This is the third and final installment (metro legislative) of my 2014 elections 2pring/summer edition. The first section (statewide and congressional) can be seen here and the second section (outstate legislative) can be seen here
District 29: Centered in some of the western exurbs centered around Buffalo in blood red Wright County, there are two unopposed Republicans. Sophomore Joe Joe McDonald and freshman Marion O’Neil didn’t draw a single opponent between them.
House A
Romney (R) 60-38
Bachmann (R) 54-45
McDonald (R) 62-38
Safe R
House 26
Romney (R) 57-40
Bachmann (R) 52-47
Chrissis (R) 50-42
Safe R
District 30: Much like district 29, but even more Republican and centered around St. Michael/Albertville and Elk River. Former Elk River City Councilman Nick Zerwas easily won his inaugural race for the state legislature in 2012, and is a shoo-in for a second. Zerwas faces young DFL upstart Brednen Ellingboe, who is running a “True Believer” unabashedly progressive campaign. It won’t matter, as he will lose 2:1 against Zerwas. On the B side we have a GOP primary in August for the right to take on and beat DFLer Sharon Shimek, who lost her race against incumbent David FitzSimmons in 2012. FitzSimmons, you may remember, supported the same sex marriage bill that passed in 2013, and from that point forward it was clear he would not receive the GOP endorsement for his race again, so he chose to retire than be shown the door at the convention. The two candidates moving forward with their primaries are St. Michael City Councilman Kevin Kasel, and endorsed candidate Eric Lucero, who is a member of the city council of the far smaller city of Dayton. Lucero rose to prominence by running a single issue crusade against FitzSimmons, and gathered up enough good will to win the endorsement on the first ballot. Lucero should be seen as the strong favorite in the primary and general, but Kasel is likely the stronger politician. Regardless, both would win in November.
House A
Romney (R) 58-39
Bachmann (R) 53-46
Zerwas (R) 64-36
Safe R
House 26B
Romney (R) 62-36
Bachmann (R) 55-45
FitzSimmons (R) 62-38
Safe R
District 31: This is the part of Anoka County that makes Anoka County Republican. The rest of the county is actually pretty marginal, but this area is blood red exurbs. Kurt Daudt (R-31A) may be the luckiest politician in the state. After his “Montana incident”, I was astonished when I found out that he not only got his party’s endorsement, but he didn’t even get a general election opponent. On the other side of the district, Tom Hackbarth got his token DFL opponent of the cycle in the form of public health official JD Holmquist. Hackbarth will win easily.
House A
Romney (R) 62-35
Bachmann (R) 58-42 (~75%)
Cravaack (R) 58-42 (~25%)
Daudt (R) 60-39
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 59-38
Bachmann (R) 54-46
Hackbarth (R) 61-39
Safe R
District 32: This is Chisago and Isanti Counties, which up until fairly recently was winnable for Democrats, and as recently as 2010 had DFL representation in these seats. However those two counties, while stagnating in population now after 15 years of explosive growth, became one of the Republican epicenters of the state. In 32A, which is more or less Cambridge and unpopulated areas in Isanti and western Chisago Counties, we have a rematch of 2012. GOP Representative Brian Johnson, a former police officer, faces off once more against Paul Gammel, a fellow police officer himself. I don’t see this race going any differently than the last time, with a solid mid-to-upper single digit Johnson victory all but assured. 32B is essentially the eastern part of Chisago County, including North Branch. In one of the tightest races in the state last cycle, 2010 wave Republican incumbent Bob Barrett faced off against former State Senator Rick Olseen and pulled off a 391 vote victory. Olseen is not running again, but Democrats got an interesting candidate in former Duluth(!!!) City Councilwoman Laurie Warner. I met Mrs. Warner while she was a member of the Duluth City Council a decade ago, and she is a pure populist. She is a union official and a church deacon. I am not sure how the people in North Branch will react to her only living in the area for a handful of years (he husband is from there, FWIW). I give a strong edge to Barrett, but keep an eye on Warner.
House A
Romney (R) 57-41
Cravaack (R) 54-46
Johnson (R) 51-44
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 55-43
Cravaack (R) 53-47
Barrett (R) 51-49
Likely R
District 33: Money Money Money Money. This includes the wealthiest areas of the entire state around Lake Minnetonka, plus exurbs not around the lake. The exceedingly wealthy in Minnesota lean Republican but not to the same level they do in other states, and the exurbanites in district 33B are as conservative as the ones in 29 and 30. This district actually saw more than its fair share of insurgent Tea Party type candidates unseat incumbents in 2012 in their primaries. Freshman Jerry Hertaus in 33A represents all of the blood red low population areas on the western edge of Hennepin County. Moderate DFL businessman Todd Mikkelson is taking another stab at this seat after losing to Hertaus in 2012. Mikkelson actually did fairly decently for a Democrat in the area, but this area is just so incredibly red it is hard to see him doing much better this round; Hertaus is safe. In 33B, there is perhaps the second biggest Republican bomb thrower in the state legislature (behind Mary Franson) in Cindy Pugh. Pugh was one of the Tea Party candidates mentioned above, and she has not shied away from stirring the pot with some comments one might have expected based on how her initial 2012 campaign went. Pugh faces a no-name Democrat Paul Alegi. Pugh will likely lag in the richer, and less cookie-cutter mansion exurban Lake Minnetonka district. And Alegi does not seem nearly strong enough to make Pugh sweat, but expect Alegi to run 20+ points behind Paulsen, and 10+ points behind the GOP statewide ticket in terms of margin of victory.
