendly and centered around eastern Cottage Grove, and South St Paul (a suburb, not a neighborhood of St. Paul proper). With Shoen leaving this seat open to run for Senate, it will have a new Representative in January. The candidates are Cottage Grove City Councilwoman Jen Peterson (DFL) and St. Paul Park Mayor Keith Franke (R). Franke has the cooler job title, but St. Paul Park has a total of 5000 people, while Cottage Grove is 35000 people. With a 56% Obama and Franken district, Peterson is a strong favorite. 54B is swingy, and carried very narrowly by Obama, and by 4 points by Franken. Representing it is a 14-year incumbent Republican Denny McNamara. McNamara has been quite popular during his tenure, but is opting for retirement than going for an 8th term. Running to replace him is long time DFL official, Vietnam Veteran, and retired oil refinery worker Don Slaten, who ran against McNamara in 2014, losing 61-39. Money has flowed into both camps, and is considered a highly contested and competitive election. If I believed in Toss-up ratings, Id put one here, but I don’t. I will give this race a Tilt D rating based on political trends in this district, but it will be tight.
Senate Likely D
House A
Obama (D) 56-42
Franken (D) 56
Safe D (Safe D)
House B Obama (D) 49.15-48.57
Franken (D) 50-46
Tilt D
District 55: Scott County. This is mostly Republican territory, but there are some purple dots starting to show up in places like Shakopee (which is most of 55A). The Senate district might be home to the only Djibouti immigrant on the ballot in the country. Ali Ali is running against incumbent Republican Freshman Eric Pratt. Pratt will win handily, but Ali Ali’s name and back story are pretty interesting. The action in 55A is a lot less interesting than it was last cycle. Back then, Bob Loonan ended up winning the GOP primary as a far right Republican against a fringe right Republican, and is a solid lock for reelection against liberal activist Mary Hernandez. Loonan hasn’t made any waves in St. Paul, and in this district he isn’t in danger except perhaps against an A+ challenger, which Hernandez is not. 58B sophomore incumbent Tony Albright has settled nicely into incumbency in his cozy Republican district. He does face Democratic Some Dude(tte) Ceci Haakenson. Expect Albright to win 60-40+.
Senate Safe R
House A
Romney (R) 52-46
McFadden (R) 51-45
Safe R
House B Romney (R) 60-38
McFadden (R) 58-38
Safe R
District 56: Swingy Burnsville and a sliver of Apple Valley to the east (56B) and marginally Republican Savage to the west (56A). The Senate seat is held by sophomore GOP incumbent Dan Hall. Hall is running again against the man the DFL courted for this seat, Apple Valley City Councilman and former State Rep Phil Sterner. Sterner, in spite of him being touted as a “get” has hardly lit the world on fire as a candidate. It could change, as Hall has not shied away from controversy in his tenure, and Sterner is solid wave insurance, but Hall will likely be victorious. 23 year old freshman incumbent Drew Christensen (R) is running for reelection to the oddly similar named and aged Jared Christiansen, a 24 year old college student. Seriously, what is it with this district attracting college age candidates? Regardless, Christensen is the incumbent, and this is a Romney district, and is favored for reeletion. 56B is a district Obama carried by 66 votes in 2012, and will likely be competitive up and down the ticket again this fall. Freshman Roz Peterson faces off against Lindsey Port, a local small business owner, who defeated former Lockport (Illinois) school board member is a contentious primary in August. This seems to be a race that has a lot of attention being paid to it, which, given its close nature, makes sense. I give Peterson the slightest edge, due to incumbency.
Senate Likely R
House A
Romney (R) 51-47
McFadden (R) 51-46
Likely R
House B Obama (D) 49.07-48.78
McFadden (R) 49-48
Tilt R
District 57: Rosemount and Apple Valley. This is swingy area around Rosemount, and fairly Republican area around Apple Valley. Incumbent DFL Senator Greg Clausen is running for his first reelection this year. His opponent is Republican Cory Campbell, a local Chamber of Commerce official. This is a race that has a lot of attention, and is one of the most sought after DFL-held seats by the Republicans looking to take the chamber. It is going to be really close, but I give the incumbent the small edge in this district Obama won by 2. Tara Mack, literally got caught with her pants down, and it cost her her career as a politician. Both her and Representative Tim Kelly opted not to run for reelection after their… incident. That leaves this 51% Obama seat open. Recruitment in this seat was relatively weak on both sides, and Republicans ended up with 20-something house wife Ali Jimenez-Hopper, and Democrats ended up with nonprofit executive Erin Maye Quade. Word on the ground is that Republicans have all but pulled out of the race entirely, and Jimenez-Hopper has been cut off from funds in triage. Looks like a likely D pick up because Mrs. Mack couldn’t keep her pants on. In the slightly more conservative Apple Valley based 57B, sophomore Anna Wills appears to be well positioned to get a third term against Democrat John Huot, a local realtor. Even though Obama carried this district, Wills seems like a strong favorite
Senate Tilt D
House A
Obama (D) 51-47
Franken (D) 50-47
Likely D
House B Obama (D) 49.07-48.78
McFadden (R) 49-48
Likely R
District 58: Lakeville and southern Dakota County. This is pretty Republican turf (56% Romney). The senate seat is open with the retirement of GOP State Senator Dave Thompson, who represented the seat since 2010. Democrats got an interesting candidate in incumbent Lakeville mayor Greg Little. Lakeville, like the rest of the seat, is generally pretty Republican, but he has high name recognition and is popular in by far the largest city in the district. Still, Little has a tough row to hoe against retired engineer Tim Pitcher in November. Both parties are taking this seat seriously, as money and door knockers and yard signs and tv ads(!!!) are absolutely pouring into both camps. Quite the site in an R+8 seat. In the Lakeville based 58A freshman GOPer Jon Koznick is a prohibitive favorite against 1st grade teacher LeAnn Weikle. Regardless, this district is quite red, and Koznick will win. Pat Garafalo has represented Farmington in the House since 2004, and will continue to do so until at least 2019. First he has to beat Marla Vagts, a local lawyer. Vagst has a decent profile, but Garafalo isn’t going to lose.
