It took a while, but I have finally gotten Part 2 of 3 in this series done. I decided to wait until after the state conventions, and the filing deadline closing, as the information before that would have become quickly dated. Anyways, the following districts encompass the entirety of the "Outstate" districts. Part 3 will be the "Metro" districts, which are numbers 29-67.
Percentages are the odds the favored candidate will win:
Tilt D/R: 50.1%-60%
Lean D/R: 60.1-75%
Likely D/R: 75.1-99%
Safe D/R: <99%
District 1: Northwest Minnesota. This used to be a Democratic district, but has shifted right in recent cycles. In 2008 both house seats were held by the DFL and in 2010 they were won by Republicans. The senate seat has been held by Leroy Stumpf (D) since before I was born, but he may be the last Democrat to come out of here for a while, but it isn’t set in stone yet, as it has old loyalties. District 1A has sophomore incumbent Dan Fabian was first elected in 2010, and has entrenched himself already. He was not seriously challenged in 2012, and is facing the same token opponent in Bruce Patterson (DFL) again. Fabian looks a lock to return to St. Paul for another 2 years. The Roseau area is fully owned by Polaris, and is certainly the more Republican of the two House districts. Over in 1B, Deb Kiel has not given off quite as good of an impression locally as Fabian has, and 1B is a lot less Republican friendly than 1A. 1B is centered around Theif River Falls, and is essentially a wholely owned subsidiary of Arctic Cat (Yes, both major American snowmobile/fourwheeler manufacturer’s are in the same Senate district in the middle-of-nowhere-Minnesota). Keil was challenged pretty hard in her first reelection bid in 2012, but won 52-48. Her challenger for 2014 is political newcomer: agricultural businessman and Crookston Daily Times writer Eric Bergeson. Bergeson is quite familiar within DFL circles, and is a friend of long-term State Representative Bernie Lieder. As of now, Kiel should be considered a marginal favorite given her incumbency and the district’s rightward track, but she is nowhere near as strong as Fabian. I give it a weak likely rating, as I give her about a 75-80% chance of winning.
House A
Romney (R) 54-43
Peterson (D) 67-30
Fabian (R) 60-40
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 52-46
Peterson (D) 69-27
Kiel (R) 52-48
Likely R
District 2: District 2A is essentially the half of the Bemidji area that is in MN-7, the Red Lake Indian Reservation, and Lake of the Woods. 2A had another Republican swept into office during the 2010 wave, but he was unable to win reelection the way his western neighbors did. David Hancock had a one term hold on this Lake Of The Woods district before Roger Erickson (DFL) unseated Hancock in 2012 by a healthy 55-45 margin. This district is one that used to be solidly Democratic, but has moved the other direction, although much more slowly than 1. The aforementioned Hancock is back in 2014 for a rematch. Unless something strange happens between now and then, Erickson looks to be a pretty clear favorite. But if there is backlash from the shenanigans at the DFL State Convention, this is one of the seats that would feel it first. Directly to the south of 2A is the more GOP friendly 2B with Park Rapids at its core. Republican Steve Green won this redrawn seat in 2012, and after a divisive primary, running a shoestring campaign against a much more seasoned politician in the general election, former Representative Brita Sailer. Sailer opted not to seek a rematch, and that left Democrats with tailor and army veteran David Sobieski. Sobieski is not nearly of the caliber Sailer was, so it is tough to see any path to victory for him here. Still, it was a 2 point race last cycle, which is the only thing that keeps this from 100% Safe R.
House A
Romney (R) 50-48
Peterson (D) 67-29 (~60%)
Cravaack (R) 52-48 (~40%)
Erickson (D) 55-45
Lean D
House B
Romney (R) 56-42
Peterson (D) 64-32 (~60%)
Cravaack (R) 56-43 (~40%)
Green (R) 51-49 (~40%)
Likely R
District 3: Welcome to the northern side of the Iron Range and the BWCA: Home to Senate Majority Leader Tom Bakk who, along with the rest of the senate, is not up until 2016. Long-term incumbents Mary Murphy and David Dill (Both DFL) should win by their customary landslides against token opposition.