House A
Romney (R) 62-36
Paulsen (R) 70-30
Hertaus (R) 62-38
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 55-44
Paulsen (R) 63-37
Barrett (R) 54-46
Likely R
District 34: Maple Grove. In terms of raw vote totals, Maple Grove is one of the places Republicans need to run up the margins to be competitive statewide. After a decade of smooth reelection efforts, Republican Joyce Peppin is running unopposed in 34A. Former Speaker Zellers represents 34B, but is retiring in order to pursue a race against Mark Dayton. Zellers’ campaign treasurer Dennis Smith won the GOP endorsement at the party convention, and his primary opponent Osseo School Board Member Dean Henke withdrew and endorsed Zellers’ right hand man for the seat. Smith will face off against construction company ownder David Hoden, who ran and lost to Zellers (when Zellers was the sitting Speaker) in 2012. Hoden actually did pretty well against Zellers, and has money to put into the race. There is an aura of nepotism surrounding Henke, and rumors are swirling that Henke will step aside for Zellers if/when Zellers loses his gubernatorial primary. Right now, it isn’t terribly interesting, but the DFL has their strong candidate waiting and seeing if there is an opening in this 51% Romney district.
House A
Romney (R) 58-40
Paulsen (R) 67-33
Peppin (R) 64-36
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 51-47
Paulsen (R) 61-39
Zellers (R) 55-45
Likely R
District 35: This is Branden Petersen’s senate district. Peterson burst onto the scene as a 24 year old unabashedly Tea Party backed candidate in 2010, then looked for a swift promotion to the Senate following a double bunking in redistricting. Peterson surprised many by being a leading advocate of the Same Sex Marriage bill that passed in 2013, as he was a cosponsor of the Anti Same Sex Marriage Amendment that was put to the voters (and subsequently defeated) in 2012. Regardless, Petersen isn’t up until 2016, but the house seats in his senate district are. In 35B is actually hope to Republican Jim Abeler, who is running against Mike McFadden in the GOP Senate Primary in August. GOP staffer Abigail Whealan got the endorsement on the first ballot at the convention, but she moves forward with a primary date against Justin Boals. Boals actually was the Independence Party candidate for this seat against Abeler in 2012 pulling a respectable 8%. Still, Boals stands little chance against the well-connected Whealan. The winner of that primary will go up against Peter Perovich (DFL-Ramsey). Perovich is actually a widely respected expert on fisheries, which is kind of a big deal in a a state with >13000 lakes, and more shoreline than California, Florida, and Hawaii combined. It also doesn’t hurt that this district abuts the Mississippi River on the eastern bank. Against Petersen, then an incumbent representative in this district and running for senate, Perovich nearly defeated Paulsen in this half of the district, losing the vote total 50-49. Perovich is going to be strong, but it is a 52% Romney district, which gives the slight edge to Whealan. On the B side the race appears to be far less interesting, as the district is substantially more Republican, and Peggy Scott (R-Andover) is easily expected to win her 4th term in St. Paul. She faces off against Sam Beard, an old Bobby Kennedy(!!!) staffer, and current National Development Council president. Beard lost the primary for this seat in 2012 against Sam Scott, whom Peggy Scott (no relation, AFAIK) defeated in the general election. Beard is old, and appears to have more Washington connections than local. I don’t see him making inroads against Representative Scott.
House A
Romney (R) 52-45
Gaves (D) 51-49
Abeler (R) 59-33-8
Lean R
House B
Romney (R) 57-41
Bachmann (R) 54-46 (~75%)
Paulsen (R) 60-39 (~25%)
Scott (R) 59-41
Safe R
District 36: This is moderate to DFL area along the Mississippi river in the NW suburbs, with B being slightly more Democratic than A. In 2012, Republicans got THE candidate in Mark Uglem, the sitting mayor of Champlain Park. Uglem managed to win a tightly contested race against DFLer Grace Baltich. Taking on Uglem this cycle is teacher and college professor Jefferson Fietek. I don’t think that Fietek is as strong of a candidate as Baltich was, so Uglem looks to be in good shape for 2014. 10-year incumbent DFL Representative Melissa Hortman is a perennial target of the GOP, but she seems to be remarkably consistent in her reelection victories, getting 51-55% against strong GOP opposition. This cycle will be no different, as the Republicans are once again gunning for her with Brooklyn Park City Councilman Peter Crema. As always, Hortman can’t be considered safe in a center-left district against a strong Republican, but we’ve been down this road before, repeatedly.
House A
Romney (R) 49-48
Paulsen (R) 58-41
Uglem (R) 51-49
Likely R
House B
Obama (D) 53-45
Paulsen (R) 54-46
Hortman (D) 55-40
Likely D
District 37: Blaine and Spring Lake Park, with a sliver of Coon Rapids. Blaine leans ever so slightly Republican now, but it used to be a DFL stronghold and is close to 50/50, while Spring Lake Park and Coon Rapids are center-left suburbs that swing violently with the tide. This district is also one of the strongest IP areas in the entire state, and was integral to Jesse Ventura’s victory in 1998. 37A is the more DFL friendly of the two House districts containing the Spring Lake Park and Coon Rapids portions of the district, and now-77 year old Jerry Newton (DFL-Coon Rapids) came out of retirement in 2012 to take back his old seat. He faces the same woman he faced last cycle in GOP Staffer Mandy Benz. Newton won 57-43 last time around, and is a long-time institution in the area. Benz is a solid candidate, but this is too much of an uphill climb for the young operative. In the more Republican 37B, Tim Sanders is a strong 32 year-old incumbent, and survived a primary from the right in 2012. Sanders is generally considered the best long-term prospect in the North Metro for the GOP, but isn’t conservative enough to win a primary for his home congressional district, MN-6. He has a free shot to November this cycle, and seems to be firing on all cylinders in the campaign for this purple district, and will likely over perform his 2012 numbers against retired teacher Susan Witt. Witt has some money coming in from her tenure as head of a local teachers union, but she isn’t a large threat to Sanders.
