This is the second part to the highly popular legislative redistricting analysis.
District 29: Centered in some of the western exurbs. This is one of the most Republican districts in the state. These districts likely won’t be challenged at all.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R
District 30: Much like district 29, except with an open house seat that will have people clawing over each other for a decade in office.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R
District 31: This is the part of Anoka County that makes Anoka County Republican. The rest of the county is actually pretty marginal, but this area is blood red exurbs.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R
District 32: This is a district that has some of my Republican friends groaning. They really REALLY wanted this district to be split vertically and extended northward and if done right, could have locked up district 11 for Team Red. Courts didn’t go along with that. This essentially is a Republican vote sink of Chisago and Isanti Counties. Lots of open seats, but they are all safe regardless.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R
District 33: Money Money Money Money. This includes the wealthiest areas of the entire state around lake Minnetonka. The exceedingly wealthy in Minnesota lean R but not to the same level they do in other states, and the exurbanites in district 33B are as conservative as the ones in 29 and 30.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R
District 34: Maple Grove. Zellers lives here. Maple Grove is really the only big city that goes heavily Republican. Still, we are still winding our way through the exurbs, not too much interesting happening here electorally.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R
District 35: This district has me scratching my head a little bit. 35A is clearly going to be in play and is held by boy wonder tea partier Branden Petersen. Petersen is making a dash at the senate district, despite being a freshman at all of 25 years old. The senate seat SHOULD favor Republicans, but Petersen has some pretty far out there ideas relative to a Coon Rapids and Anoka (The Halloween Capital of the World) based district. With Peterson this open senate district would be more competitive than with someone more within the mainstream. 35A being open makes that a toss-up seat. And 35B is really Republican.
Senate: Lean R
House A: Toss-up
House B: Safe R
District 36: This is DFL area along the river in the NW suburbs. 36A has a portion of Champlin in it, which will tamp down DFL margins on that side, but not nearly enough to flip it.
Senate: Likely DFL
House A: Likely DFL
House B: Safe DFL
District 37: Blaine. Blaine leans Republican pretty handily, but it is also one of the strongest IP areas in the entire state. Still, it would take a really strong IP 3rd party split to get a DFLer in, as the Republicans do have some strong incumbents here.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R
House B Likely R
District 38: This district is sort of odd. It really isn’t a Republican stronghold (except for the North Oaks people, which I nearly got banned at RRH discussing before, on a misunderstanding). There are Republicans galore in this district, but it really isn’t a safe area for them. Although dividing Hugo in half gives them the edge, with 38B still being highly competitive.
Senate: Lean R
House A: Likely R
House B: Lean R
District 39: Eastern Washington County. The Southern half is dominated by Blue Stillwater, with the northern district dominated by Red Forest Lake. It is hard to see Lohmer (R-Lake Elmo) holding onto 39B, and Lillie in the senate district sits in a very polarized district. Incumbency gets the edge in the senate, but only by a short hair.
Senate: Lean R
House A: Likely R
House B: Lean DFL (likely DFL if open)
District 40: Brooklyn Park. Other than Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Duluth, Brooklyn Park gives the DFL the highest net vote total out of any city in the state. Safe DFL all around.
Senate: Safe DFL
House A: Safe DFL
House B: Safe DFL
District 41: Columbia Heights, Fridley, and New Brighton. These are some of the bluest inner ring suburbs you’re going to find. My parents actually live in this district now. No Republicans will be a serious challenge here.
Senate: Safe DFL
House A: Safe DFL
House B: Safe DFL
District 42: Swingy but DFL leaning. The now-defunct Ramsey County Vikings Stadium proposal would have put the new stadium smack dab in the middle of this district. I believe the senate district is open, as is 42A.
Senate: Lean DFL
House A: Toss-up
House B: Likely DFL
District 43: The North St. Paul part of this district is emerald blue, and the northern Little Canada district is DFL-leaning but not as overwhelmingly.