Senate Lean R
House A
Romney (R) 56-42
McFadden (R) 56-41
Safe R
House B Romney (R) 56-42
McFadden (R) 53-43
Safe R
Districts 59-63. These seats are all Minneapolis, and all are going to go 70-30 DFL+. I will keep the segments brief unless there is something important involving the DFL primary
District 59: This is the north side of Minneapolis, home of Keith Ellison, and the closest thing to a majority Minority district you can get in the state. The Senate seat is occupied by Freshman Bobby Joe Champion, who served in the House prior to his 2016 election. Champion is running again. 59A incumbent Joe Mullery, who has served North Minneapolis in the House since 1997 was actually challenged by a Hmong refugee who was born in a refugee camp in Thailand before immigrating to the US, Fue Lee. Lee unseated Mullery in the primary 56-44, and will be a freshman Rep. in January. 59B Representative Raymond Dehn is running for reelection. Senate Safe D
House A
Obama (D) 84-14
Safe D House B
Obama (D) 80-17
Safe D
District 60: This district covers Northeast Minneapolis the U of M campus (and its 51,000 students), and a small sliver into Cedar-Riverside, and its large Somali community. Senator Kari Dziedzic was first election in a special election in 2012, and is running again and faces only a Legalize Marijuna Now Party challenger. No Republican filed in 60A against incumbent Diane Loeffler, but an independent did. That doesn’t matter against Loeffler though. After many cycles of primary challenges against 46 year incumbent Phyllis Kahn, the Somali community finally unseated her. The primary was won by a member of the Somali community that could bridge the gap with the University of Minnesota portion of the district with University alum and employee Ihlan Omar. Omar will be the first Somali American member of the state legislature after November.
Senate Safe D
House A
Obama (D) 77-19
Safe D House B
Obama (D) 76-19
Safe D
District 61: This is Southwest Minneapolis, which is the most affluent area in the city. Minneapolis is known as the City of Lakes, and this district holds more than its fair share, and the homes on the lakes are rather palatial. This doesn’t mean they are any more conservative than the poorer parts of the city, as this is as Democratic as the poverty stricken 59th district. Senator Scott Dibble is running for another term. Representative Frank Hornstein is running for reelection, as is foirmer Speaker Paul Thissen in 60B. Thissen would become Speaker again if Dems take the chamber, as he is currently Minority Leader.
Senate Safe D
House A
Obama (D) 78-19
Safe D House B
Obama (D) 78-20
Safe D
District 62: This is a combination of Hipsters on the western side of the district, diverse areas in the center and south, and college students on the Northern edge. This is the most Democratic, most liberal, and most politically homogenous district in the entire state. Senator Jeff Hayden, Representative Karen Clark, and Representative Susan Allen are all running for reelection. Hayden had a semi-serious primary challenger from the Somali community, but without nearly the numbers in 62, Hayden won with 73%. Allen didn’t even garner a challenger of any type.
Senate Safe D
House A
Obama (D) 86-9
Safe D House B
Obama (D) 87-10
Safe D
District 63: This is South Minneapolis, running from Downtown to the Airport. Incumbents Patricia Torress Ray (63), Jim Davnie (63A), and Jean Wagenius (63B) are all returning for more time in St. Paul.
Senate Safe D
House A
Obama (D) 83-14
Safe D House B
Obama (D) 74-24
Safe D
Districts 64-67: This is essentially St. Paul. Again, much like in Minneapolis, all of these seats are 100% Safe DFL, and will be won by blowout margins.
District 64: This is what is known as the West Side of St. Paul. It has many different pockets of different groups, far too many to try and mention here. Senator Dick Cohen is running again after 30 years in the Senate so far. Incumbent Representatives Erin Murphy (64A) and Dave Pinto (64B) are both back for more as well.
Senate Safe D
House A
Obama (D) 77-20
Safe D House B
Obama (D) 70-27
Safe D
District 65: This is Downtown St. Paul, and some surrounding areas. Senator Sandy Pappas is back for more time representing the State Capital. Representatives Rena Moran (65A) and Carlos Mariani (65B) are running again. Moran had a primary and won with 79% of the vote.
Senate Safe D
House A
Obama (D) 83-14
Safe D House B
Obama (D) 77-20
Safe D
District 66: This is the northern edge of St. Paul, and includes the State Fair Grounds, and a tiny sliver of Roseville to balance population. Senator John Marty actually lives in the sliver of Roseville, but has represented various forms of this district since 1986, and will continue to do so. Alice Hausman (66A) and John Lesch (66B) will be reelected to their House seats easily.
Senate Safe D
House A
Obama (D) 66-32
Safe D House B
Obama (D) 79-19
Safe D
District 67: This is the eastern part of St. Paul. Senator Foung Hawj will win election to a second term after winning the clown car primary for this seat in 2012. Tim Mahoney and Sheldon Johnson have represented eastern St. Paul in the House since the 1990s, and both are running for another term this year. Johnson has a Republican and a Libertarian on the ballot against him
Senate Safe D
House A
Obama (D) 76-22
Safe D House B
Obama (D) 74-23
Safe D