House A
Obama (D) 53-44
Paulsen (R) 52-47 (60%)
Graves (D) 60-40 (30%)
Ellison (D) 58-42 (10%)
Newton (D) 57-43
Likely D
House B
Romney (R) 49-48
Graves (D) 55-45
Sanders (R) 54-46
Likely R
District 38: This district includes red exurbs and in the NW metro from Lino Lakes to Hugo, with 38B having some affluent purple/bluish suburbs thrown in. This is fairly sparsely populated space with bespeckled with McMansion housing developments. 26-year GOP incumbent Linda Runbeck is running for a 14th term. She is a prohibitive favorite against DFL sacrificial lamb Pat Davern. Former Majority Leader Matt Dean represents the eastern half 38B. I was sort of surprised he even bothered to run for reelection after he was unceremoniously omitted from leadership this cycle. He was part of the internal GOP purge that ultimately ended with 2010 product Kurt Daudt ending up as Minority Leader. But even if his own party pushed him aside, he is running for a 6th term, and his constituents will likely reelect him against his 2012 opponent Greg Pariseau. If open, there would be an outside chance at a DFL pick up with a strong White Bear Lake candidate like Pariseau, but it is much harder against Dean. Still, Pariseau had a solid showing in 2012 which keeps this out of the Safe category.
House A
Romney (R) 54-44
Graves (D) 51-48
Runbeck (R) 58-42
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 52-46
Bachmann (R) 52-48 (25%)
McCollum (D) 50-44 (75%)
Dean (R) 52-48
Likely R
District 39: Eastern Washington County. The Southern half (39B) is dominated by purple Stillwater, with the northern half (39A) of the district dominated by Red Forest Lake. In 39A, the Forest Lake district, 3-term GOP Representative Bob Dettmer is poised to win his 5th term in St. Paul against Some Dude Tim Stender (DFL). Dettmer is quite popular in his house district, and overperforms pretty much every other Republican in the area. In the Stillwater-based district, Republican Kathy Lohmer (R) who was swept in in 2010 survived a hard campaign in her first reelection effort against DFL businessman Tom Degree. Mr. Degree is trying his hand at it again, and actually outraised Lohmer substantially in 2012, but it was all for naught. If my memory serves me correctly, both candidates had significant warchests left over after the last cycle. Either way, Lohmer has to be seen as a strong favorite against her 2012 foe.
House A
Romney (R) 53-45
McCollum (D) 48-45 (25%)
Graves (D) 51-49 (70%)
Cravaack (R) 53-47 (5%)
Dettmer (R) 57-42
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 50-48
McCollum (D) 48-45
Lohmer (R) 53-47
Likely R
District 40: Brooklyn Park. Other than Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Duluth, Brooklyn Park gives the DFL the highest net vote total out of any city in the state. The political weight of this one suburb actually had quite a bit of weight when it comes to congressional cartography. Democrats wanted all of Brooklyn Park in MN-3, while Republicans wanted all of it in MN-5. Ultimately the courts chose to split the city between the two. 40A incumbent Mike Nelson actually has an opponent this cycle in Republican Vietnam Veteran Chuck Sutphen, who ran against Nelson in 2010 when the lines of the district were more slightly more favorable to the GOP. Nelson was first elected in 2002, and hasn’t had a serious challenge to his tenure since. Like her western neighbor Nelson, 40B incumbent Deb Hilstrom is a long-term entrenched incumbent that is in no danger in her sapphire blue district. There was some discussion of her not running for reelection to her House seat when she threw her hat into the ring for the open SoS position. However her and fellow Representative Steve Simon had a cordial endorsement battle, and when Simon won on the first ballot (which was never publicly announced), Hilstrom gracefully conceded, and immediately went back to her cozy legislative perch. The Republican Party is putting up Mali Marvin against Hilstrom, so she is not officially unopposed.
House A
Obama (D) 70-29
Barnes (D) 62-37
Nelson (D) 100% (Unopposed)
Safe R
House B
Obama (D) 68-29
Barnes (D) 57-42 (25%)
Ellison (D) 70-30 (75%)
Hilstrom (D) 71-29
Likely R
District 41: Columbia Heights, Fridley, and New Brighton. These are some quite blue inner ring suburbs you’re going to find. I graduated high school in this district after relocating to the area as a teenager. I actually graduated with Representative Caroline Laine’s (41B) youngest daughter. Representative Laine was a school board member at the time. Connie Bernardy (DFL-41A) won her return to political office under the new lines for 2012, as she had previously served in the House from 2001-2006. She will face Republican lawyer Jeff Phillips. Bernardy is a sharp politician and this is a friendly district for her, so she is safe. The aforementioned Laine is in the bluer of the two districts, and is nearly universally known in the community, as the Laine family name has a long history in the area. The most interesting thing about this race seems to be Constitution Party candidate Tim Utz. Utz has this green campaign mini bus that he brings everywhere. He was the 2010 GOP candidate for this district, and the Constitution Party candidate in 2012. He is quite quixotic, but he does provide some much needed entertainment in the political world. There is also a Republican candidate in against Laine, 26-year-old upstart Camden Pike.