Senate: Safe DFL
House A: Lean DFL
House B: Safe DFL
District 44: Rich suburbs (but not really exurbs). Plymouth is a Republican stronghold. And Minnetonka is a pretty DFL city. I think incumbency wins the day, as the incumbents seem fairly strong.
Senate: Safe DFL (with Bonoff, if she lives here, I don’t know where her house is). Lean DFL without her.
House A: Likely R
House B: Likely DFL
District 45: Cystal and New Hope. These are more working class inner suburbs. The Republicans tend not to even contest this area, as it is nearly 2:1 DFL
Senate: Safe DFL
House A: Safe DFL
House B: Safe DFL
District 46: St. Louis Park and part of Hopkins. St. Louis Park has a large liberal Jewish population, and Hopkins is a center-left upper-middle class suburb. The DFL has strong incumbents and a tailwind here.
Senate Safe DFL
House A: Safe DFL
House B: Safe DFL
District 47: (Does anyone else get annoyed having to jump back and forth across the metro to follow the numbers numerically) . Republican vote sink in the SW exurbs. The DFL has exactly zero presence here.
Senate Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R
District 48: The southern part of this district is fairly Republican Eden Prairie (This is Erik Paulsen’s stomping grounds), but the northern part is swing-to-center left portions of Minnetonka. The senate seat is likely out of reach for the DFL, but 48A is certainly in play in spite of having a freshman Republican incumbent.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Lean R
House B: Likely R
District 49: Edina and west Bloomington. The western part of Bloomington is marginal, while the eastern part is quite Blue. Edina is actually center-right. Republicans have a strong senate and 49A incumbents, but Mazorol in 49B is really unimpressive, but incumbency matters.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R
House B: Lean R
District 50: Eastern Bloomington. I would be surprised if Republicans won anything here, especially considering the open seat is the much more liberal northern part of the district (with my home in Richfield) . Lenczewski won’t be losing any time soon either.
Senate: Likely DFL
House A: Likely DFL
House B: Likely DFL
District 51: Burnsville and Eagan. This is really swingy territory, and I expect both parties to control all 3 of these seats at one point or another through the decade. All 3 seats were held by the DFL prior to 2010 (this is the old 38), and all 3 are held by Republicans now. For the decade, these will remain toss-ups regardless of who controls them.
Senate: Toss-up
House A: toss-up
House B: toss-up
District 52: This is the quite liberal parts of northern Dakota County. The Republicans have a small presence at the southern fringe of this district, but this is DFL territory.
Senate: Safe DFL
House A: Safe DFL
House B: Likely DFL
District 53: Woodbury and Maplewood. Maplewood is quite DFL, and Woodbury is slightly so. The Republicans have a freshman sitting in 53B, so they could in theory hold it. But the rest of the seats should be strong for the DFL
Senate: Likely DFL
House A: Safe DFL
House B: Lean R (Lean DFL if open)
District 54: Southern Washington County. This is swingy to lean-R territory, although Cottage Grove has a fair sized DFL contingent.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Lean R
Senate: Likely R
District 55: Scott County. This is Republican territory to the core.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R
District 56: Swingy Burnsville and Republican Savage. The Republican incumbents here should have the edge at a win.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Safe R
House B: Lean R
District 57: Rosemount and Apple Valley. Rosemount leans left, and Apple Valley leans right.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R
House B: Lean R
District 58: Lakeville and southern Dakota County. Without Northfield, this area probably has a decent Republican lean. That being said, it is hard to draw lines in this part of Dakota County that are safe for either party.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R
House B: Lean R
Districts 59- 63: These seats are all Minneapolis, and going to go 80-20 DFL. There are a couple member-on-member match-ups here, but I imagine most of them will be resolved on their own terms.
5 Safe DFL senate seats, and 10 Safe DFL house seats.
Districts 64-67: This is essentially St. Paul. However Marty was drawn into a St. Paul district, and that may set off a incredibly contentious primary in 66. Either way, all of these seats are safe.
4 Safe DFL senate seats, and 8 Safe DFL house seats.
Overall- I think I deferred a little too much to incumbents, and likely a few of them will lose come November. But this is the general gist of what redistricting brought to us.