House A
Obama (D) 55-42
Nolan (D) 56-42
Dill (D) 67-33
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 60-38
Nolan (D) 60-40
Murphy (D) 65-35
Safe D
District 4: This is essentially Moorhead and surrounding area. This district is best known as the former home of long-time moderate Republican Morrie Lanning who retired in 2012. Given the movement in this particular part of the state, he is likely to be the last Republican representing Moorhead’s House district, which is a college town across the river from Fargo ND. DFLer Ben Lien won against Republican Travis Reimche in 2012. Up until the morning of filing closing June 3rd, it looked like Republicans would not have a candidate of any type in the seat, as it was one of the seats left uncontested on the previous Friday’s big Republican ticket announcement. No one seems to know anything about him, and even Google throws its hands up in the air when searched. Lien is young, and looks to have a long tenure ahead of him in the House. In the more Republican (rural areas around Moorhead) 4B Paul Marquart (DFL) looks to lock in his 8th term in the House (He won by a margin of nearly 50 points in Republican wave of 2010, and by 30 in the more Republican redrawn district in 2012). Like in 4A, Republicans couldn’t find a warm body to trot out on Friday, but did manage to find a man by the name of Jared LaDuke to file on the last day. Again, the Republican candidate seems to be someone off the street that doesn’t have any name recognition or political history or connections. Marquart is a famously tireless campaigner, and is one of the most personable politicians you’ll ever meet. Marquart is at the top of the list when it comes to strongest DFLers to run to succeed Peterson when Peterson hangs it up.
House A
Obama (D) 55-42
Peterson (D) 69-26
Lien (D) 55-45
Safe D
House B
Romney (R) 51-47
Peterson (D) 69-27
Marquart (D) 65-35
Safe D
District 5: The amalgam district: 5B is very much an Iron Range district, and 5A is decisively NOT. I hold this district near and dear to my heart, as I have a lot of family and friends here. This district is one of the 3 or 4 I know better than any political subdivision anywhere, and it stretches from Bemidji on the west, and Grand Rapids and western Itasca County in the east. Alright, that’s enough about me and my sentiment for this district. In the 2012 redistricting, this district had all sorts of people watching, as 6 incumbents were mashed up into the district, 3 Republicans and 3 Democrats, so the senate race, and both house races saw incumbent vs. incumbent showdowns. Democrats swept the races in the end, with ease that surprised even me. In 5A there was a Bemidji (DFL area) vs. Cass County (GOP area) between two strong Representatives: Larry Howes (R) and Persell (D). Persell ended up winning 56-44, which was an eye popping margin considering I had it as a Toss-up / tilt R race going into election night. Howes is not running for reelection, and Republicans have 32 year old upstart Phillip Nelson carrying the banner. Nelson seems to be at least interested running for office, unlike his brethren in District 4, as he was part of the group that filed jointly on Friday May 30th. It is hard to see Persell losing to a political newcomer after easily dispatching a top notch incumbent like Howes though. In 5B we reenter the Iron Range from the west, home of 4-term incumbent Tom Anzelc, who is running for reelection in his Grand Rapids area district, plus a portion of blood-red Cass County. Alnzelc defeated fellow incumbent, 1-term Representative Caroline McElfatrick in 2012. McElfatrick was a byproduct of the 2010 Red Wave, and was promptly voted out of office, although she kept it more respectable that I figure she would. Regardless, she is not running in a rematch against Anzelc. Representative Anzelc will instead face Justin Eichorn. It appears as though Mr. Eichorn has reserved a campaign website, but has not yet put it together. I can’t seem to find much other information about him other than he was part of the bulk candidate filing on 5/29, though.
House A
Obama (D) 51-46
Peterson (D) 64-31 (~40%)
Nolan (D) 53-47 (~60%)
Persell (D) 56-44
Likely D
House B
Obama (D) 49-48
Nolan (D) 53-47
Anzelc (D) 53-46
Likely D
District 6: Heart of the Iron Range. 29-year old Carly Melin will return to St. Paul for her second full term in 6A. She also served the vast majority of her first term following the special election to replace Tony Sertich, who resigned to take over as IRRRB Chairman in Dayton’s cabinet in early 2011. Melin faces a token primary opponent in August against someone named John Finken. However with Melin having the party endorsement, the primary is just a formality in this case. Given where this district is and the surname, I am fairly certain that I am related to him by marriage, as my maternal grandmother’s sister married a Finken. But the specific name John Finken doesn’t sound familiar at all. Republican Roger Weber is seeking a rematch against Miss Melin, but he is unlikely to do any better than the 71-29 thumping he received in 2012. Over in 6B, Melin’s former campaign manager, and current Representative in his own right Jason Metsa is seeking his first reelection after winning his seat when Tom Rukavina retired in 2012. Metsa was another candidate that nearly had a free shot in 2014, with a last-minute Republican getting in at the filing deadline. Matt Matasich, last seen losing to Senator Dave Tomassoni in 2010 70-30 is back for a second try for office in the Lower House against the freshman Metsa. His entrance doesn’t change the calculus in this Safe D affair, however.