House A
Obama (D) 59-38
Ellison (D) 62-37 (70%)
McCollum (D) 58-36 (30%)
Bernardy (D) 62-38
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 62-35
Ellison (D) 65-34 (70%)
McCollum (D) 58-34 (30%)
Laine (D) 59-28-14
Safe D
District 42: This is northern Ramsey County: marginally DFL area in the north (~42A), and strong DFL area is the south (~42B) Incumbent Representative Dr. Barb Yarusso won her first shot at political office in 2012. Yarusso is a brilliant engineer, and has been working her swingy district hard for her first reelection campaign against Republican UPS manager Randy Jessup. Jessup probably has a little money to throw into the race, but Yarusso has a lot of monied friends that financed her campaign well in 2012. This will likely be an expensive race. The fundamentals favor Yarusso, but Jessup appears to be a better candidate than her 2012 foe, self-proclaimed Christian Activist Russ Bertch. In 42B, there is another professor as the incumbent Representative, Dr. Jason Isaacson (DFL). Isaacson has been a mainstay in DFL campaign circles for quite a long time considering he is only 43 years old himself. 42B is quite a bit bluer than 42A, so Republican nominee Heidi Gunderson has a tougher row to hoe to get to St. Paul. Gunderson and her husband own a small concrete company, but it is unclear if they are able to finance the campaign themselves or not. The first campaign finance report isn’t due out for a while yet, but once that is released, it’ll be clearer. Still, it is tough to see an incumbent as strong as Isaacson losing a 57% Obama district here. If Gunderson doesn’t dump 5 figures into this race at the first filing deadline, it is a strong candidate to go to Safe D.
House A
Obama (D) 51-46
McCollum (D) 53-41
Yarusso (D) 53-47
Lean D
House B
Obama (D) 57-41
McCollum (D) 58-36
Isaacson (D) 58-42
Likely D
District 43: This is a district made up of inner and second ring suburbs to the north and east of St. Paul. It is a lot like district next door district 42, insomuch as 43A in the north is DFL leaning, and 43B is strongly DFL. If anything, district 43 is slightly bluer than 42. Last cycle, there was a hotly contested race for the DFL nomination, with Peter Fischer finally prevailing. Republican friends of mine were crowing about how Stacey Stout was an amazing candidate, that her campaign was flush with cash, and she was going to take this redrawn district from the DFL. I never really bought into the Stout hype, and she lost, but it was a 6-point race which is a decent showing for a Republican here. Stout is running again against Fischer, but I have not heard the same level of fervor associated with her campaign this cycle as last. I think she really believed she would win going into November 2012, and the 6-point loss took the wind out of her. In 43B, 10-year incumbent DFL representative Leon Lillie is running for reelection, and is all but assured another term in the bluer of these two House districts. Lillie faces the awesomely named Justice Whitehorn (R) in November. Whitehorn is a business consultant, and a PhD candidate in his own right (lots of highly educated people live in Ramsey County, and their candidates seem to reflect that). Whitehorn appears to have little political experience though, and Lillie is a strong incumbent in a blue district.
House A
Obama (D) 56-42
McCollum (D) 58-36
Yarusso (D) 53-47
Likely D
House B
Obama (D) 57-40
McCollum (D) 59-33
Isaacson (D) 60-39
Safe D
District 44: Rich suburbs but not really exurbs. Plymouth used to be a Republican stronghold, but has begun to show signs of leftward movement. While Minnetonka is a pretty DFL city, and moving further that direction steadily after formerly resembling Plymouth politically. This is Terri Bonoff’s senate district, and she is widely considered the DFL’s top potential recruit for MN-3, but she is too skittish to take on Paulsen. Bonoff isn’t up for reelection until 2016, however. 44A is the Republican part of this district, and includes most of the city of Plymouth and is represented by Sarah Anderson (R) Sarah Anderson, at only 40 years old, may have a future in higher office down the road and would be a solid candidate to replace Paulsen if he chooses to run for higher office. A loss however may doom any prospects for advancement politically for her. I had given her a Safe R ranking in 2012, and to my surprise the race was quite a bit closer than I anticipated against a nobody Democrat. This caused me to take a look into Plymouth’s election results, and it appears as though the city has hit the inflection point that Minnetonka hit in 2004, and Edina hit in 2008, where the population no longer expands, and the Republican strength in the city decreases. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out, as if Plymouth starts voting like Minnetonka, Paulsen’s replacement will have a tough time getting elected as a Republican in MN-3. Representative Anderson faces off again against Businesswoman Audrey Britton again after defeating Britton 51-49 two years ago. I am curious to see how Plymouth votes in 2014, but I think that Anderson wins in 2014, and then looks for a soft place to land in 2016. In 44B, DFLer John Benson chose to retire after 4 terms representing Minnetonka. Benson is a tireless campaigner, and would have been safe in 2014, but his retirement puts his district in play. Further complicating this picture is there was no endorsement at the DFL convention, so we have a 3-way August primary on the DFL side between Jon Applebaum, Jon Tollefson, and Tony Wagner. This is a race that I find it nearly impossible to handicap. I would say that Tollefson is probably behind the other two. Applebaum seems to have the campaign energy, and backing of some deep pocketed donors and unions. Wagner on the other hand is a sitting member of the Minnetonka City Council, and has Washington connections. Gun to my head, I say Wagner by a curly one, but I would not be at all surprised to see Applebaum, or even Tollefson in a 34-33-33 race. Either way, the winner of that primary on August 12th will meet unknown Republican businessman Ryan Rutzick in November. I am surprised that Republicans couldn’t get a stronger candidate here. This race just screams of potential for a divided primary making a sliver of room for the opposite party to take an unfriendly seat. But Rutzick it is, which actually moves this to Lean D from Tossup, in my view.
