Alright, here is the final edition of my Minnesota election predictions. This will be a 2-part diary like the previous editions; however the format will be slightly different. Part 1 will be every election that is not legislative, and Part 2 will be all 201 legislative races. Also, there are no toss-up ratings for any race. In lieu of toss-up, I am going to give a tilt rating. Just for clarity, since there seems to be some discrepancy between terminology of ratings and percentages. Percentages are the odds the favored candidate will win.
Tilt D/R: 50.1%-60%
Lean D/R: 60.1-75%
Likely D/R: 75.1-99%
Safe D/R: <99%
Chief Justice, Minnesota Supreme Court: Incumbent Chief Justice Lorie Giuldea is up for reelection. Gildea, a Pawlenty appointee, is up for her first time since being elevated to Chief Justice. As an Associate Justice in 2008 she faced her first election campaign, and she won 55-45. In the primary earlier this year she was held to under 50% while facing a “primary”. Judges are elected on nonpartisan ballots in Minnesota, but if more than two candidates file for a particular judgeship, there is a top-two primary held in concurrence with the state primaries. The other person getting through the primary was Dan Griffith. Griffith nearly unseated Appeals Court Judge Larry Stauber, another Pawlenty appointee, in 2010. Griffith only garnered 29.4% of the vote in the primary, however. Unseating a sitting Supreme Court Judge is markedly difficult, but Griffith is making a good case for himself in spite of being outraised by a massive margin. Gildea should win, but given her being held under 50% in the primary, she isn’t safe.
Likely Gildea
Seat 1, Minnesota Supreme Court: This is the marquee Supreme Court race of the cycle. Pawlenty appointee Barry Anderson is running for reelection. Anderson was originally a Carlson appointee to be an appeals court judge. Pawlenty elevated him to the Supreme Court in 02. In 2006 Anderson ran for reelection unopposed. However this cycle former United States Senator Dean Barkley is running against him. Only Anderson and Barkley filed for this seat, so there was no primary. It is arguable that Barkley has higher name recognition than Anderson, but like the other races, it is hard to unseat a sitting Judge, especially one who hasn’t been in the headlines for anything. Anderson should win, but if one of Pawlenty’s Justices loses, it will probably be Anderson.
Likely Anderson
Seat 4, Minnesota Supreme Court: The third Pawlenty Supreme Court Justice facing election this year is David Stras. Stras, like Gildea, was held under 50% in the primary in a three-way race. Finishing second to Stras in the primary was Magistrate Judge Tim Tinglestad. Stras is the youngest member of the Minnesota Supreme Court, and scarcely looks his 38 years. I believe Stras to be the weakest of the three Justices facing the voters this year, and I really debated whether I felt Anderson or Stras was in a worse situation. The reason I chose Anderson over Stras was purely based on the strength and name recognition of their respective opponents. This is certainly a race to watch depending on how election night turns out.
Likely Stras
Amendment 1: Here we are getting into the hot button issue of the day. Amendment 1 would ban gay marriage at the constitutional level. Banning gay marriage is already codified in the state, but this is an amendment to the constitution. Polling has showed it close, but passing pretty consistently. Unlike in other states, this amendment seems to be more likely to pass than other states where this is being put to voters this year. There is a well-documented “Wilder Effect” when it comes to this sort of thing when it has gone to voters over the last 8 years. I suspect it will pass, albeit very narrowly. Essentially we are looking at 5 counties vs. 82: Hennepin, Ramsey, St. Louis, Washington and Dakota vs. everyone else. I suspect the amendment will pass 51-49 if I had to put a margin to it right now. One thing of note is the way the constitution is amended in the state: a non-vote is a NO vote. So If anyone leaves the space blank, it counts as a no. This may come into place if there is a significant undervote. I don’t suspect this one will be one that is undervoted by a lot of people, but in a close ballot, it could make the difference.
Lean Pass
Amendment 2: This is the Photo ID amendment. This is an amendment that was given an innocuous wording by the authors, it was attempted to be changed by the Secretary of State to more broadly reflect what the actual text entails, but the court sided with the legislature. This amendment will undoubtedly pass, but it will greatly change the way Minnesota handles everything from absentees to provisional ballots, but none of that is listed in the text put to voters. Regardless, I suspect that this will pass by a lopsided margin.