House A
Obama (D) 63-34
Nolan (D) 64-35
Melin (D) 71-29
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 62-36
Nolan (D) 58-42
Metsa (D) 68-32
Safe D
District 7: Duluth. Duluth is a mini-San Francisco on the shore of Lake Superior, as well as the hub and port of the Iron Range. In 7A, 22-year incumbent Tom Huntley is stepping aside. Dr. Huntley, the Chairman of the Health and Human Services committee has been the driving force behind liberal health care reform for many years. Immediately after Huntley stepped aside, a fellow UMD professor announced her candidacy. Dr. Jennifer Schultz, a professor of economics, specializing in medical economic policy is running as a younger clone of Huntley. Schultz was quickly anointed by the DFL establishment, and has the field to herself in this deep blue seat. Republicans are running Becky Hall, so the race is not uncontested, but it won’t be close. In 7B, we have a rematch between Representative Erik Simonson (DFL) and Travis Silvers. Silvers is making is 3rd run for office, having never really come close. Life is rough being a Duluth Republican trying to win an election.
House A
Obama (D) 67-30
Nolan (D) 68-32
Huntley (D) 71-29
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 70-28
Nolan (D) 70-30
Simonson (D) 62-22-16 (serious write in campaign by a fellow Democrat)
Safe D
District 8: This is blood red farm territory in NW Minnesota, so much so that Amy Klobuchar lost this district in 2006. That really does sum up the political leanings of Ottertail and Douglas Counties. In 8A, long time GOP Representative Bud Nornes is assured a spot back in St. Paul again for a 10th term. Democrats managed to put up a sacrificial lamb in Cargill engineer Jim Miltich. Nornes won by 26 in 2012, and likely will repeat his performance in 2014. This entire area should be safely Republican; however, district 8B is the home of one Mary Franson. Franson is a famously loud candidate that nearly lost her district, which is one of the most heavily Republican in the entire state. After a recount, she ended up winning by 12 votes against high school football coach Bob Cunniff. Cunniff is not taking another shot at Franson, but the Democrats have recruited Alexandria Community College professor and former head of the Minnesota FFA, Jay Sieling to take on Franson. Sieling seems to be running a race as a safe farm-centric (think Collin Peterson) candidate that is not Mary Franson. Franson herself was challenged from the RIGHT by Otter Tail County GOP Chairwoman Sue Nelson, but after 7 ballots, she fended off the challenge. There was some chatter that Nelson would run in the primary anyways, but she did not file the paperwork, so it is Franson’s nomination. In reality this race has almost nothing to do with Jay Sieling, and everything to do with Mary Franson. There are a finite number of Republicans that can lose this district, but she is one of them.
House A
Romney (R) 59-39
Peterson (D) 56-40
Nornes (R) 63-37
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 58-40
Peterson (D) 55-40
Franson (R) 49.98-49.94 (10642-10630)
Toss-up
District 9: This is an agricultural and summer cabin district north of St. Cloud and west of Brainerd that was not-so-long-ago competitive for Democrats, but I think those days are now behind us now. This was a notion cemented by Senator Paul Gazelka (R) easily handling former Representative Al Doty (DFL) here in the 2012 senate race. In 2012 in 9A, pilot Mark Anderson (R) won this open and newly-drawn seat. He faced more opposition in the primary than in the general ultimately. There is an interesting name that stepped up to face Representative Anderson, Dan Bye, the 30 year old son of legendary 8th congressional district chairman Don Bye. In spite of his last name, it is hard to see a path to victory here for the younger Bye, as Anderson has avoided the headlines as a freshman. In 9B freshman incumbent Republican Ron Kresha was thought to have an easy reelection campaign, until the aforementioned Doty decided to file for his old seat after unsuccessfully trying to move up in 2012. Honestly, Doty’s entrance was a surprise to me, and I am not sure how much of a campaign structure he has in place, but he has run solid campaigns, and won them, in this blood red turf before. Still, this area has moved away from Democrats in just the last couple years alone sufficiently so that I give Kresha a better than even chance at winning his second term. For what it’s worth, Doty lost his home district to the incumbent Gazelka 51-49.
House A
Romney (R) 60-37
Peterson (D) 58-37 (~60%)
Cravaack (R) 58-41 (~40%)
Anderson (R) 58-42
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 60-37
Peterson (D) 58-37 (~20%)
Cravaack (R) 57-43 (~80%)
Kresha (R) 53-47
Lean R
District 10: This was a new district in 2012 by combining bits of other surrounding districts. It is fairly conservative area that has two DFL representatives, including a 28 year old freshman, and a GOP senator. 10A, which consists mostly of Brainerd with some of western Crow Wing County in there as well, is the more Republican of the two districts, but John Ward (DFL) is a popular 4-term incumbent. Ward is running for his 5th term this November against Republican Josh Heintzman, the chairman of the Crow Wing County Republican Party. Heintzman is a step above Ward’s 2012 candidate, but it wasn’t exactly a squeaker for Ward last time around as he won comfortably by 14. Over in the slightly more DFL 10B, which is eastern Crow Wing County and all of Aitkin County, we have the young freshman, Representative Joe Radinovich (DFL). Radinovich has already garnered a bit of a name for himself by destroying former State Representative David Schaaf in the 2012 DFL primary for this seat, and then going on to win the general election 51-49 in this GOP leaning area against Republican Dale Lueck. Lueck is back for a rematch, and given the closeness of the race last time, Radinovich could be in serious trouble. The race has not fully developed yet, but this could very well be the first loss for Democrats in the chamber.