House A
Romney (R) 51-48
Paulsen (R) 60-40
Anderson (R) 51-49
Lean R
House B
Obama (D) 54-44
Paulsen (R) 54-46
Benson (D) 56-44
Lean D
District 45: Cystal, New Hope and Golden Valley. These are more working class inner suburbs, and home to General Mills. Representative Lyndon Carlson has won here without campaigning every biennium since 1972. Carlson is 74 years old, is the co-Dean of the House (along with Phyllis Kahn), and will be carried out of the Capital feet first. Republicans put up charter school advocate Richard Lieberman against Johnson, but it will be 60-40 Johnson, as it seems to be about those numbers every cycle for him. In 45B, Mike Freiberg (DFL-Golden Valley) won his seat for life in 2012. He faces Republican Alma Wetzker in November, but 45B is even bluer than 45A, so the race is effectively moot.
House A
Obama (D) 59-39
Paulsen (R) 54-46 (25%)
Ellison (D) 62-38 (75%)
Carlson (D) 60-40
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 63-34
Ellison (D) 64-36
Freiberg (D) 66-34
Safe D
District 46: St. Louis Park and Hopkins. St. Louis Park has a large liberal Jewish population (including the Franken family), and Hopkins is a center-left upper-middle-class suburb. Outside of Minneapolis and St. Paul proper, this is probably the most liberal district in the state. 46A incumbent Representative Ryan Winkler (DFL) is running against a noname Republican named Timothy O Manthey. Google doesn’t know who Manthey is, so that is about the extent of time you should spend thinking about that race. In 45B however, incumbent Steve Simon is the DFL candidate to replace the retiring Mark Ritchie as Secretary of State, which leaves that an open seat. Hopkins City councilwoman Cheryl (DFL) Youakim cleared the field when she announced her candidacy in December 2013 on the heels of Simon’s announcement. Her early entrance kept the endorsement from ever becoming interesting. She should run all over Republican nominee Brian Bjornson without difficulty in November.
House A
Obama (D) 64-34
Paulsen (R) 52-48 (20%)
Ellison (D) 68-32 (80%)
Winkler (D) 66-34
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 66-32
Ellison (D) 67-33
Simon (D) 70-30
Safe D
District 47: (Does anyone else get annoyed having to jump back and forth across the metro to follow the numbers numerically???) Republican vote sink in the SW exurbs. The DFL has exactly zero presence here. Ernie Leidiger (R) is retiring after two very rocky terms in St. Paul in 46A. Leidiger entered the legislature as a bit of a loose cannon in 2010, and it got worse from there. His business failed, he owes hundreds of thousands of dollars in back taxes, is getting his property foreclosed on, and his wife left him under shady circumstances. I don’t agree with Representative Leidiger on pretty much anything, but seeing someone’s life collapse on such a catastrophic level is not something I enjoy. I hope for his sake that he is able to get his life back in order soon, and being in office is not the place to do such things. His retirement opens up a Safely Republican seat however, and we have a Republican primary to look forward to in August. There are a pair of men vying for the seat. Simply put businessman Bob Frey is garnering a lot of support from the fringier elements of the Tea Party in the legislature, and Wiconia mayor Jim Nash is getting support from the more mainstream conservative factions of the legislature. This is a district where being the loudest conservative likely gets you the nomination, and Bob Frey has been making his campaign about enacting anti-sodomy laws, so my money is on Frey. You likely couldn’t fit a piece of paper between them ideologically, however. The winner of the primary faces token Democratic Matt Gieseke. Gieseke is 23, but looks all of 16. For the second cycle in a row, GOP Representative Joe Hoppe (R-47B) has no opponent of any type. He joins Ton Cornish as the only representatives to not face an opponent in 2012 or 2014.
House A
Romney (R) 63-35
Paulsen (R) 75-24 (15%)
Bachmann (R) 56-44 (85%)
Leidiger (R) 63-37
Safe D
House B
Romney (R) 56-42
Paulsen (R) 65-35
Hoppe (R) 100% (Unopposed)
Safe D
District 48: The southern part of this district is fairly Republican Eden Prairie (This is Erik Paulsen’s stomping grounds), but the northern part is clearly center-left portions of Minnetonka that aren’t in 44B, as well as a slice of Eden Prairie. Freshman DFL Represnetative Yvonne Selcer unseated incumbent Republican Kirk Stensrud in one of the highest profile races in 2012. Stensrud is back for a rematch in 2014, and this will be one of the most hotly contested, and expensive, races in the state yet again. It was so close last time, that I am going to start it off as a Toss-up. In the more conservative 48B we have a right vs. center right primary before we get to November. Deputy Minority Leader Jennifer Loon (R) has drawn a primary opponent over her vote for legalizing same sex marriage last year. Loon is looking to be the ONLY survivor of the GOP primary process from the vote last year. She faces religious activist and housewife Sheila Kihne. There was no endorsement given at the convention this spring, so the state party is officially neutral. It wouldn’t surprise me if Kihne beats her in August. Though I suspect that Loon, a skilled politician, will win by the skin of her teeth in the primary, as Eden Prairie isn’t especially socially conservative. If Loon wins, she is safe in the general election. But if a culture warrior political neophyte like Kihne wins, the race could flip to the DFL. The standard-bearer for the Democrats is teacher Joan Howe-Pullis. Pullis was a major player for Minnesota United for All Families (the group that worked to defeat the constitutional amendment banning gay marriage in 2012). For what it’s worth, the amendment failed in 48B by a 40-60 margin. The race is uninteresting if Loon Wins, but moves to Toss-up if Kihne wins.