Safe Pass
US House Seat 1: Tim Walz is in his 3rd term in his district that stretches the entirety across the Iowa border. As sprawling as this district is, there are basically only 2 places where anyone lives; Mankato and Rochester. Rochester used to be a bastion of moderate Republicans, but it is jerked away from the Republican Party rather intensely as of late, going so far that Democrats actually win Olmsted County in some races now, something that was unthinkable not all that long ago. The Mississippi river counties on the eastern edge of this district are sparsely populated, but have long been Democratic bastions. The western edge of the district along the Minnesota River over to the South Dakota border used to be old Farmer-Labor territory (Rick Nolan’s old turf), but it has gone hard against the Democrats in the last decade or so. I don’t see that trend reversing itself this cycle, but these counties combine for a tiny fraction of the district. Command Sergeant Major (ret.) Walz has every advantage possible. He has the NRA’s backing, a big financial advantage, a wide name recognition gap, and a weak opponent. Al Quist is his Republican opponent this cycle, and Quist was a TEA Partier before TEA was cool. He went so far as to primary a sitting Republican governor with godlike approval ratings from the right. Quist had a brief tenure in the Minnesota legislature in the 80s, but has gone on to be more known as a political activist than anything he did as a representative. Quist is no threat to Walz. Given the marginal nature of the district, I think there is >1% chance that Walz loses, but not much more. Given my standards shown above, this puts it in likely territory, but only just.
Likely D
US House Seat 2: Education Committee Chairman John Kline was the “victim” of redistricting. The lines in Minnesota were drawn by courts, and changed very little. MN-2 moved slightly geographically, but it made a relatively large impact on terms of the district. MN-2 now has ALL of Dakota County in it. This actually a BFD, as the northern side of the county is densely populated, and nearly as Democratic as its former home within MN-4. Obama carried this area in 2008, and will certainly carry it again. That being said, Kline is not going to lose. He is too popular, too entrenched, and too powerful. Former State Rep Mike Obermueller is running against Kline, but in reality he is just running to be first in line once Kline retires. Kline is 65, and Obermueller is not yet 40, so it’s just a matter of time. If that time is sooner rather than later, Obermueller is going to try and make his case on the 7th. Anything under a 10 point loss would be a very good statement for him all things considered. Just due to the marginal nature of the district, the odds are slightly greater than 1% than Kline loses, but like the 1st district, it is not much greater than 1%
Likely R
US House Seat 3: Erik Paulsen is running for his third term in his Hennepin-Couunty based district. If Kline was the “victim” in redistricting, Paulsen was the “victor”. The lines didn’t much move at all, but Paulsen got a little arm out of Hennepin County to pick up Chaska and Chanhassen. Obama won this district in 08, and will win it again this year, and Klobuchar will CRUSH in the district. That being said Paulsen has been channeling the ghost of his predecessor (FWIW, Jim Ramstad is still alive and well) to wear the guise of his Main Street Partnership. That being said, Paulsen is much more conservative than Ramstad, but this fact has been well masked to the general public. Paulsen is tall, well-spoken, and has shied away from controversy. This has helped him with his popularity in his purple district. Political neophyte Brian Barnes is the sacrificial lamb set up for Paulsen by the DFL. Barnes has no political experience, no money, and no name recognition. Given the huge discrepancy between the candidates, I am actually going to give Paulsen a more secure rating than either Walz or Kline, in spite of the fact that the top of the ballot will go strongly against the Republicans, Paulsen is more than strong enough to swim up that stream
Safe R
US House Seat 4: Betty McCollum was elected to her St. Paul-based seat in 2000, and reelected by lopsided margins every two years since. Redistricting didn’t change the PVI of her district all that much, trading blue suburbs in Dakota County for blue counties in Washington County. However, McCollum will likely never show her face in the eastern edge of her district with the Stillwater Bridge ordeal. McCollum will likely be the only Democrat to lose her section of Washington County, but it won’t matter because Ramsey County is much larger, and overwhelmingly Democratic. Still, it should be noted that McCollum fought tooth and nail to not get Stillwater drawn into her district, and she did so very publicly. Ton Hernandez is the Some Dude put up by the Republicans, but he has no money, and no presence of a campaign. McCollum is safe, as any DFLer would be in a Ramsey-County district.
Safe D
US House Seat 5: Keith Ellison represents the bluest district in the state. There is no source of Republican votes within MN-5, and is actually quite an effective DFL vote sink based on Minneapolis and its immediate suburbs. Keith Ellison has, for some reason, emptied his coffers for this race, and has less than 200k in the bank as of the October 15th filing deadline. It won’t matter, because even the strongest of Republicans will lose this district 2:1 on a good night for them. Republicans are running Chris fields, an African American like Ellison. Mr. Fields has no political experience, but he is a retired marine. Fields, to his credit, is running a fantastic campaign, but it will be a fruitless effort in such a district.