House A
Romney (R) 55-43
Cravaack (R) 52-48
Ward (D) 57-43
Likely D
House B
Romney (R) 53-44
Cravaack (R) 49.92-49.75 (11053-11017)
Radinovich (D) 51-49
Lean R
District 11: This district is based south of Duluth. The northern part of the district has a decidedly Iron Range flavor, and the southern portion is North Woods, but no Iron Range (picture the Venn diagram). The DFL is absolutely dominant in Carlton County to the north, and has a fair presence in the southern part of this district as well. On the House side, there are two open seats. In 11A, union leader Mike Sundin (DFL) easily won his first term in the then-open Carlton County district. Sundin will easily win his second term, but before we get to November there is a primary on the Republican side. Heather Falk, who is an in home childcare provider, who briefly rose to prominence during the debate in St. Paul about whether to allow child care providers to unionize. Falk will face off against high school teacher and 2-time losing candidate for this district (06 and 08 then numbered district 8A, and represented by Bill Hilty). I don’t know how to handicap the primary, but given his past experience as a candidate, I would to give the edge to Tim Hafvenstein. In 11B, incumbent Tim Faust is looking for his 4th non-consecutive term in office, having been swept out for a term by the Red Wave of 2010. Faust faces IBEW union electrician and union official Jason Rarick. Rarick seems to be trying to hitch his wagon as closely to Stewart Mills as possible. Faust is a seasoned politician, but this district specifically may be tough for Democrats in November. Too early to handicap the race, as the fundamentals favor Faust, but I don’t see him as an especially strong incumbent, nor do I see Rarick as an especially strong challenger.
House A
Obama (D) 62-36
Nolan (D) 63-37
Sundin (D) 64-30
Safe D
House B
Romney (R) 51-47
Nolan (D) 51-49
Faust (D) 51-49
Toss-up
District 12: This is old school Farmer Labor country, specifically from the Farmer faction. This is Peterson country, with sugar beets, corn, and soybeans as far as the eyes can see. This is one area that the DFL prospects dim as time goes on. Politics isn’t a zero sum game, but as the DFL gains in some of the suburbs, the “F” faction of the DFL is dying off. This is also home of Senator Torrey Westrom, who is challenging Peterson for his U.S. House seat. In 12A, former Elbow Lake mayor Jay McNamar managed to win a narrow plurality election for the open seat against Brandom mayor Scott Dutcher. McNamar is facing another former small town mayor Jeff Backer, of Browns Valley, and the district hasn’t gotten bluer in the last 2 years. Backer has a primary to contend with in August, but I don’t see it as anything more than a formality. I have to give the edge to Backer, as this area is just getting too tough for Democrats. And if McNamar manages to win in 2014, it’s only a matter of time. 12B is substantially more Republican than 12A, and Paul Anderson (R) hasn’t done anything to upset voters in his 3 terms. He is safe against DFL challenger Pope County Commissioner Gordy Wagner. Wagner is a solid recruit, and should keep Anderson under 60%, but that’s about it.
House A
Romney (R) 52-46
Peterson (D) 64-32
McNamar (D) 47-46
Lean R
House B
Romney (R) 62-36
Peterson (D) 57-38
Anderson (D) 66-34
Safe R
District 13: This is more farm county surrounding St. Cloud, and is generally quite Republican, but has gone to the right Democrats now and then, such as Larry Hosch. Freshman representative Republican Jeff Howe should win 13A again comfortably against College of St. Benedict senior Emily Jensen. Jenson is surprisingly experienced in politics in spite of only being 22. Remember, Hosch was only 26 when he won this seat in 2004. She has a bright future in the party, but I don’t think it will be this election. That being said, stranger things have happened. Republican incumbent Tim O’Driscoll did not get a challenger in 11B and will appear on the ballot unopposed.