House A
Obama (D) 52-46
Paulsen (R) 57-43
Selcer (D) 50.34-49.52
Toss-up
House B
Romney (R) 52-47
Paulsen (R) 63-37
Loon (R) 59-41
Likely R
District 49: Edina and west Bloomington. The western part of Bloomington is marginal, while the eastern part is quite blue. Edina used to be an affluent Republican stronghold, but has quickly become marginal, and even a tinge blue. 49A is represented by Ron Erhardt. Erhart is an elderly man at 84. For decades he was an Arne Carlson Republican in the legislature, but he was one of the first victims of the recent fad of Republicans primarying their own in 2008. He then switched parties to the Democrats with the standard “The party left me” mantra. He came back and won his old seat back as a Democrat in 2012 at age 83. Erhardt is in no danger of losing a general election in Edina, only a Republican primary apparently. Erhardt faces Republican restaurateur Dario Anselmo in November. Anselmo is best known for owning one of the mainstays of Uptown Minneapolis, which is hipster central. 49B is about as politically even district as you are going to find anywhere. Paul Mazorol (R) won this seat in 2010, but when faced with a rematch against the man he edged out a cycle earlier, he opted to retire instead. This cleared the path for Paul Rosenthal to fairly easily return to St. Paul in his former district. Rosenthal is now running for reelection in 2014, and he faces Republican retired accountant Barb Sutter. Sutter is not from the area, or the state, and only moved here when her husband retired from the air force. It is interesting that Republicans couldn’t find a stronger candidate here, as Rosenthal is not bulletproof, but against a nobody he is very likely to win.
House A
Obama (D) 52-47
Paulsen (R) 58-42 (70%)
Ellison (D) 55-45 (30%)
Erhardt (D) 56-44
Likely D
House B
Obama (D) 52-46
Paulsen (R) 56-44
Rosenthal (D) 53-47
Likely D
District 50: Eastern Bloomington and Richfield. I actually moved to this district in 2012. I would be surprised if Republicans came close to winning anything here. It is quite liberal. DFLer Linda Slocum in 50A is running for reelection against Republican Some Dude Dean Mumbleau, which is a formality. Likewise, fellow DFLer Ann Lenczewski is running against Republican Zabier Bicott who ran for Bloomington City Council in 2013, but that is just as much of a formality as Slocum’s race.
House A
Obama (D) 64-34
Barnes (D) 54-46 (45%)
Ellison (D) 66-33 (55%)
Slocum (D) 62-30
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 57-41
Paulsen (R) 51-49
Lenczewski (D) 65-35
Safe D
District 51: Burnsville and Eagan. This is really swingy territory in the south metro. It was swept by Republicans in 2010, and swept by Democrats in 2012. It is also home to MN-2 DFL candidate Mike Obermueller, himself one of the Democratic victims in20120 Democratic victims, Sandra Masin, won her rematch with Diane Anderson (R). Anderson has opted not to go for a best of 3 in 2014. Instead, Republicans were unable to come up with the 60% for the endorsement of either Victor Lake or Andrea Todd-Harlin. Lake is an interesting candidate, as he is only 27, and an immigrant of Uzbekistan (cue Herman Cain joke here). Lake actually lead the endorsement convention as the grassroots candidate, but couldn’t get over the hump. Todd-Harlin is a more traditional candidate, and may be the favorite in August against Lake. This is sure to be a tightly contested race with the marginal and elastic nature of the area. In the slightly redder 51B, incumbent freshman Laurie Halverson is trying to win her first reelection campaign after unseating GOP incumbent Doug Wardlow in 2012. Representative Halverson is facing off against paralegal Jen Wilson (R) in November. This would be a candidate for a Toss-up race, and may move in that direction, but Wilson is not as strong of a candidate, and doesn’t have the resume of Wardlow. So Lead D for now, but it could change up or down depending on how the campaign plays out. Such is the nature of swing districts!
House A
Obama (D) 55-42
Obermueller (D) 52-48
Masin (D) 55-44
Lean D
House B
Obama (D) 51-47
Kline (R) 50.16-49.73
Halverson (D) 52-48
Lean D
District 52: This is the liberal parts of northern Dakota County that was added to Kline’s district in the 2012 redistricting, moving the needle on its PVI. The Republicans have a small presence at the southern fringe of this district in the southern part of 52B, but this is DFL territory. This district is a lot like District 50, which lies to the northwest. Republican Joe Blum is looking for a rematch against 10-year incumbent DFL Representative Rick Hansen. Unlikely to be any closer than the 25 point margin it was in 2012. First elected in 2002, Joe Atkins (DFL) has been one of the more conservative members of the caucus relative to his district. The members of his party to his right hail from MUCH redder districts He has not been challenged in a primary. I have no problem with him personally, but I know some of my more liberal contemporary grumble about him when he comes up in conversation. Nevertheless his constituents love him, and he overperforms other Democrats in the area. He does face a Republican in Don Lee this fall, but Mr. Lee seems to be running as a hardline, red meat conservative, and hasn’t gained much traction. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Atkins north of 70% this cycle.
House A
Obama (D) 59-39
Obermueller (D) 59-41
Hansen (D) 62-37
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 53-45
Kline (R) 50.04-49.78
Atkins (D) 66-34
Safe D
District 53: Western Woodbury and Maplewood. Maplewood is a very awkwardly shaped city, and the part of it in district 53 is the SW tendril. Maplewood is quite DFL, and Woodbury is slightly Republican leaning. DFL Representative Joanne Ward won her first election for the open 53A seat in 2012, and is now drawn Republican Lukas Czech as a dance partner in 2014. Czech suffered major spinal cord damage during an industrial accident a while back, and is completely wheelchair bound. He has no political experience to speak of, but is running on his personal story or struggle and recovery. This is a hard district for a Republican to be winning in though, especially a political newbie. 53B is home of Andrea Kieffer, who gained notoriety as voting with the DFL to legalize same-sex marriage in Minnesota in 2013. Kieffer saw the writing on the wall when anti same-sex marriage advocates started gunning for the heads of the GOP defectors, and chose to retire. In her stead, the Republicans nominated Kelly Fenton. Fenton spent most of her career as a teacher and school official in Texas. She has political connections from her time as campaign manager for Ted Lillie (R) in his winning campaign in 2010, and his losing campaign in 2012. Fenton is going to be a slight favorite against the DFL candidate Kay Hendrickson, a member of the Woodbury Planning Commission, and adjunct professor of Healthcare Management. Hendrickson seems like a candidate with a decent resume, so I have my eye on her. But this isn’t a district that is an even playing field for Democrats, although not out of reach.