Safe D
US House Seat 6: Michele Bachmann, first elected in 2006, was drawn out of her district. However, it won’t matter that she lives just across the border in McCollum’s 4th district; she was always going to run here. Along with Bachmann’s house, all of southern Washington County was moved out of the district. This was actually the bluest part of MN-6, and as a result, it actually got redder than it already was. This is as conservative as it gets in the state of Minnesota. That being said, Bachmann is a serial underperforming congresswoman, with will do much worse than Generic R in this district. Romney will likely with 57% in this district, and Bachmann probably has a ceiling in the low 50s, and a floor at about 48%. Businessman Jim Graves is carrying the torch for Team Blue in this race. Graves is a wealthy hotelier, but has resisted calls to self-fund his campaign. Graves has been campaigning in the reddest of the red parts of this district. I am not sure that is the best tactic for a Democrat in this district, but nothing else his party has done has actually unseated Bachmann, so it’s worth a shot, I suppose. With a redder 6th district, I just don’t see where he is going to get the votes to unseat Bachmann. Because Bachmann is Bachmann, she isn’t safe, but any other Republican would be safe here, so even if Graves completes his Hail Mary pass, it’ll likely only be for a single term.
Likely R
US House Seat 7: Former Agriculture chairman Colin Peterson has represented the sugar beet fields and Red River flood plains for over 2 decades in spite of its right-leaning politics up-ballot. Peterson, to his credit, is the poster boy for perseverance. Peterson wasn’t elected to congress until his fourth attempt. He is getting a little long in the tooth at 68, and won’t be around forever. There are Democrats (And Republicans, for that matter) waiting in the wing for Peterson to retire. Peterson survived both the 1994 and 2010 Republican waves by comfortable margins, so it does not appear as though he is in any danger this cycle. Challenging him in 2012 is his 2010 opponent Lee Byberg. Byberg is from Wilmar, on the southern edge of the district, whereas Peterson is lives in the north-central. Peterson is also a licensed pilot and flies himself all over the district, which helps greatly with campaigning in such a geographically large district. Republicans are waiting for Peterson to retire because they will see a great pick-up opportunity, much like the DFL in MN-2, but until that time, I just don’t see Peterson in any danger. But, given the 7th district’s political leaning, I would give Byberg a 3-4% chance of pulling off the upset.
Likely D
US House Seat 8: Here is where all the fireworks are. Chip Cravaack is the first Republican to win this district since William Pittenger (born in 1885, and last elected in WWII). Oberstar put his foot in his mouth big time at the last debate, and gave an opening for Cravaack to pull off the upset plurality victory in the 2010 Red Wave. Cravaack now has the unenviable position of running for reelection in such a district. My thoughts and feelings on this race are already well documented with regards to this race, so I won’t waste the keystrokes here. But Cravaack has a very difficult challenge against former Congressman Rick Nolan. Nolan comes from a part of the district that Cravaack needs to run up the margins in to put together another coalition, as Nolan is well known and liked from his time as a prominent businessman in the Crow Wing County area. This is by far the most contested race in the state this year, but all public polls show pretty much the same thing, a Nolan win. Republicans would really like to hold this district, but once Cravaack loses he will likely leave the state to be with his wife again, and the Republican bench in the district is somewhere between slim and nonexistent.
Likely D
US Senate: Amy Klobuchar is the most popular political figure in the state of Minnesota. She is running against Kurt Bills, a Paulite freshman state representative. No one of any stature chose to take on the former Hennepin County Attorney. Klobuchar has not run any negative ads, and she hasn’t had to. All of her spots have been endorsements from Republicans, and reiterations of her freshman term in the senate. Klobuchar has been endorsed by pretty much everyone, from every newspaper, to Republican businessmen, to every statewide elected official in the state. Oh, and the Indepdence Party of Minnesota all but endorsed her. The IP is publicly not putting in effort or money to unseat her, or even support the winner of the IP primary. Klobuchar really is the head of the DFL in terms of party organization and political clout. I truly believe that her 2012 election will be the high water mark for the DFL in a statewide election for decades to come.
Safe D
POTUS: In 2008, after Barack Obama and guaranteed a double-digit victory in the state, he pulled out all resources from the state. McCain, in a last-ditch effort put in a big ad blitz in the state, particularly in the Duluth media market. This late ad blitz kept Obama’s margin down to 10 points, and thus Obama actually underperformed Generic D in a good portion of the state. Mitt Romney is a worse fit for the parts of the state that McCain did well in, but Obama is not a great fit either. Either way, it won’t matter. It has been 40 years since a Republican won Minnesota presidentially, and Democrats are on an 11-1 statewide winning streak over the last decade. I don’t see Romney winning, but there may be a 2% chance of something very strange happening, so I am going to leave this race on the upper end of Likely
Likely D
Okay, that is all of the big non-legislative races in the state this year. I am waiting until the final campaign finance board reports are due at Halloween before post Part 2, which will be all 201 legislative races.