House A
Romney (R) 57-41
Peterson (D) 56-38 (~20%)
Graves (D) 52-48 (~80%)
Howe (R) 59-41
Likely R
House B
Romney (R) 57-41
Graves (D) 52-48
O’Driscoll (R) 60-40
Safe R
District 14: This district is a dot of purple in a sea of red, consisting of St. Cloud and the immediate surrounding area. 14A is slightly more Democratic, and 14B is slightly more Democratic. In 14A, partial term incumbent Tama Theis, who won the special election to replace Steve Gottwalt after he resigned in early 2013, is running for her first reelection. She won the 2013 contest 55-43. She will be facing Realtor Dan Wolgamott, who does not appear to be politically connected or experienced. Theis should win fairly easily in her reddish purple district unless something strange happens. In 14B, freshman DFL representative Zach Dorholt won a surprisingly strong 13 point victory over incumbent GOP representative King Banaian (yes, that is is real name). Dorholt’s victory was surprising, as he substantially over performed Obama against an incumbent that hadn’t made any egregious errors. Dorholt has drawn perhaps the strongest challenger of any incumbent Democrat up for reelection in the form of former 12-year moderate GOP state representative Jim Knoblach. Knoblach opted to not seek reelection in 2006 in favor of a primary challenge to Michele Bachmann for MN-6, which was being vacated by Mark Kennedy who was running for U.S. Senate against Amy Klobuchar. Knoblach got his name back in the headlines earlier this year by suing the state of Minnesota for the new Capital Building renovations. The lawsuit was tossed out of court, but it provided the launching pad Knoblach wanted for a return to politics. It is really hard to handicap this race, as the immediate St. Cloud area is more Demoratic than when Knoblach represented it, but he was well liked when he left office. I will leave it as a toss-up for now, but this is a major race to watch in November.
House A
Romney (R) 50-48
Graves (D) 57-42
Gottwalt (R) 54-56
Likely R
House B
Obama (D) 53-43
Graves (D) 62-38
Dorholt (D) 56-43
Toss-up
District 15: This is a fairly Republican area east of St. Cloud, with the Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe reservation in 15A. The DFL didn’t put up any strong candidates in either race, so neither race is likely to be extremely competitive. Incumbent 15A GOP representative Sondra Erickson drew only a token Democrat in James Rittenour, so she is likely to have an easier go of it than she did in 2012 in the more moderate half of the senate district. In the more conservative 15B, freshman GOP incumbent Jim Newberger looks to repeat his victory over DFL lawyer Brian Johnson for the second time in two cycles, after winning by 16 in 2012.
House A
Romney (R) 55-42
Bachmann (R) 58-42 (~25%)
Cravaack (R) 51-49 (~75%)
Erickson (R) 52-47
Likely R
House B
Romney (R) 63-35
Bachmann (R) 55-45 (~99%)
Cravaack (R) 57-43 (~1%)
Newberger (R) 58-42
Safe R
District 16: This is basically a southern bank Minnesota River Valley district. 16A is not as ancestrally DFL as the northern bank of the Minnesota. 16A is represented by sophomore Republican Chris Swedzinski, who is not in danger of losing in 2014. This is Marty Seifert’s old stomping grounds. Representative Swedzinski faces Democrat Laurie Dreissen in November. Dreissen seems to have some campaign presence, but isn’t a threat to the incumbent. Downstream from 16A on the Minnesota lies the more Republican 16B. Paul Torkelson (R) lives here, and has represented the area since being first elected in 2008. He faces DFLer James Kanne, but the general election is a formality, as Kanne is running a futile rematch of 2012.
House A
Romney (R) 52-45
Peterson (D) 62-34
Swedsinski (R) 57-43
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 57-40
Walz (D) 53-46 (~60%)
Peterson (D) 58-37 (~40%)
Torkelson (R) 56-32-12 (Strong IP presence)
Safe R
District 17: We cross the river to the north side of the Minnesota River here. This is substantially more DFL leaning than the southern bank. I had my questions about the senate race in 2012, but Lyle Koenen won the incumbent vs. incumbent matchup with GOP senator Joe Gimse fairly handily, so the old loyalties aren’t dead here yet. As far as the 2014 House races go, 31 year-old 3-term incumbent rep. Andrew Falk (DFL) is running for reelection in 17A. Falk faces the man he defeated 2 years ago, Tim Miller (R). One big advantage that Miller has is a massive warchest that he did not dip into to win by 8 points in 2012. He will likely need to leverage this to his advantage this round, as he is well to the left of a lot of Democrats and voters in this area, but voters have known that since he was a 25 year old running for office for the first time in 2008. In 17B, freshman teacher Mary Sawatzky is running for reelection. Sawatzky won a narrow plurality election against incumbent GOP representative Bruce Vogel. Vogel did not opt to seek a rematch, and the Republican banner will be carried by hotel/restaurant executive David Baker. Baker brings personal money to the race, and appears willing to pay what it takes to win the election. I suspect he wins, as Sawatzky is generally not considered a strong incumbent.