House A
Obama (D) 56-41
McCollum (D) 57-36
Ward (D) 56-44
Safe D
House B
Romney (R) 52-47
McCollum (D) 47.59-47.28
Kieffer (R) 55-45
Lean R
District 54: This is another one of the districts where the House seats are very different from one another. 54A is quite decisively DFL friendly and centered around eastern Cottage Grove, and South St Paul (a suburb, not a neighborhood of St. Paul proper). Freshman Dan Schoen (DFL) won this redrawn district in 2012 when it was open, and now faces Republican Matt Kowalski in his first reelection effort. Kowalski is a golfing supply story worker, and not really a familiar name with politicos around Minnesota (or the grocery store owners, as they are unrelated). Schoen will defeat Kowalski handily. 54B is swingy, but marginally Republican upballot. Representing there is a 12-year incumbent Republican Denny McNamara there. McNamara is well known, and popular. He is safe against token Democrat Donald Slaten. Democrats would make a serious play at 54B if it were open, as this is Senator Katie Sieben’s home turf, but McNamara is bulletproof there.
House A
Obama (D) 56-42
Obermueller (D) 54-46 (90%)
McCollum (D) 58-32 (10%)
Schoen (D) 55-38-7 (Independence Party)
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 49.15-48.57
Kline (R) 53-46 (90%)
McCollum (D) 51-43 (10%)
McNamara (R) 57-42
Safe R
District 55: Scott County. This is Republican territory to the core, but there are some purple dots starting to show up in places like Shakopee (which is most of 55A). 55A Representative Mike Beard (R) is calling it quits after 6 terms in St. Paul. To replace Representative Beard there was a contested convention between construction contractor and home schooling advocate Mike Mackenthun and former Shakopee School Board member Bob Loonan. Mackenthun ultimately won the endorsement, but Loonan shortly thereafter declared that he was going forward with a primary anyways. Loonan seems to be a standard business conservative, and Mackenthun appears to be a culture warrior type. I think Mackenthun ends up winning, but unlikely most endorsed candidates, the individual legislatures have shied away from endorsing him (which is standard procedure for all candidates). If there is an endorsed candidate that is going to lose the nomination this year, it’s Mackenthun. Waiting for the winner of that primary is the strongest possible Democrat in Shakopee City Councilman Jay Whiting. Whiting is quite conservative for a Democrat, and has shown that he can win in Republican turf. I don’t think he can beat Loonan, but I think he would give Mackenthun all sorts of headaches and could potentially catch lightning in a bottle. To further throw a wrench in this, the Independence Party has a candidate that will likely siphon off a few votes himself. 55B looks to be a lot less interesting than 55A. Tony Albright may only be a freshman, but he seems to be settling nicely into incumbency in his cozy Republican district. He does face Democratic businessman Kevin Burkart and an IP candidate as well, but those two combined won’t keep Albright from hitting 60%+
House A
Romney (R) 52-46
Kline (R) 58-42
Beard (R) 55-45
Likely R
House B
Romney (R) 60-38
Kline (R) 65-35
Albright (R) 63-36
Safe R
District 56: Swingy Burnsville to the east (56B) and marginally Republican Savage to the west (56A) 56A is currently represented by Pam Myhra, who is running as Marty Seifert’s running mate in the GOP primary for governor, which may leave her house seat vacant if she and Seifert prevail in August. In such an event, the district’s Republican Party would hand pick her replacement Officially right now, she is running for reelection though. If she loses the nomination for Lt. Governor, and I suspect she will, she will be a near shoo-in for reelection in her seat. Given the uncertainty around this, and the fact that it is only a 51% Republican district, I am going to keep it at Likely R, but it may or may not move to Safe R depending on what happens in the next month. 56B is actually a district with an incumbent that I am currently predicting to flip from D to R. Democrat Will Morgan won an incredibly tight race against Republican Roz Peterson , winning by 170 votes. Peterson is once again running against Morgan, and without the 2012 tailwind, I think the conditions are right for Peterson to win the rematch in this marginal seat that Obama carried by 66 votes. Still, Morgan is 3-1 in elections to this district, winning in 06 08 and 12, with a loss in 10 (to the aforementioned Pam Myhra pre-redistricting).
House A
Romney (R) 51-47
Kline (R) 57-43
Beard (R) 54-46
Likely R
House B
Obama (D) 49.07-48.78
Kline (R) 55-45
Morgan (D) 50.32-49.52
Lean R
District 57: Rosemount and Apple Valley. This is swingy area around Rosemount, and solidly Republican area around Apple Valley, and the DFL is not investing top staff here, nor did they recruit top recruits. Democrats actually won this senate district when Greg Clausen defeated Pat Hall, brother of next door district 56 Senator Dan Hall, so Demorats can win here. Tara Mack, at the ripe old age of 31 is already looking at her 4rd term in the lower chamber. Mack has proven to be a strong incumbent in her swingy Rosemount based district. Representative Mack has avoided any serious challenger, and faces Some Dude Bruce Folken. In the more conservative Apple Valley based 57B, freshman Anna Wills appears to be well positioned to get a second term against Democrat Denise Packard.