House A
Romney (R) 51-47
Peterson (D) 63-33
Falk (D) 54-46
Lean D
House B
Romney (R) 51-47
Peterson (D) 55-40
Sawatzky (D) 48-44
Lean R
District 18: This is where the exurbs meet the cornfields. This is prime Republican territory. In 18A, 12-year incumbent Dean Urdahl (R) is running for his 7th term, and is a lock for it. Urdahl faces 2012 DFL candidate for Senate District 18, Steven Schiroo. Schiroo lost to Senator Scott Newman by the same 58-42 margin that Urdahl carried this district by against Nancy Larson last cycle. In 18B, sophomore Republican representative Glen Gruenhagen faces a Democratic some due John Lipke. No matter, Guenhagen will romp regardless.
House A
Romney (R) 58-40
Bachmann (R) 62-38 (~10%)
Peterson (D) 52-41 (~90%)
Urdahl (R) 58-42
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 60-37
Peterson (D) 49-43
Gruenhagen (R) 58-42
Safe R
District 19: This is essentially Mankato and Nicollet County in south-central Minnesota, and is pretty blue turf. In 2012, 2 of the 3 DFLers running for reelection didn’t even have Republican opponents. That is not the case in 2014, however. Terry Morrow (19A-DFL) resigned shortly after winning unopposed, and the special election to succeed him was easily won by now-Representative Carl Johnson (DFL) over quixotic former State Representative Al Quist and an Independence candidate 53-36-10. Johnson is running for reelection against Republican Kim Spears, a last-minute filer and Some Dudette. Johnson will win handily. In 19B, which is effectively Mankato proper, 4-term representative Kathy Brynaert chose to retire instead of run for another term after her 70th birthday. In the seat she is vacating there will be a head to head matchup of Mankato City Councilman Jack Consadine, and small business owner Dave Kruse. Kruse was unopposed in his bid for the nomination, but Consadine had a contentious endorsement battle with fellow member of the Mankato City Counsel, Karen Foreman. After 5 ballots however, Consadine crossed the 60% thrshhold, and Foreman and Brynaert immediately endorsed him. Consadine is a prohibitive favorite in November
House A
Obama (D) 52-45
Walz (D) 63-37
Morrow (D) 100% (Unopposed)
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 57-40
Walz (D) 65-35
Brynaert (D) 64-36
Likely D
District 20. The northern portion of this district is some far flung exurbs(A), and the southern part (B) is actually DFL leaning farmland and the liberal college town of Northfield, former home of Senator Paul Wellstone. Kelby Woodard (R) won a nailbiter 37-vote victory over David Bly in 2010, and then underperformed Romney against a nobody in 2012. Kelby is a staunch Kurt Daudt ally, and serves as Assistant Minority Leader. Once seen as a rising state in the Republican Party, he has decided to hang it up after 2 terms. Running to replace Kelby is former Scott County Commissioner Bob Vogel. Vogel is a long time bank executive, and presumably has plenty of money to throw around here. He won’t need it in this 58-40 Romney district however. Vogel will run against and beat DFLer Tom Lofgren. Interestingly, Lofgren wasn’t supposed to be the nominee at all. Tom Rees, a former Republican state legislator (circa 1979-1987) had filed for the office on the same day that Lofgren did, but unexpectedly withdrew his nomination 2 days later to avoid the primary. Rees’ candidacy was something I was keeping an eye on, but not so much for Lofgren. In 20B, David Bly (DFL) has settled into his 2012 redrawn blue district, after serving 2 terms in a purpler district previously. Bly, a former teacher, will face Republican Dan Matejcek. Matejcek, from what I understand, is not a standard political candidate, and does not have political tact, or have a firm grasp of issues. As he proclaimed at his own nomination convention speech that he simply doesn’t want to embarrass himself.
House A
Romney (R) 58-40
Walz (D) 54-46 (~40%)
Kline (R) 66-34 (~60%)
Woodard (R) 54-45
Safe R
House B
Obama (D) 54-44
Quist (R) 54-44 (~40%)
Obermueller (D) 61-39 (~60%)
Bly (D) 57-43
Safe D
District 21: This is very marginal territory overall that essentially covers the SE corner of Kline’s district along the Mississippi river. I was actually kind of surprised when Obama within 3 points of Romeny, as I figured this would be a 55/45 R area, as it had been previously. Either way, it is pretty swingy now, with the two incumbent Republicans sweeping their two house seats, and the DFL surprisingly winning the senate race with Matt Schmit unseating Senator John Howe (R). So the area is slowly moving to the left, albeit slower than a lot of other areas in MN-2. Rep Tim Kelly (R-21A) is running for his 4th term after winning 57-22 in the bluer of the two districts, which was actually won by Obama by 4 points. Kelly, a former member of the Redwing School Board, faces silica-sand mining opponent, Wabasha City Councilwoman Lynn Schoen. This topic has been of great debate in the sandstone-rich region of SE Minnesota. There are a host of issues like increased train traffic, North Dakota oil spills and such, and environmentalists in the region have taken up the cause of preventing the sand they use in North Dakota oil and gas extraction from being quarried there. The battle lines have been drawn in the area with about a 50/50 split. I don’t see a strong chance for a candidate running a single-issue campaign, but Schoen is an elected politician in her own right running in an Obama district, keeping it from being 100% safe R. In the more Republican 21B, incumbent Steve Drazkowski (R) is running for his 4th full term, after winning a special election victory for his seat upon the resignation of Steve Sviggum (R) in early 2007. Mark Schneider, the man whom Drazkowski pounded 65-35 in 2010 is giving it a second shot after not running in 2012. The Right-to-work advocate Drazkowski is among the safest Republicans in the state, even though his district is not among the most conservative.
House A
Obama (D) 51-47
Kline (R) 53-47
Kelly (R) 57-42
Likely R
House B
Romney (R) 54-44
Walz (D) 56-44 (~30%)
Kline (R) 59-41 (~70%)
Drazkowski (R) 58-42
Safe R
District 22: This is the southwest corner of the state, and full of corn fields. Once able to be won by Democrats, the area is now very Republican, and contains the only 2 counties in the entire state Amy Klouchar lost in 2012: Rock and Pipestone. 28 year-old Joe Schomacker first won this seat 6 months after returning to Minnesota after getting his MPA from George Washington University at age 24 in 2010. He drew a Some Dude(tte) challenger in Dianna Slyther, but that’s just a formality, as he will win 60-40. Next door in 22B, Rod Hamilton, first elected in 2004, is equally assured of a 6th term against the woman he defeated in 2012: Cheryl Avenel-Navara. Avenel-Navara didn’t impress last time, and I don’t expect her to do so this round either.
House A
Romney (R) 56-41
Quist (R) 55-45 (~25%)
Peterson (D) 53-42 (~75%)
Schomacker (R) 59-41
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 54-44
Walz (D) 54-46 (~75%)
Peterson (D) 57-37 (~25%)
Hamilton (R) 60-40
Safe R
District 23: This is the south-central Minnesota district along the Iowa border. 21A will again reelect Bob Gunther (R) to another term in St. Paul, this time against Nurse Pat Bacon. Gunther has not been challenged seriously in 20 years, and is not in any danger this round either. Gun advocate representative Tony Cornish (R-23B), for the second cycle in a row, will not have a general election opponent, which is quite strange, as it is not nearly as Republican as some other districts in the state, and Cornish has a tendency to cause waves when it isn’t necessary. Either way, he can’t lose an election to a blank ballot line.
House A
Romney (R) 59-39
Quist (R) 52-48
Gunther (R) 56-44
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 50-47
Walz (D) 59-41
Cornish (R) 96% (Unopposed)
Safe R
District 24: This is a locally swingy area around Owatana in southern Minnesota that is more Republican upballot. Unlike a lot of other farm areas, this one isn’t really moving right, as Owatana has long been a Republican bastion. It has actually started to move left downballot while the top of the ticket has stayed marginally Republican, making it quite unique in terms of political trends. DFLer Vicki Jensen won the open senate seat in 2012 when Paulite Senator Mike Perry chose to take a shot at Walz in MN-1, losing the nomination to Quist. In the more Republican 24A, freshman GOP representative John Petersburg is running for a second term against last-minute filer Beverly Cashman. Cashman is a music teacher that has no political connections, and Petersburg will cruise to reelection after fighting in a contested race in 2012. Patti Fritz (DFL) in 24B has been a top-level Republican target since she was first elected in 2004, and her margins have never been stellar due to that fact, along with the nature of the district. Although in 2012 she performed better than many people, myself included, thought she would. The next hurdle for her is Brian Daniels. Daniels is a recent transplant to the Owatana area, and is best known as 29A State Representative Marion O’Niell’s little brother. Until recently Daniels was a resident of Bagley Minnesota, on the clear opposite side of the state. Obviously having a sister in the chamber is a campaign asset, but is had a strange kickoff saying that he and Fritz agree on most issues, and that he likes her personally. Not sure what the tactic is there, to be honest.