House A
Obama (D) 51-47
Kline (R) 53-47
Mack (R) 53-46
Safe R
House B
Obama (D) 49.07-48.78
Kline (R) 55-45
Morgan (D) 50.32-49.52
Lean R
District 58: Lakeville and southern Dakota County. In the conservative Lakeville based 58A we have an open seat due to Liz Holberg’s (R) retirement. Holberg was generally seen as a bit of a gadfly, a grandmotherly figure that was prone to off-kilter comments. Her latest political move came as a shock to most, as she is retiring from the Minnesota legislature in a safe seat to run for County Commissioner in Dakota County, a huge demotion. The race to replace her was developing into quite the event, as former Lakeville City Council candidate David Bares was running against Lakeville businessman Jon Koznick, but at the convention Koznick won on the first ballot, and Bares bowed out and endorsed Koznick. The Democrats are running Amy Willingham against him. Willingham has no previous political experience and is running a single issue campaign for school funding. Regardless, this district is quite red, and Koznick will win. This is a place where I never would have expected a Republican to stick his neck out in favor of gay marriage, and especially not one that I expected to survive politically, but that is exactly what we have here with Pat Garofalo. Garofalo’s vote was the biggest surprise once the votes were tallied, by a wide margin. Moreover, Garofalo never even considered retirement. And unlike the other apostates in the GOP caucus, he didn’t even get a primary challenge at all. It was a very odd series of events. In the end though, Garofalo is going to win another term in the legislature, in spite of his NBA related tweets.
House A
Obama (D) 56-42
Kline (R) 62-38
Holberg (R) 59-41
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 56-42
Kline (R) 60-40
Garofalo (R) 59-40
Safe R
Districts 59-63. These seats are all Minneapolis, and all are going to go 70-30 DFL+. I will keep the segments brief unless there is something important involving the DFL primary
District 59: This is the north side of Minneapolis, home of Keith Ellison, and the closest thing to a majority Minority district you can get in the state. 59A incumbent Joe Mullery and Raymond Dehn are running for reelection.
House A
Obama (D) 84-14
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 80-17
Safe D
District 60: This district covers Northeast Minneapolis the U of M campus (and its 51,000 students), and a small sliver into Cedar-Riverside, and it’s large Somali community. 60A is uninteresting with Diane Loeffler running again. 60B however has seen some of the worst fireworks of the entire election cycle. It started with the precinct caucuses where supporters of Minneapolis School Board Member Mohamud Noor tried to hijack the precinct caucuses away from the district’s DFL board members, going so far as becoming violent, with supporters of 42-year incumbent Phyllis Kahn and supporters of Noor assaulting eachother (the precinct in question is nearly universally Somali). The caucuses draw almost no interest from the University of Minnesota students that comprise the rest of the district outside of that precinct on the other side of the river. Essentially it was an attempted Coup to oust Kahn. Eventually the police allowed the caucus take place weeks later, and ended in a draw. Noor’s supporters wanted the endorsement given to him at the caucus, as Kahn would be harder to defeat in a primary where more college students would vote (the vast majority of the population are actually on the U of M side of the district, but almost no one caucuses). This is going to be messy regardless of who wins. It is a safely Democratic district in November for either candidate, but this has been a big black eye on the DFL locally.
House A
Obama (D) 77-19
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 76-19
Safe D
District 61: This is Southwest Minneapolis, which is the most affluent area in the city. Minneapolis is known as the City of Lakes, and this district holds more than its fair share, and the homes on the lakes are rather palatial. This doesn’t mean they are any more conservative than the poorer parts of the city, as this is as Democratic as the poverty stricken 59th district. Representative Frank Hornstein is running for reelection as is Speaker Paul Thissen.
House A
Obama (D) 78-19
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 78-20
Safe D
District 62: This is a combination of Hipsters on the western side of the district, diverse areas in the center and south, and college students on the Northern edge. This is the most Democratic, most liberal, and most politically homogenous district in the entire state. Representative Karen Clark is running for her 17th term in 62A. as is Susan Allen in 62B
House A
Obama (D) 86-9
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 87-10
Safe D
District 63: This is South Minneapolis, running from Downtown to the Airport. Incumbents Jim Davnie (63A), and Jean Wagenius (63B) are all returning for more time in St. Paul.
House A
Obama (D) 83-14
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 74-24
Safe D
Districts 64-67: This is essentially St. Paul. Again, much like in Minneapolis, all of these seats are 100% Safe DFL, and will be won by blowout margins.
District 64: This is what is known as the West Side of St. Paul. It has many different pockets of different groups, far too many to try and mention here. Incumbent Erin Murphy (64A) is running again. Michael Paymar (64B) however is retiring, which triggered a flood of prospective candidates. Long story short Dave Pinto won the endorsement, and everyone else fell in line and dropped out.
House A
Obama (D) 77-20
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 70-27
Safe D
District 65: This is Downtown St. Paul, and some surrounding areas. Representatives Rena Moran (65A) and Carlos Mariani (65B) are running again.
House A
Obama (D) 83-14
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 77-20
Safe D
District 66: This is the northern edge of St. Paul, and includes the State Fair Grounds, and a tiny sliver of Roseville to balance population. Alice Hausman (66A) and John Lesch (66B) will be reelected to their House seats easily.
House A
Obama (D) 66-32
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 79-19
Safe D
District 67: This is the east side of St. Paul. Tim Mahoney and Sheldon Johnson have represented the East Side of St. Paul since the 1990s, and both are running for another term this year.
House A
Obama (D) 76-22
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 74-23
Safe D