House A
Romney (R) 52-45
Walz (D) 54-46
Petersburg (R) 52-48
Likely R
House B
Romney (R) 50-47
Walz (D) 54-46 (~95%)
Kline (R) 61-39 (~5%)
Fritz (D) 57-43
Lean D
Districts 25 and 26. I do this together, as they are essentially mirror images of each other. 25B and 26A are Rochester, and have gone from a Republican bastion to a DFL stronghold in just a few short years. This used to be the land of Republicans like Gil Gutknecht, but those days have passed as the Mayo Clinic has exploded and more educated liberals move to the area for work. 25A and 26B are the surrounding areas around Rochester, and are currently Republican seats, as they have not seen the influx that Rochester proper has. 25A GOP Representative Duane Quam was challenged pretty intently in his 52% Romney district in 2012, but this cycle he gets the Tony Cornish treatment, having not drawn a general election opponent at all. Similarly in 25B, DFL incumbent Kim Norton does not have a Republican challenger this cycle, after beating Melissa Valeriano in 2012. In 26A we have a Rochester Rematch, with DFL incumbent Tina Liebling facing Rochester School Board member Republican Breanna Bly for the second time in as many cycles. Liebling won 59-41, and I expect a similar margin here this round as well. 26B is open after Mike Benson ran for the GOP nomination to take on Tim Walz. Strangely, Benson was left out of the running in what is turning out to be a strange, strange saga in MN-1 this cycle. Either way, it’s an open 53% Romney seat that was represented by a Republican (Benson) from 2010-2014, and a Democrat (Andy Welti) from 2004-2010, and another Republican (Bill Quisle, Jeff Johnson’s 2014 LG pcik) before that. Still, this is not an even playing field for Democrats, as Welti was a special candidate. The leading candidate for this open seat is GOPer Nels Pierson. Pierson is the chairman of the Olmsted County GOP, and has been in and around campaigns for a long time. Democrats got a good candidate here too in Richard Wright, the president of the Olmsted County Bar Association, and a school board member. This will be a highly contested race with lots of candidate fundraising and outside spending. Given the lean of the district, I give Pierson the edge, but that could change.
House 25A
Romney (R) 52-45
Walz (D) 53-47
Quam (R) 54-45
Safe R
House 25B
Obama (D) 53-44
Walz (D) 58-41
Norton (D) 58-42
Safe D
House 26A
Obama (D) 57-40
Walz (D) 63-37
Liebling (D) 59-41
Safe D
House 26B
Romney (R) 53-44
Walz (D) 52-48
Benson (R) 57-43
Lean R
Districts 27. This area is fairly strong DFL cornfields along the Iowa border, akin to neighboring IA-1 to the south. 27A is more or less Albert Lea/ Freeborn County, and 27B is more or less Austin/Mower County. In 27A, freshman DFLer Shannon Savick unseated accidental 1-term GOP representative Rich Murray. Murray raised gobs and gobs of cash for his reelection bid, but Savick pulled off the win anyways. Savick is facing retired teacher Peggy Bennet. The IP is choosing to play here after making a decent showing in 2012, which can always be a wildcard. Still, Savick beat a stronger, and incumbent, Republican in 2012 with IP interference then. This is a 55/42 Obama district, so Savick starts with a solid head start. 27B incumbent Democratic Representative Jeanne Poppe has represented her 60% Obama district for a decade. She has drawn a retired Republican businessman opponent in the form of Dennis Schminke. Schminke actually has a decent website up, but appears to be a political newby, and Poppe is not going anywhere
House A
Obama (D) 55-42
Walz (D) 64-36
Savick (D) 48-44-8 (IP Candidate)
Likely D
House B
Obama (D) 60-38
Walz (D) 67-33
Poppe (D) 63-37
Safe D
District 28: This is the southeastern corner of the state along the Iowa/Wisconsin border and the Mississippi river around and south of the college town of Winona. The northern part around Winona is generally a solidly DFL area, while the southern 28B is more swingy with an EVEN PVI. Interestingly, this is home to GOP Senator Jeremy Miller, the scion of a local Republican family. Miller isn’t up until 2016, but he is going to be very difficult to unseat, even then. Gene Pelowski (DFL) has represented the Winona area in the House of Representatives since his first election in 1986, and has not been challenged seriously in decades. Pelowski drew 21-year old Winona State University student Lynae Hahn. I have no idea who Miss Hahn is really, but she is listed as the campus Republican President. Kudos to her for throwing together a campaign complete with campaign manager, treasurer, bank account, and campaign finance board paperwork. There are incumbents that have trouble getting all their paperwork in on time. It matters for naught though, as Pelowski is bulletproof. In 28B there is Republican incumbent Greg Davids, who has represented this area more or less since 1991. He did lose for a single term in 2006, but won against the man who defeated him, Ken Tschumper against the 2008 headwind. Davids and Tschumper have run a number of times against one another, most recently in 2012, but Tschumper is sitting this one out. Instead, Davids will face off against DFL restaurateur Jon Pieper. Pieper seems to have a bit of money to throw at this race. It isn’t 100% safe for Davids, given the fact that he has lost this district in the recent past, and it is a marginal district, but he is verging on safe, but isn’t there as of June 2014.
House A
Obama (D) 56-41
Walz (D) 62-38
Pelowski (D) 67-33
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 52-46
Walz (D) 59-41
Davids (R) 58-41
Likely R